Season ending rains later this week?

As Paul H. Commented on yesterday’s post (please read), we have the potential of a storm with significant consequences heading this way. Here is what NOAA and the NWS had to say today:

“A more significant pattern change is expected to begin Thursday as a broad upper level trough approaches the region. This system is progged to tap into a plume of moisture over the Pacific with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches. As this system approaches it will bring precipitation into northern Sonoma county Thursday afternoon and evening. While models have fallen into agreement on this there is still some disagreement with the timing and intensity of the rainfall for Friday. The Euro (ECMWF) is the more aggressive of the two models and brings rain as far south as the Monterey Bay Thursday night while the GFS keep rain changes north of the Golden Gate. The GFS appears to catch up to the Euro Friday night as it pushes the main rain band through the region. The Euro however remains the wetter of the two solutions.

Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain is anticipated Friday across the region. Heaviest precipitation is expected across the North Bay. Models indicate there will likely be a break the rain (GFS) or hit and miss showers (Euro) Saturday on the back side of the main frontal band. However a second round of showers is expected Sunday as the second boundary moves across the region. With a moist atmosphere in place the second boundary will have no trouble spreading widespread precipitation across the region. Rain is expected across the forecast area and will likely bring the season ending rains that the fires burning across the region have been waiting for.”