Snow coming?

9:30 pm – serious, but short-lived downpour just a moment ago.

Also, 101 is flooding in Monterey County:
“9:32 PM 2 75B ADV NB AND SB LNS 2-3 FEET DEEP APPROX 300 -400 OF RDWY IS FLOODED
9:31 PM 1 EXTENSIVE FLOODING SB 101 JNO TUSTIN
Unit Information
9:31 PM 1 CHP Unit Assigned”

And this very telling, for me, NOAA forecast discussion just released: “SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 2500 FEET ON SATURDAY AND THEN AS LOW AS 2000 FEET ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT…THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA (ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN DIABLO RANGE) SINCE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS FORECAST. SNOW IS MORE LIKELY SOUTH…IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ABOVE 2000 FEET AND THERE COULD BE UP TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE SANTA LUCIAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

HEY! I’m above 2500 ft! AND I’m in the Santa Lucias. I might have a fun weekend.

5:00 pm – the mud, rock, and dirt slides have started in Santa Cruz County. This first one is on Empire Grade. No reports of problems at this point on Highway One.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY AREA AROUND THE EVENING RUSH AND DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN HELPING TO DROP SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 2000 FEET IN SPOTS (IN FACT IT WOULD NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE IF A RAIN/SNOW MIX GETS DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FEET). WITH THE COLD CORE LOW PROJECTED TO BE OVERHEAD EVEN A FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SMALL HAIL IS A DEFINITELY POSSIBILITY DOWN TO VERY LOW LEVELS.

THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH BAY AND QUICKLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT….HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN ANY ONE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. BUT EVEN A SHORT DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCAL STREET AND HIGHWAY FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ALSO…AREAS IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES THAT HAVE SEEN LOCALLY AS MUCH AS A FOOT OF RAIN SINCE TUESDAY ARE NOW MUCH MORE PRONE TO MINOR MUDSLIDE AND DEBRIS FLOWS…AS WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS…THAN THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER…SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN RATES.

Obviously, if there is any serious snow that is photo worthy, I will post. For now, I need to bring in more wood, finish bringing things in from the Jeep, and otherwise get ready for what is coming.