5:00 pm – Clearly, the major snow accumulations did not materialize, unless they will do so tonight, but they are not expected to. It was an odd bag all afternoon, with periods of snow, hail, and rain – even an attempt at sunshine. Small amounts of snow, but nothing worth photographing. The latest forecast discussion warn of high winds and significant rain Saturday night into Sunday
1:45 pm – currently snowing. Whew, quite the snow storm. And not an hour ago, I caught a glimpse of blue sky.
Noon – forgot rain totals. 1.25 overnight; 19.75 for the season. Snow still on the ground, when clouds clear, looks like Cone Peak has a good dusting. Some blue sky through the clouds. Systems up for the rest of the day, so will report when there IS anything to report. Stay warm, all
10:45 am – SIGNIFICANT hail, but short-lived. It is now snowing again.
10:00 am – snow has not continued, and is now melting. We will see what the rest of the day brings.
7:00 am – snow is really blowing in. Will continue with updates throughout the day.
6:00 am – Snow. It isn’t particularly thick, yet, but it is definitely covering everything. I will try to get photos at some point today and upload them. We are also having some good winds.
The forecast discussion moderates snow totals this am, and was not released until 5:30 am. It is lengthy, but produced below.
BOTH MT VACA AND KMUX RADARS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE BAY AREA AS OF 4:30 AM. AREA GAUGES HAVE ALREADY RECORDED A FEW TENTHS AND UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROFILER DATA INDICATED SNOW LEVELS ARE DROPPING TO 2500-3000 FEET. THAT BEING SAID...PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. THIS FITS WELL WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY(SEE SFOWSWMTR). THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE NORCAL COAST MOVING EASTWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE THE SHOW LATER TODAY. SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AND POSSIBLY A PEAK OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONT TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING MORE COLD AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE BAY AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK...WILL BE THE POSSIBLE BREAK WITH PRECIP AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IMPACTING SNOW TOTALS. THE BREAK IN THE ACTION CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A DISTINCT WESTERN EDGE ON AREA RADARS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED DEPENDING UPON THE BREAK. ONE CHANGE WITH THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TO DRASTICALLY SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CWA BY LATE SATURDAY AND NOW THE LATEST RUNS DELAYS IT UNTIL ALMOST SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT...A DEEPER SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DIGGING MORE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SLOWING DOWN. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE LATE SATURDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 295K BEGINS AND REALLY GETS CRANKING BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT PRECIP TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WINTER WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. IF MODEL QPF IS CORRECT...MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE 0.5 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL...WINDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
4:00 am – rain began an hour ago, no snow, as of yet. The usual 4 am forecast discussion has not been posted. Will check later. As of the present time, CHP is reporting no road problems in Big Sur. Will update with rain and season totals later this morning.
One thought on “Storm Watch, Friday the 13th”
Sure hope you’re doing ok with the snow and stuff. And that your systems keep you cozy, warm, and online ’cause your reports are absolutely invaluable so keep ’em up as you can.
Related, went back to your earlier posts where you discussed your elevation and wonder if you’ve tried pinning down your exact elevation on Google Earth (not that you need to get more accurate than the estimate you gave earlier). Just a thought.