On this date in 2013, a Border Collie snuck past the four dogs I had and came into my house, and up to the bed I was lying in. I heard the toenails on the wood floor and thought it was one of the four that had just let outside to pee. “Oh, my,” I said to her. “Who are you, Missy?” Skinny, covered with fleas, I put her in the bathroom away from my other dogs until I could get her to the vet and get her checked out. This was her on that wonderful day that changed my life. The vet thought she was 1 or 2 back then, which puts her at 12 or 13 years old today. He thought she had probably been running around the forest on her own for a couple weeks. Smart as a whip, polite, obedient, a true Border Collie. Happy gotcha day, Missy!
On the precipitation front he wrote this: “Why is this storm going to be so unusual? There are a range of factors that have to line up for rapid cyclogenesis to occur close to the CA coast, and they don’t align often. One is robust “baroclinic instability”–a kind of atmospheric instability that derives from the potential energy contained by the atmospheric flow in an environment of strong horizontal air temperature differentials (this is the kind of potential energy that essentially all winter storms draw upon, but the California coast is not generally a favorable region for this to occur to a substantial degree). Additionally, the region will be in a relatively conductive position relative to a strong Pacific jet streak aligned over Central CA. This configuration, including the presence of upper divergence, allows for “ventilation” at upper levels of the atmosphere right above the low pressure center–which facilitates deepening/evacuation of air from the low itself and enhancing its cyclonic spin. This powerful low is also tapping into some deep subtropical moisture, and the circulation around this system will aim that plume squarely at central and southern California. Due to these additional factors, this event may end up punching well above its weight on the 5-category atmospheric river scaling system.” (https://weatherwest.com/archives/35471)
On the wind front he had this to say: “Again, there is still a substantial range–but since multiple models are now indicating gusts of 70-85 mph out over open water west of Monterey County, it’s highly plausible that gusts at least that strong could mix down to the surface near the coast and over ridgelines, and locally elsewhere in pretty widespread fashion. (A few classically windy places on more remote higher ridgelines that often see high winds could potentially see 90+ mph gusts, though gusts that high are very unlikely where people actually live.) More widespread wind gusts of 55-70 mph are likely across much of the Central Coast, SF & Monterey Bay Areas, and near the I-80 corridor in the Central Valley (including Sacramento).” (https://weatherwest.com/archives/35471)
Will start off with this high wind warning from the NWS and this precipitation prediction made by KION, and add information as it becomes available and the day progresses.
And this came from KION earlier this morning (5:30 am)
ADVISORY: State Officials to Provide Update on February Storm ResponseSACRAMENTO – State officials will provide an update on the state’s response and preparedness efforts as the state endures another round of winter storms. Speakers will be available from the following agencies: National Weather Service (NWS)California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES)California Department of Water Resources (DWR)California Department of Social Services (CDSS)California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE)California Military Department (CMD)California State Transportation Agency (CalSTA) WHEN: Saturday, February 3, 2024, at approximately 12 p.m. WHERE: Cal OES Headquarters, 3650 Schriever Ave. Mather, CA 95655 RSVP to:media@caloes.ca.govMedia can ask questions through Zoom Livestream:FacebookYouTube This press conference is also available to TV stations on the LiveU Matrix under “CalOES LiveU,” TVU Grid under “CAL_OES_PACK.”
Cal OES | State Emergency Operations Ctr, 3650 Schriever Ave., Mather, CA 95655
County of Monterey Storm & Safety Information News Briefing 2-2-24. Worth a watch. Sheriff Nieto is watching the Big Sur Coast for the impacts and tells us the Nation Guard is on drill so their resources (high water vehicles and helicopters) are available and watching whether they need to shift north or south. The closure for Paul’s Slide at Limekiln has been moved 1 mile south due to rockfalls.
National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch in effect Saturday, 2/03, afternoon to late Monday, 2/05, morningfor areas of Monterey County. WHAT: Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible WHERE: Interior Monterey including Pinnacles Ntl Park, Salinas Valley, Carmel Valley, Santa Lucia Mtns, Los Padres Ntl Forest, S. Monterey Bay, Big Sur Coast, Arroyo Seco, & Lake San Antonio WHEN: Saturday, 2/03, evening – Monday, 2/05, morningIMPACTS: Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers/creeks/streams & low-lying/flood-prone locations. Creeks & streams will see rapid rises. Flooding may occur in poor drainage, urban areas, & low-water crossings. Storm drains & ditches may clog with debris PREP. ACTIONS: Monitor the latest forecasts & be alert for possible Flood Warnings. If you live in areas prone to flooding be prepared to take action if flooding occurs. www.weather.gov/safety/flood NWS: alertmry.org/3w3iXL3
UPDATE FROM DANIEL SWAIN’S (WEATHER WEST) OFFICE HOURS: Big Sur is going to get hit and hit hard. He said Big Sur will see 7-10” with this next storm, and the mountains will get 10-15”. Daniel Swain is not an alarmist and is generally conservative in his predictions. Not this time. This next storm starts to hit us Saturday night.
Unlike the previous system, the rainband focuses more along the
Central Coast, meaning Big Sur and the Santa Lucias will see the
highest rainfall amounts. Rain rates reduce into Sunday night but
light showers and slight chances for storms linger into Monday.
Updated rainfall totals for Saturday evening through Monday:
1" to 2": Santa Clara Valley, Interior East Bay
2" to 3": San Francisco, Oakland, East Bay Hills, lower elevations
of San Mateo Co, interior North Bay, interior Monterey Co, San
Benito Co
3 to 5": Santa Cruz Co, higher elevations of the North Bay, San
Mateo, San Benito, and Santa Clara counties.
5" to 7": The highest peaks of the Santa Cruz Mtns and Marin Co. The
Santa Lucias and Big Sur Coast.
Above 7": The highest peaks of the Big Sur Coast.
While scattered showers will persist for the next 3 days, all meteorological eyes are on Sunday to Monday’s storm. For Sunday and Monday from NWS-North Bay: “Impacts from rain and wind appear likely, with a particular focus on the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia ranges. Forecast rain amounts have increased, with most likely totals in the 3-7″ range for the coastal ranges….”
