Before I start the weather reports, for which there is no end in sight, I wanted to start by wishing all of you the happiest and most joyful of Valentine’s Days today. May your day be filled with love!

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STORM WATCH UPDATES: 2/14/09:

Noon: quiet up here this morning, weather-wise. Still have snow, as it is still quite cold, even though the sun keeps peeking through.

Received this Hazardous Weather Outlook from NOAA about 8:30 this am.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
MONTEREY BAY AREA.

.DAY ONE...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT

A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

*  WIND ADVISORY......SEE SFONPWMTR WWUS76 KMTR FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. ESPECIALLY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE BURN SCAR AREAS OF
SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. PEOPLE IN AND NEAR THESE BURN
SCAR AREAS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE
PREPARED TO ACT IF ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

7:00 am – Actual snow depth, 1 inch. Not as much as we had on Monday morning, but still pretty (and cold).

Advisories issued for tonight and Sunday night due to high winds, and potentially high precipitation values. Concern over burn areas, so heads up, everyone!

NOAA forecast:

12Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
 PLUME IS COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIFT AND IS AIMED RIGHT OVER THE
 SAN MATEO TO BIG SUR COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY KIND OF STALLS
 OUT AS FLOW IS ALMOST PARALLEL WITH IT ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE
 STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN. MODEL FORECAST QPF PUTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
 OF PRECIP IN A 12 HR TIME PD AND ALMOST 4.5 INCHES BY MONDAY
 12Z. IF THIS VERIFIES IT COULD DEFINITELY CAUSE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS
 OVER THE BURN AREAS NEAR BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ

2:30 am – several inches of snow on the ground, another winter wonderland!

5:00 pm – Clearly, the major snow accumulations did not materialize, unless they will do so tonight, but they are not expected to. It was an odd bag all afternoon, with periods of snow, hail, and rain – even an attempt at sunshine. Small amounts of snow, but nothing worth photographing. The latest forecast discussion warn of high winds and significant rain Saturday night into Sunday

1:45 pm – currently snowing. Whew, quite the snow storm. And not an hour ago, I caught a glimpse of blue sky. 

Noon – forgot rain totals. 1.25 overnight; 19.75 for the season. Snow still on the ground, when clouds clear, looks like Cone Peak has a good dusting. Some blue sky through the clouds. Systems up for the rest of the day, so will report when there IS anything to report. Stay warm, all

10:45 am – SIGNIFICANT hail, but short-lived. It is now snowing again.

10:00 am – snow has not continued, and is now melting. We will see what the rest of the day brings.

7:00 am – snow is really blowing in. Will continue with updates throughout the day.

6:00 am – Snow. It isn’t particularly thick, yet, but it is definitely covering everything. I will try to get photos at some point today and upload them. We are also having some good winds.

The forecast discussion moderates snow totals this am, and was not released until 5:30 am. It is lengthy, but produced below.

BOTH MT VACA AND KMUX RADARS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
 ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE BAY AREA AS OF
 4:30 AM. AREA GAUGES HAVE ALREADY RECORDED A FEW TENTHS AND UP TO ONE
 HALF INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
 HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROFILER DATA INDICATED SNOW LEVELS ARE DROPPING
 TO 2500-3000 FEET. THAT BEING SAID...PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY SNOW
 OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. THIS FITS WELL WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
 ADVISORY(SEE SFOWSWMTR). THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
 TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LOW
 REMAINS OFF THE NORCAL COAST MOVING EASTWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE
 THE SHOW LATER TODAY.

 SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
 AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
 REMAINDER OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...PERIODS OF
 MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
 HIGHER TERRAIN. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH THE STRONGER
 CELLS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AND POSSIBLY
 A PEAK OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
 UPPER LOW WILL CONT TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING MORE COLD AIR TO
 OVERSPREAD THE BAY AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL
 DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
 DROP CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
 POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH AS
 THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD.  ONE FLY IN THE
 OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK...WILL BE THE POSSIBLE BREAK WITH PRECIP AND
 EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IMPACTING SNOW
 TOTALS. THE BREAK IN THE ACTION CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
 IMAGERY AND A DISTINCT WESTERN EDGE ON AREA RADARS. THE WINTER
 WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED DEPENDING UPON THE BREAK.

 ONE CHANGE WITH THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TO DRASTICALLY SLOW DOWN
 THE NEXT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
 CWA BY LATE SATURDAY AND NOW THE LATEST RUNS DELAYS IT UNTIL ALMOST
 SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT...A DEEPER SYSTEM APPEARS
 TO BE DIGGING MORE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SLOWING DOWN. ONE
 THING IS FOR SURE...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE LATE SATURDAY AS SW FLOW
 DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC
 LIFT AT 295K BEGINS AND REALLY GETS CRANKING BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT
 PRECIP TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.  SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
 HIGH ENOUGH THAT WINTER WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN EXCEPT OVER
 THE HIGHEST PEAKS. IF MODEL QPF IS CORRECT...MUCH OF THE REGION
 COULD SEE 0.5 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY
 HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TERRAIN FAVORED
 LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL...WINDS INCREASE
 DRAMATICALLY.

4:00 am – rain began an hour ago, no snow, as of yet. The usual 4 am forecast discussion has not been posted. Will check later. As of the present time, CHP is reporting no road problems in Big Sur. Will update with rain and season totals later this morning.

3:30 pm, my systems are about to be tested. I have plenty of propane, gasoline, and other necessities. Predictions are for an accumulation up to 10 inches by Saturday. I think I will be able to maintain internet communications, and definitely cell phone. So,  from NOAA, once again, snow predictions have been increasing steadily as this storm gets closer. This is this afternoon’s report:

SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHBAY AND EAST-BAY HILLS TONIGHT
 PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY 
INTO THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS BY EARLY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS 
WILL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE 
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TOTAL SNOW 
ACCUMULATION TO REACH NEARLY 10 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING. 
WITH SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT...100 TO 200 J/KG 
CAPE...PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1000 PM PST TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

7:30 am – rain total, .4 inches; season total, 18.5 inches. CHP reports no highway problems in Big Sur. And following is a hazardous weather conditions report. LOOK at the projected snow totals!!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM
FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY.

A COLD STORM SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE
AND THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 2000 BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET...WITH 6 TO 8
INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 3000 FEET.

NOAA forecast discussion continues to predict snow down to 2000 ft. in the Santa Lucia Mtns. by tomorrow morning.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY AND WILL SWING A
 COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE A BIT
 COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...AND UNLIKE THE PAST SYSTEMS THE
 PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIRMASS.
 SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 2000 TONIGHT IN THE SF BAY AREA...AND WILL
 DROP TO 2000 FEET BY FRI MRNG IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
 BENITO COUNTIES.

10:00 pm – rain has continued on and off for the past 3 hours, heavy at times. Also, I have had email “issues” all afternoon and evening. Hopefully, it will clear up in the am. I will post rain totals and season totals at my usual time.

7:00 pm – rain began, also windy, as well as what MAY be distant thunder. Unsure of latter at this point.

This afternoon’s forecast discussion just released, and it looks to be a doozy. Boy, are we in for it.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH 
AMPLE MOISTURE TO USE AND SNOW LEVELS CRASHING DOWN TO 2000 FEET 
A SNOW ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH BAY... EAST BAY... 
AND SANTA CRUZ AREAS OVER 2000 FEET. 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED 
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET WITH UP TO 6 INCHES OVER 3000 FEET.

MORE INTERESTING IS WHAT IS SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND AS 
ANOTHER LOW TAKES AIM ON OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW 
AND SHOW MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH PW 
VALUES FORECAST TO BE UP TO AN INCH AND DYNAMICS LOOKING 
VERY FAVORABLE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE QUITE A WET SYSTEM. 
AFTER A CALL WITH RFC...WENT WITH QPF VALUES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES 
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH UP 
TO 4 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE 
CWA. SINCE THIS WILL BE HITTING JUST AFTER SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS 
THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. 
PERSONS AROUND THE BURN AREAS SHOULD DEFINITELY FOLLOW THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PACKAGES.

8 am – Oops, slept in. Heavy rain between 3 am and 4 am, but that is all I heard. Woke me up, and that’s why I overslept. Rain gauge indicates 1/2 inch of rain received from this early morning storm.

NOAA forecast discussion is warning of a rather large system, bringing considerable snow Thursday night or Friday morning. Here is what they have to say:

NEXT COLD FRONT TO REACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
 FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS POTENT WITH STRONG COLD
 ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. 700 MB TEMPS STILL AROUND -14 WITH SNOW
 LEVELS DOWN TO AT LEAST 2000 FEET ON FRIDAY. AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET
 COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OUT OF THIS EVENT.

Also, this hazardous watch. I don't know about you guys, but I am
hunkered down until next Tuesday.

MUTIPLE STORM SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT SIGNIFIGANT
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN AT LEAST ONE OF THE STORMS WHICH COULD CAUSE
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS. ANYONE NEAR BURN AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...OR RIVERS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the State Park may be closed not just through Memorial Day, as we have been told, but may not reopen, due to lack of money to complete the rebuilding of one of the bridges. I have heard NOTHING to support this, other than the budget problems in general, which is really what this article is about. It appears to be using the state park as a way to generate hysteria over the budget problems. The article is here:

 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123431135774170619.html 

but just in case it “disappears” or goes into archive, requiring subscription or other, here is the relevant text of the article (it deals with the state budget crisis in general, so I don’t reproduce the entire article):

Snow still evident out my bedroom window, but appears limited to shady and north-facing areas. Sun is bright, but it is very cold. NOAA’s forecast discussion for the next 7 days very interesting, with a number of storms lined up, and snow levels on some dropping in elevation. Looks like I’ll be snowed in at least once or twice again. I KNEW I should have bought those snow chains!!

Today’s a day when I run to Cambria to stock up on gas for the generator, dog food, and general supplies for myself. Maybe pick up some new reading material while I’m at it. 

Tonight’s storm is predicted to be much like Sunday night’s, which means more snow up here in the higher elevations. Thursday night’s storm is predicted to drop snow levels to 2500 ft. Friday through Sunday is very unsettled, and then Monday night, increasing chance of lowering snow levels. Will definitely be an interesting period. 

Chew’s Ridge is reporting 22 degrees right now. I can’t be much warmer. Brrr…

From NOAA’s hazardous weather outlook:

THE STORM ON FRIDAY WILL BRING RAIN...LOW SNOW LEVELS AND LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO
SATURDAY.

PERSONS THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR INCLEMENT
WEATHER INCLUDING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS. IN
ADDITION PEOPLE HEADING TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD EXPECT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PEOPLE LIVING IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECASTS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Cone Peak is barely visible behind Pine branch. That is Prewitt Ridge in the foreground, all covered with snow.

Scroll down to Storm Watch 2/9 for rain and snow totals and continuing weather coverage throughout the day.

See dog foot prints. Dogs love snow.