Light Rain possible today, Thursday, and tomorrow, Friday. From NOAA’s forecast discussion at 8:30 am this morning:

“LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE N BAY. OBSERVATIONS SINCE LAST NIGHT SHOW THAT HAWKEYE RAWS HAD .07 INCHES AND VENADO HAS RECORDED .16 INCHES. EARLY PANELS OF THE 12Z PANELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH PLACEMENT OF LIGHT
PRECIP. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THE LIGHT PRECIP IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE OVER
TERRAIN FAVOR LOCATIONS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT MOST A FEW TENTHS. THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF AS THE WAA AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHIFTS EAST. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION…NEXT
BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR WHEN THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.”

From the monthly NOAA report:

“There continues to be disagreement among the models on the eventual strength of El Niño, but the majority indicate that the three-month average Niño-3.4 SST index value will range between +1.0°C and +1.5°C during the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 5). Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January. At this time, there is a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist. Most of the models suggest that this event will last through March-May 2010, although the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.”