Evacuation Warning Issued for Carmel, River and Dolan Fire Burn Scar Areas

CLARIFICATION FROM MCSO: If you are not living in close proximity to a burn scar, you may have received a message in error. If you are unsure if you are in an evacuation zone visit the evacuation map: https://bit.ly/2MpXkgU

WHEN: Effective January 25th at 4:00 p.m.

WHERE: Carmel, River and Dolan Fires burn scar areas

WHAT: The Monterey County Sheriff’s Office has issued an Evacuation Warning for areas within and two miles downslope of the Carmel Fire, River Fire, and Dolan Fire burn scars due to the upcoming atmospheric river and the high likelihood for debris flows. There is also currently a Flash Flood Watch in place.

The Evacuation Warning will take effect Monday. January 25th at 4:00 p.m.

This warning is being given well in advance of our incoming storm system due to anticipated rainfall. Beginning late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, the US National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey California is predicting 8 to 10 inches of rain over the course of the storm in the Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest in Monterey County, which would impact all wildfire burn scar areas.

The Evacuation Warning that will be in place will be upgraded to an Evacuation Order if the Flash Flood Watch in place upgrades to a Flash Flood Warning, but those who live in dangerous areas are highly encouraged to consider leaving sooner for their safety. Due to heavy winds, those who need to leave one of the impacted areas could find exit routes impassable. Once an Evacuation Order has been issued there will likely be less than 30 minutes to evacuate.

An Evacuation Warning means individuals need to be prepared to leave immediately with a ‘go bag’ and planned evacuation route. If your situation requires more time to evacuate than an Evacuation Order allows, consider leaving early to avoid delays due to traffic congestion.

An Evacuation Order is expected to be issued at 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday, January 26th.

If you feel that your life is in danger, do not wait for an emergency notification.

To find out what evacuation zone you are in, please visit: https://montereyco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=8bf14faf5680431a8c961274ced2245f

Winter Storm Preparedness: http://www.co.monterey.ca.us/winterstorm

To register for emergency alerts, visit: http://www.alertmontereycounty.org

To receive text message updates, text: Text “MCWINTER” to 888777

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Advertencia de evacuación emitida para las cicatrices de quemaduras de los incendios Carmel, River y Dolan
CUANDO: Efectivo el 25 de enero a las 4:00 p.m.
DÓNDE: Las cicatrices de quemaduras de los incendios Carmel, River y Dolan
QUÉ: La Oficina de Alguaciles del Condado de Monterey ha emitido una advertencia de evacuación para las áreas dentro y dos millas cuesta abajo de las cicatrices de quemaduras de los incendios Carmel, River y Dolan debido al próximo río atmosférico y la alta probabilidad de flujos de escombros. Actualmente también hay una alerta de inundaciones repentinas.
La advertencia de evacuación entrará en vigor el lunes 25 de enero a las 4:00 p.m
Esta advertencia se da mucho antes de nuestro sistema de tormentas entrante debido a las lluvias anticipadas. Desde la noche del martes hasta la madrugada del miércoles, el servicio meteorológico nacional pronostica de 8 a 10 pulgadas de lluvia durante el transcurso de la tormenta en las montañas de Santa Lucía y el bosque nacional Los Padres en el condado de Monterey, lo que afectaría todas las áreas de cicatrices de quemaduras de incendios forestales.
La advertencia de evacuación que se implementará se actualizará a una orden de evacuación si la alerta de inundación repentina en su lugar se actualiza a una advertencia de inundación repentina, pero se recomienda encarecidamente a aquellos que viven en áreas peligrosas que consideren irse antes por su seguridad. Debido a los fuertes vientos, quienes necesiten salir de una de las áreas impactadas podrían encontrar las rutas de salida intransitables. Una vez que se ha emitido una orden de evacuación, es probable que haya menos de 30 minutos para evacuar.
Una advertencia de evacuación significa que las personas deben estar preparadas para irse de inmediato con una “bolsa de viaje” y una ruta de evacuación planificada. Si su situación requiere más tiempo para evacuar del que permite una orden de evacuación, considere salir temprano para evitar retrasos debido a la congestión del tráfico.
Se espera que se emita una orden de evacuación a las 4:00 p.m. el martes 26 de enero.
Si siente que su vida está en peligro, no espere una notificación de emergencia.
• Para saber en qué zona de evacuación se encuentra, visite: http://www.co.monterey.ca.us/winterstorm
• Para registrarse para recibir alertas de emergencia, visite: http://www.alertmontereycounty.org
• Para recibir actualizaciones por mensaje de texto, envía “MCWINTER” al 888777

From Daniel Swain of Weather West:
“During the Wednesday/Thursday cold frontal passage, it is more likely than not that hourly rainfall rates will exceed thresholds capable of triggering significant debris flows over portions of the LNU Complex, CZU Complex, SCU Complex, and Dolan Fire burn scars from 2020. The highest risks to people may be in/near the LNU/CZU scars due to proximity to populated areas, but the highest meteorological risk may actually be in Monterey County.

This is because the front and associated AR is expected to stall somewhere along the Monterey/SLO County coast on Wednesday before lifting slightly back *northward* by Wednesday night as a mesoscale frontal wave develops. It’s still not 100% clear exactly where this stall will occur, but I would expect a swath of widespread 5-10 inch rainfall where this occurs (and locally 15 inches or more in orographically favored parts of the stall zone). Some flooding could occur even outside of wildfire risk zones around the location of this stall. Right now, Monterey County looks like the most likely bullseye for this–but it could happen as far north as Santa Cruz County. Even absent a stall, rain rates across the Santa Cruz Mountain burn scar will be concerning–but if the AR does find its way back north for a second pass, local concerns will be further exacerbated.”

Interactive #GIS map showing risk of #DebisFlow for wildland fires. For the legend and to get the most benefit from the map, please click “Map tips” in upper left corner. To search on address click Menu > Search. #CAwx

Open #GISsurfer map: bit.ly/39Y5BRA

2/_ The map opens at the #CZULightningComplex. You can pan the map to other 2020 fires and see the same type of data. Be patient! The map might be slow to refresh. It depends in part on how much other work the GIS server is doing.

3/_ The map can display the risk of debris flow for fires back to 2018. Here is one way to make a map to see the risk of debris flow for a fire prior to 2020:
A. Click the basemap button and look under the “Overlays” heading
B. Click “Turn off all overlays”

4/_
C. Pan the map to the approximate area.
D. Click the basemap button, look under the “Overlays” heading and turn on layers in the following order:
ESRI roads and labels
State boundary
(year) Basin combined hazard
All streams rivers lakes
Segment combined hazard

CAVEAT: I HAVE NOT TRIED THIS MYSELF AND CANNOT HELP YOU NAVIGATE IT, BUT THIS NAVIGATING IS FOR FIRES BEFORE 2020 AS I UNDERSTAND IT.

Here are some graphics to illustrate some of what we are facing this upcoming week.

Do you remember March of 1995? I will never forget it. I was on a ski trip with the Pacific Valley High School. As we rushed to get home, the Carmel River Bridge washed away, so we had to go down the 101. It was flooded and it closed right behind us. We tried to get across FHL, but both bridges were out. We went down to Paso and had dinner and called home. Highway 1 was out at Soda Springs. We got hotel rooms in San Simeon. Cal Trans told us to come up the 1 in the early morning and they would punch us through. Soda Springs was just about washed away, but Cal Trans got us through, and Rock Knocker was there. I am sure you have your memories, too. They all came flooding back to me when I read John Lindsey’s ominous tweet today. I needed to wait a day before I posted it.

John wrote: “Today’s #ECMWF & #GFS models look eerily similar to March 1995, when an intense cold front (AR) stalled over our area and tapped into a plume of subtropical moisture that stretched to Hawaii. The Santa Lucia mountains above Cambria reported 12+ inches of rain in 24 hours! #CAwx”

As someone reminded me, we were already saturated in March of 1995. Also, MoCo would not open up the mouth of the river. However, we have burn scars which we didn’t have in 1995.

If this forecast verifies, Tuesday-Thursday will be insane.

From Supervisor Mary Adams: “With yesterday’s rain, Monterey County Office of Emergency Services had reports of some debris flow and is encouraging residents who live one to two miles from any of the burned areas to be on heightened alert. Winter is not over yet and more rain is coming!

All residents should sign up to receive emergency alerts at http://www.alertmontereycounty.org; these alerts can provide lifesaving evacuation notifications. Evacuation is often the only way to protect yourself from a debris flow. If you feel your life is in danger, DO NOT wait for an alert to evacuate, move away from the path of a debris flow as fast as you can!

If you are not sure about the proximity of your property to the burn scar or need information on preparedness for debris flow, please check the Monterey County Office of Emergency Winter Storm Preparedness webpage at: https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/government/departments-a-h/administrative-office/office-of-emergency-services/ready-monterey-county/winter-storm

The Dolan Fire Area Road and Trail Closure 05-07-51-21-02 is in effect through May 21, 2021. The closure has been reduced to the fire perimeter. Areas that remain closed are areas where vegetation has burned off and pose a safety risk from rockslides, landslides and hazard trees.

7:30 pm — Note: the .67” thus far at Chalk Peak — in or near the burn area of Dolan Fire. There has also already been a mud flow on the River Fire burn area about 6 pm tonight.

Interesting comments from Daniel Swain: “Models appear to be honing on the increasing potential for a slow-moving/stalled #AtmosphericRiver somewhere in CA between SF and LA mid next week. That would lead to potentially significant flash flood risk, especially if this happens near recent burn scars. Stay tuned. “

It’s still early, but there are increasing signs that a strong, dynamic, & cold storm could affect CA toward middle of next wk. Heavy rainfall, very heavy mountain snowfall, & strong winds poss. Could be issues w/2020 burn scar flood/debris flow risk, esp. Santa Cruz Mtns.

And John Lindsey adds this: “An intense low-pressure system will produce fresh gale-force to whole gale-force (47 to 63 mph) southerly winds with gusts to 70 mph and periods of moderate to heavy rain Wednesday through Friday morning as a possible Atmospheric River (AR) taps into subtropical moisture. Total rainfall amounts with this storm could range between 3.00 and 5.00 plus inches.

This evening from Dave Hovde of SLO: “Update on short-term forecast: The Friday into Saturday system looks to arrive Friday morning, peak in the afternoon but linger a bit into Saturday morning.  I had said less than .25" but looks like up to .50" is possible based on recent modeling.”

From NOAA Forecast discussion: 
Today will be the last of the mild and dry days before a significant shift towards a progressive (and wet) weather pattern takes hold over at least the next 7 to 10 days across the Bay Area and Central Coast. At least 3 to 4 wet systems will move over or near the region through this time frame-- with the system arriving midweek next week looking to be the most significant. One weather forecaster described it as a “conga line of storms,” a term that has become more prevalent in the last decade or two. 

3 pm — Forest service has made access they’re releasing 7831 and the other engines are going to be on standby helping with mop up

2:45 pm photo by Rhea Withrow who says: Yes, looks like it’s in the green island between the seefelds and hermitage. I had asked her to confirm my red circle around the area of the fire.

2 pm – from chp site:

2:04 PM	8	[11] 1039 BIG SUR FIRE
1:58 PM	7	[9] A27-012 BIG SUR FIRE HAS UNITS IN THE AREA INVESTIGATING
1:42 PM	6	[7] 12 / ENGINES UNABLE TO MAKE IT UP TO FIRE
1:27 PM	5	[6] 12 CPZ PER SCANNER FIRE ADV LUCIA LODGE REP A FIRE ON THE HILL BEHIND THEIR HOUSING
1:24 PM	4	[5] 1039 STATE PARKS
1:22 PM	3	[4] 1039 MTYCOM
1:21 PM	2	[3] 12 NOTIFY FIRE AND STATE PARKS
1:20 PM	1	[1] 12 SMOKE F/FIRE SR1 POSS NEAR HERMITAGE JSO NACIMIENTO FERGUSON NOT IN A BURN AREA AND NOT ASH
Unit Information

1:45 pm — Per scanner traffic as reported by Chris Buonocore, and calling for more resources. I can’t see anything specific, but it is pretty hazy here. Still pretty windy. Wild Cad-LPF had this:

01/19/2021 11:25

LPF-139

New

Smoke Check

LUCIA LODGE/HWY 1 M

.

PAT17ALPF

.

.

.

36 1.302, -121 33.054

22S R4E Sec 17

I am guessing it is a reignite from the Dolan. There were lots of underground fires still happening.