Updated: from NWS- SF Bay, Thursday nite could see upwards of 2” in the mountains of Big Sur, but Friday is the day:
Friday: - North Bay: 1.25"-3" (highest in the coastal mountains) - SF Peninsula: 1.25"-3.25" (highest in the coastal terrain) - East Bay: 0.8"-2.25" (highest in terrain closer to Bay Shoreline) - South Bay: 1"-3.5" (highest in Santa Cruz Mtns) - Santa Cruz: 2"-4.25" (highest in Santa Cruz Mtns) - Monterey & San Benito Counties: 0.50"-6" (highest along Big Sur Mtns, lowest across southeastern portions of each county)
I prepared this post before I got last night’s email from Monterey County warning Big Sur Residents and Businesses to stock up on essential items for at least two weeks. I watched the predictions become more clear and stronger about the atmospheric river that is expected to hit the central coast Thursday night and last thru Friday into Saturday.
John Chesnut sent me this map last night around 10. Today, I am off to stock up on essential items, and some not so essential, but definitely wanted items.
This map is for the 10 days from 3/6 to 3/16. The map is from: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023030612&fh=240&r=us_sw&dpdt=&mc=
From our local NWS yesterday: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ528&warncounty=CAC053&firewxzone=CAZ528&local_place1=Carmel%20Valley%20Village%20CA&product1=Hydrologic+Outlook&lat=36.47&lon=-121.732#.ZAZsOC-IafA
Latest model guidance suggests the coastal slopes of the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Mountains will receive the greatest accumulation of precipitation with particular concern for the Salinas, Pajaro and Carmel rivers. * WHEN...Late Thursday through Saturday. Moderate rainfall expected across the entire Northern and Central California coast. The heaviest rainfall accumulation and periods of potentially intense rain rates are expected late Thursday into Friday over the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia Mountains Showers will linger into Saturday.