just a week or so ago, weather forecasters were saying the chances of an El Niño – in fact a strong one – for this winter were increasing substantially. Then today, NOAA, Monterey Bay said no, the models were all over the map.
The most succinct statement was issued today in the last paragraph of Daniel Swain’s blog, Weather West. He says: “And just to reiterate a key point from above: we still don’t know for sure whether strong or very strong El Niño conditions will ultimately develop (nor whether they will persist until winter, when they are most relevant for California). Confidence is starting to increase in current projections, since we’re now emerging from the Spring Predictability Barrier and most dynamical models are still suggesting the potential for a powerful event. But when we concatenate all the various uncertainties discussed above, there’s still something of an open question regarding what happens in California next winter. At this point, it’s fair to state that the likelihood of experiencing a wetter-than-average winter (and, perhaps, flooding) is increasing, but simultaneously that the risk of the California drought continuing into 2016 is nearly 100%. Needless to say: it will probably be a very interesting year to come for weather and climate-watchers in the Golden State. Stay tuned!”
It’s a fascinating read with some interesting animated graphics. I suggest you go take a look, then bookmark this guy, and/or sign up for email notifications. He only blogs about once a month, but that may increase as we approach the end of summer.