From Daniel Swain, aka Weather West: “Models still suggesting potential for unusual pattern next week, with cutoff low offshore CA and landfalling hurricane in far north Baja CA. Uncertainty extremely high with this forecast, but things have the potential to get quite interesting next week. Stay tuned!”
Per John Lindsey, SLO Co this am: “ Another low-pressure system will move into the Central Coast on Monday night into Wednesday with early-season rain. Rainfall amounts are forecast to range between 0.10 and 0.25 of an inch. However, this morning’s “European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model run increased the amount of expected rain to range between 1 and 3 inches. Confidence is low and uncertain with this forecast.”
From NOAA today: “Early next week, the forecast gets interesting when the
possibility of moisture from now Tropical Storm Rosa possibly gets infused in an upper trough and upper low along the west coast. Latest models runs bring better rain chances to the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Still a lot of uncertainty in these solutions, but the potential for rain early in October is exciting and bears watching. For now, will keep the low end pops going in
the forecast until some of the model uncertainty gets more clear in the coming days. There are plausible scenarios where much of the district sees little or no rain or decent rains.”