Storm Watch, Friday the 13th

5:00 pm – Clearly, the major snow accumulations did not materialize, unless they will do so tonight, but they are not expected to. It was an odd bag all afternoon, with periods of snow, hail, and rain – even an attempt at sunshine. Small amounts of snow, but nothing worth photographing. The latest forecast discussion warn of high winds and significant rain Saturday night into Sunday

1:45 pm – currently snowing. Whew, quite the snow storm. And not an hour ago, I caught a glimpse of blue sky. 

Noon – forgot rain totals. 1.25 overnight; 19.75 for the season. Snow still on the ground, when clouds clear, looks like Cone Peak has a good dusting. Some blue sky through the clouds. Systems up for the rest of the day, so will report when there IS anything to report. Stay warm, all

10:45 am – SIGNIFICANT hail, but short-lived. It is now snowing again.

10:00 am – snow has not continued, and is now melting. We will see what the rest of the day brings.

7:00 am – snow is really blowing in. Will continue with updates throughout the day.

6:00 am – Snow. It isn’t particularly thick, yet, but it is definitely covering everything. I will try to get photos at some point today and upload them. We are also having some good winds.

The forecast discussion moderates snow totals this am, and was not released until 5:30 am. It is lengthy, but produced below.

BOTH MT VACA AND KMUX RADARS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
 ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE BAY AREA AS OF
 4:30 AM. AREA GAUGES HAVE ALREADY RECORDED A FEW TENTHS AND UP TO ONE
 HALF INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
 HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROFILER DATA INDICATED SNOW LEVELS ARE DROPPING
 TO 2500-3000 FEET. THAT BEING SAID...PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY SNOW
 OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. THIS FITS WELL WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
 ADVISORY(SEE SFOWSWMTR). THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
 TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LOW
 REMAINS OFF THE NORCAL COAST MOVING EASTWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE
 THE SHOW LATER TODAY.

 SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
 AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
 REMAINDER OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...PERIODS OF
 MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
 HIGHER TERRAIN. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH THE STRONGER
 CELLS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AND POSSIBLY
 A PEAK OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
 UPPER LOW WILL CONT TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING MORE COLD AIR TO
 OVERSPREAD THE BAY AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL
 DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
 DROP CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
 POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH AS
 THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD.  ONE FLY IN THE
 OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK...WILL BE THE POSSIBLE BREAK WITH PRECIP AND
 EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IMPACTING SNOW
 TOTALS. THE BREAK IN THE ACTION CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
 IMAGERY AND A DISTINCT WESTERN EDGE ON AREA RADARS. THE WINTER
 WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED DEPENDING UPON THE BREAK.

 ONE CHANGE WITH THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TO DRASTICALLY SLOW DOWN
 THE NEXT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
 CWA BY LATE SATURDAY AND NOW THE LATEST RUNS DELAYS IT UNTIL ALMOST
 SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT...A DEEPER SYSTEM APPEARS
 TO BE DIGGING MORE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SLOWING DOWN. ONE
 THING IS FOR SURE...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE LATE SATURDAY AS SW FLOW
 DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC
 LIFT AT 295K BEGINS AND REALLY GETS CRANKING BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT
 PRECIP TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.  SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
 HIGH ENOUGH THAT WINTER WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN EXCEPT OVER
 THE HIGHEST PEAKS. IF MODEL QPF IS CORRECT...MUCH OF THE REGION
 COULD SEE 0.5 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY
 HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TERRAIN FAVORED
 LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL...WINDS INCREASE
 DRAMATICALLY.

4:00 am – rain began an hour ago, no snow, as of yet. The usual 4 am forecast discussion has not been posted. Will check later. As of the present time, CHP is reporting no road problems in Big Sur. Will update with rain and season totals later this morning.