El Niño 2015-2016

imageFrom Daniel Swain, of Weather West. For niffty charts and graphs and all manner of things, see his blog “Weather West” – link in the right column.

“Early 2015 brought similar news, with several new bursts of westerly winds and corresponding model forecasts of a building El Niño. This time, however, the anomalous westerly winds did not abate. The East Pacific had already built up considerable tropical and extratropical warmth during the “non-El Niño” of 2014, and additional heat quickly accumulated through the spring and early summer months of 2015. Much unlike 2014, ocean-atmosphere model forecasts continued to grow more emphatic regarding the potential for a very significant El Niño event by late summer. And this time, they were right: warmth the eastern tropical Pacific has recently reached values only seen previously during the strongest El Niño on record in 1997-1998. The atmosphere, too, has gotten its act together this time around—and is exhibiting a more strongly El Niño-like circulation pattern than has ever been observed previously during the summer months. Nearly every record that exists regarding tropical cyclones in the tropical Pacific has been broken over the past six months—and as of this writing, 3 major hurricanes were churning simultaneously over the central and eastern Pacific for the first time in recorded history. In fact, the combination of a powerful El Niño event and the sudden re-emergence of accumulated heat from the tropical West Pacific has created unprecedented warmth over a vast expanse of ocean, stretching thousands of miles from coastal Peru to the Gulf of Alaska.”

“It’s hard to imagine a more powerful predictive signal for California winter precipitation than the occurrence of a very strong El Niño event. Weak to moderate El Niño events can have highly variable effects in California, and are in most cases poor predictors of how much precipitation might fall in the Golden State. But the big events are a whole different ballgame—and the presence of a powerful El Niño in the tropical Pacific is the single most useful piece of information we have regarding what might take place in the months to come.

While even a record-strength El Niño in the tropical Pacific does not mean that California will experience record rains this winter—since there are always other factors at play—it does strongly shift the odds in favor of a wet winter. This not only fits with conceptual models regarding the atmospheric effects of El Niño, but is also strongly supported by model predictions. While the models do disagree upon the details, there is a very clear signal toward a classic “El Niño” winter dipole along the West Coast of North America, with much below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia and much above-average precipitation over essentially all of California from the Oregon border to Baja California.”

There you have it. Stocking up on extra food, dog food, wine, propane, and gas. Am I forgetting anything?

Illegal campfires, again, still … Let’s turn it into income?

if the BSVFB charges each and every idiot that starts a fire for the costs of fighting said fire, and the USFS issues tickets with hefty fines for each and every illegal campfire, and warnings re same, and publicizes all, including names of those cited and fined … Then, and only then … Will we see a change in the behavior of our visitors. I urge each and every one of my readers to write to our representatives – federal, state, and county (listed in the column to the right with links). You don’t need to be a resident, just a lover of Big Sur, and who isn’t?
09/03/2015 16:36 LPF-2753
abandon camp fire Miscellaneous plaskett ridge road . . . . . 35.904 x 121.414
09/03/2015 16:36 LPF-2752
abandon camp fire Miscellaneous plaskett ridge road . . . . . 35.904 x 121.414
09/03/2015 16:36 LPF-2751
Illegal camp fire Miscellaneous Plaskett ridge rd . . . . . 35.904 x 121.414
09/03/2015 16:35 LPF-2750
Illegal Camp fire Miscellaneous Los Berros road . . . . . 35.917 x 121.214

i think the latter is Los Burros, based on lat/long aka WIllow Creek Rd.

Vista Point Improvements

Today’s Date: Thursday, September 3, 2015
District: 05 – Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, San Benito and Santa
Cruz Counties
Contact: Jim Shivers or Colin Jones
Phone: (805) 549-3237 or (805) 549-3189
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

VISTA POINT IMPROVEMENT PROJECT BEGINS NEXT WEEK ON THE CENTRAL COAST

CENTRAL COAST – A project to enhance vista points and install interpretive displays along the central coast will begin Tuesday, Sept. 8. The following vista points will be closed intermittently during construction:

· The Rancho Cielo Vista Point on State Route 154 and the Arroyo Hondo Vista Point on US Highway 101 in Santa Barbara County.
· The San Simeon Bay Vista Point and the Piedras Blancas Vista Point on State Route 1 in San Luis Obispo County.
· The Big Creek Vista Point and the Julia Pfeiffer Burns Vista Point in on State Route 1 in Monterey County.
· The La Selva Vista Point on State Route 1 in Santa Cruz County. This location will remain closed 24/7 beginning Tuesday, Sept. 8 until all construction has been completed this fall.

“These vista point improvements and interpretive displays will enhance the visitor experience as they travel along the state highway system and enjoy the very best of what the central coast has to offer,” said Caltrans District 5 Director Tim Gubbins.

The contractor for this $699.000 Transportation Enhancement Project is RSB Group of Lake Forest, CA. This project is expected to be completed by late November.

Caltrans reminds motorists to move over and slow down when driving through
highway construction zones.

For traffic updates on other state highways in San Luis Obispo County, motorists may call Caltrans
District 5 Public Affairs at 805-549-3318 or can visit our website at: http://www.dot.ca.gov/dist05/road_information.htm.

Susana Z. Cruz
Caltrans District 5
Public Information Officer/
Portavoz de Relaciones Públicas
para Caltrans en el Distrito 5
805. 549.3138
805.549.3326–fax
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Pot Bust on the South Coast

when we drove by PV Station at 9:30 am there were a sh**load of La Enforcement types from all sorts of agencies staging, along with a helicopter. There were even more F&G along the road at Mill Creek. Then tonight, on the way home, we saw a LE truck with a trailer loaded full of stuff covers with tarps heading north. Don’t know the details of the bust, but you can rest assured law enforcement will be touting their horns about how big it was, how much it weighed, how much it was worth. Look to local news sources tonight or tomorrow. If I hear. I will post an update.

Big Sur River Run

Registration Open! Close to One Million Dollars Donated

Big Sur River Run XXXV

Saturday, October 24th , 2015
Race begins at 10am sharp

Starting line: Pfeiffer Big Sur State Park
Big Sur, CA 93940
831-238-0214
Over the last 34 years the Big Sur River Run has raised $915,000 for the Big Sur Health Center and Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade. This year the race committee has set a goal of reaching the $1,000,000 mark! Nepenthe, the event’s main sponsor for the past 25 years, has organized a challenge grant of $25,000 in hopes to rally the local community, businesses and participants to support the event and reach the one million dollar goal.

The number of visitor’s to Big Sur has been increasing exponentially and has reached near critical mass. Both of the beneficiaries are working overtime to keep the community members and visitors healthy and safe. The drought stricken coastline is susceptible to forest fires and both the BSVFB and BSHC are critical during times of natural disaster. Overall, the Big Sur River Run is a fun way to experience and support the Big Sur community in times of need while enjoying the surrounding beauty.

The Big Sur River Run’s 5k walk and certified 10k courses are flat, black-top loops that follow the Big Sur River through towering redwoods. Founded in 1980 the Big Sur River Run (501c3) is a fun community oriented fund raiser for the Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade and Big Sur Health Center. Nearly two years after the destruction of the Pfeiffer Fires that claimed 32 homes, the BSVFB and the Big Sur Health Center are more in need of support than ever. Both organizations rely on the community to help raise funds to continue maintaining the health and safety of Big Sur residents and visitors.

Registration is available online at: http://www.bigsurriverrun.org or in person on the day of the event. We ask that runners requiring day-of registration to please arrive early to register. Limited to 1,000 participants. Registration fee includes long sleeve t-shirt with an annual design.

Prizes will be awarded to the first overall male and female finishers, as well as first, second, and third place male and female finishers for each age division.

Interested volunteers are welcome to contact us to learn how to get involved: volunteer@bigsurriverrun.org
To help sponsor the event, contact Meredith Gafill at sponsorships@bigsurriverrun.org

Visit http://www.bigsurriverrun.org or http://www.bigsurcalifornia.org for more information about lodging, restaurants and shopping while visiting Big Sur.

The BSRR is an all-volunteer operation that has raised $915,000 for the two beneficiaries thanks to the generosity of our sponsors, race participants and volunteers. This year is no exception.. thank you to our sponsors.

Sincerely,

Chelsea Belle Davey

831-238-0214
http://www.chelseabelledavey.com
http://www.facebook.com/chelseabelledavey

Fire in Big Basin State Park

Incident: 00558 Type: Report of Fire Location: 0 Lodge Rd Loc Desc: BIG BASIN STATE PARK 37�07’18.27N / 122�09’22.74W Lat/Lon: 37.178621 -122.189388
Detail Information
8:05 PM 3 [8] 1039 STATE PARKS, PARKS ENRT, CALFIRE ENRT
7:56 PM 2 [2] RP SEES DARK SMOKE, LRG AMT OF SMOKE GOING OVER EAGLE ROCK
7:55 PM 1 [1] RP SEES PLUME OF SMOKE NEAR IN BIG BASIN REDWOOD STATE PARK – ON EASTERN BOUNDARY NEAR LODGE RD

New Highway One Roadwork this week

Highway 1 – Bridge Repair Work: August 31 – September 3
Bridge repair work will be done on the northbound and southbound lanes on Highway 1 between Willow Creek Bridge and Castro Canyon Bridge from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. One lane will subject to closure for the repair.
Motorists should expect daytime delays of approximately 5 -15 minutes.