Around midnight, two fires ignited by downed power lines, due to high winds – one on El Sur Ranch and one near Pfeiffer State Park. Today, another one, near Captain Cooper School, also from power line. All three out due to rapid response from our Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade! Way to go, firefighters!!
Category: 2009-2010 El Niño
Giving Thanks
Shot by my son, Brendon Shave, using my Nikon D90. I did minor editing (only straightening and cropping) but he did the rest in camera. A beautiful shot! Thanks, kiddo.
I have been without a computer for 3 days (withdrawals) but have today rectified the differing problems with both laptops, and purchased a 1 TB external hard drive, a necessary chore I have postponed for years.
The weather here yesterday was picture perfect. Today, the opposite. Very chilly, strong gusty winds, and light rain this afternoon. I haven’t checked the weather reports (no computer, remember?) but will do so and post if anything of interest. If this is primarily isolated, or mild, I will leave you with this gorgeous image and post more photographs tomorrow.
NOAA Discussion Friday afternoon:
SO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDER AT LEAST TO EAST OF OUR AREA.
Today’s Storm
While it looks significant for SF and northward (up to .3/hour), south of SF, while it will bring some rain, and scattered showers through tomorrow morning, doesn’t look like much of concern, per this morning’s NOAA discussion. Of course, Mother Nature has her ways. More photos this weekend.
10 am – clouds in and out, sunshine and blue skies, intermittently. I don’t see any rain until maybe later. No winds to speak of yet, so the front has not yet arrived.
3:30 pm – finally the rain has arrived, although it is quite light at this point.
7:30 pm – well that “storm” was a dud, at least down here!
Crow in B&W
Tonight, I will start tracking the storm for Friday, but I don’t think much is expected, in terms of strength or length of storm. Quick in and out is what it sounds like.
Friday’s Weather & Last Friday’s Notes
First, the weather report for this coming Friday has eased up a bit for our area. The current NOAA discussion states:
“IMAGERY IS NOT INDC THAT MUCH MOISTURE WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO THE COAST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE DISTRICT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE WA COAST. HOWEVER…SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE QUICK MOVING THE AREAL EXTENT AS WELL AS THE DURATION OF THE WINDS SEEM TOO SMALL TO WARRANT ANY WIND PRODUCTS. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
THERE WILL BE MUCH WAA…SO THE MAIN RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE DISTRICT FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT… WITH A SLIGHT CHC MAINLY FOR THE MONTEREY BAY AREA ON SAT IN THE MOIST NW FLOW (A FAVORED LOCATION IN THE MOIST NW FLOW ALOFT).”
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BSMAAC Meeting Notes:
Public Comment Section:
1. Bill Nye reported on the Ft. Ord Veteran’s Cemetery.
2. Lorri Lockwood reported on the draft EIR from the State Water Resources Control Board and the El Sur Ranch’s Water Right Application (No. 30166.) The draft can be read at:
El Sur Draft EIR
comments accepted until December 14, 2009. For questions, contact Paul Murphey at pmurphey@waterboards.ca.gov or (916)341-5435.
3. Linda Sayre reported on the Highway One meeting. The two main subjects are trash and bicycles. Suggestions re: both were discussed. (Ed. note: See Highway Management Plan and Byways Organization for additional)
OLD BUSINESS:
1. Big Sur USFS Management Unit: This topic took the most time. Sam Farr provided copies of the text of HR 4040, as well as summaries and maps. Mike Caplin questioned some of the language of the proposed act, Butch Kronlund questioned putting the Act through without prior public input. Sam Farr agreed to a special meeting to consider amendments to the Act before it is presented for a vote. Will keep everyone posted about this.
2. Coast Highway Management Plan and Byway Oraganization Update Dave Potter stressed the need for a working group with representatives from the South Coast, Big Sur Valley, Carmel Highlands, Chamber of Commerce, and other affected areas. This working group would be the place to consider the trash and bicycle problems previously discussed (Ed. note: I attended the original meeting for this group several years ago at the FireHouse in Carmel Highlands. It seems to have “stalled” since then. Anyone from the south coast interested in this working group, please contact me.)
3. Update on Big Sur Fire Safe Grant and CWPP Frank Pinney brought us up-to-date. The MoCo CWPP is in the final draft stages. Suggestions for Big Sur CWPP and South Coast CWPPs which will feed into the MoCo draft.
REPORTS FROM MEMBER AGENCIES
1. Chamber of Commerce – Kirk Gafill reported on the Ambulance Service, which looks to be able to continue. He also reported business is up and has been good.
2 CPOA – Butch Kronlund reported on upcoming Annual Meeting this past Monday
3. State Parks – Mat Fuzie reported that Limekiln has been given back to the Monterey District (from the SLO District) and they are evaluating the repairs necessary to re-open the Campground, are setting up a timeline to accomplish necessary repairs, and an appropriate ranger found to manage it.
4. USFS – Sherry Tune reported that her district received $600K to repair trails w/i the district, and $ for road work within the forest is also available. She also reported Pine Ridge is now open.
Meeting adjourned at just before 1 pm, a record.
2010 Meeting dates:
February 26th; April 30; July 30th; October 29th.
Friday’s Storm
This is what the NOAA discussion posted (in part) this morning, so heads up, everyone!
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SOAKING RAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
Also I have a delightful butterfly photo shared with me by Tziala Z Duenzl that I will post this evening. I will also get the notes from the Big Sur Multi-Agency Meeting up on the Friday Meeting Notes post at some point today, and don’t forget the wonderful photos and history of November’s Monthly Spotlight – the Big Sur River Inn, directly below.
Enjoy this lovely Indian Summer day today. It is in the 70’s up here, and just gorgeous!
My Mentor
Mother Nature
Tomorrow’s Meetings
Don’t forget the Big Sur Multi-Agency Advisory Meeting tomorrow at the Big Sur Lodge Conference Room from 10 am until 2 pm. I will report on the meeting this weekend. Almost immediately following will be the Coast Trail meeting with Bill Monning at the Grange at 2:30 pm. I have a prior engagement, so will not be able to attend this one, but Betty has promised me a report, which I will post upon receiving.
This morning’s sunrise was so beautiful and photogenic. Unfortunately, my camera was in the car, and things were changing too fast for me to capture it. So, just imagine the fluffy clouds over the ocean, tinted a slight shade of pink, against the brilliant blue of the sky and ocean — and there you have it!
Light Rain
Light Rain possible today, Thursday, and tomorrow, Friday. From NOAA’s forecast discussion at 8:30 am this morning:
“LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE N BAY. OBSERVATIONS SINCE LAST NIGHT SHOW THAT HAWKEYE RAWS HAD .07 INCHES AND VENADO HAS RECORDED .16 INCHES. EARLY PANELS OF THE 12Z PANELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH PLACEMENT OF LIGHT
PRECIP. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THE LIGHT PRECIP IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE OVER
TERRAIN FAVOR LOCATIONS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT MOST A FEW TENTHS. THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF AS THE WAA AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHIFTS EAST. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION…NEXT
BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR WHEN THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.”
El Niño Update
From the monthly NOAA report:
“There continues to be disagreement among the models on the eventual strength of El Niño, but the majority indicate that the three-month average Niño-3.4 SST index value will range between +1.0°C and +1.5°C during the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 5). Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January. At this time, there is a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist. Most of the models suggest that this event will last through March-May 2010, although the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.”