Sunday, 12/14 – NOTE: as per my usual, the most recent entries are here at the top, morning entries start at the bottom, if interested.

11 pm – Total rain today thus far, is 1 and 1/2 inches, bringing the season total to 5.5 inches. No snow, but steady heavy rain all night. I’ll check in in the morning.

7:30 pm. Dave Allen from Carmel is reporting that all hell is breaking loose. Rain, hail, thunder, lightning. I’m often up to an hour behind town reports, but I’ll let you know if “hell” comes to my mountain side! I just went out and checked my gauge, and I have received another 1/2 inch since it got dark. That brings the year’s total to 4.75 inches.

Dark, thirty. By dark, I received 1/4 inch of precipitation for the day, which was snowing, on and off. dark, it turned to rain and slush, which seems to have continued for the last hour. I will report again as necessary.

WOW!! 9:35 am BIG snowflakes!! WOW BIG snowflakes!! It rarely sticks during the day up here, unless there is a “base” from the night before, but we’ll see. 

The precipitation forecast map predicts we will get 3/4 of an inch in the next 24 hours. Temps at 9:30 am are: Chew’s Ridge, 29; Highland’s Peak, 38; Nepenthe, 46. Nepenthe is clearly the place to be this morning! And here is a portion of today’s  (12/14) forecast discussion:

INDICATIONS ARE
 THAT THE INCOMING MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE STEERED MAINLY 
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOWER 
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE MOST 
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD. PRIMARY 
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SNOW LEVELS AND QPF. 
MODEL FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE SNOW LEVELS OF BETWEEN 
2500 AND 3500 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF COOLING THAT 
HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND THE DRY AIR
STILL IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD RESULT
IN SNOW LEVELS BEING MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED...PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET TODAY IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO 
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TODAY BELOW 2000 FEET. IF SO...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEEDED. CURRENT 
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR 
SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WOULD IMPACT HIGHER ELEVATION ROADWAYS 
IN THE SF BAY AREA...EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. 
LATEST GFS...AND ESPECIALLY NAM...DIRECT MOST MOISTURE 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY
(Ed. note: That's us, boys and girls!)

I will be adding and updating this post throughout the day as I track the weather and gather my notes from the car below in two separate sections.

8 pm – nothing here but severe cold. If you go to the Chew’s Ridge weather station, at 5K ft. you will see that it is 25 degrees right now!! Brrr. bundle up, everyone! The weather station at Highland Peak (Big Creek), at 1900 ft., I believe, is showing 34 degrees and Nepenthe is recording 44 degrees.

4 pm – No snow or precipitation here, but I have a complete calm, falling temperatures, and increasing clouds with the approaching darkness. Here’s part of the latest forecast discussion. Scroll down for the earlier discussion from this morning. (I admit I had to look graupel up. From wikpedia: Graupel (also called snow pellets) refers to precipitation that forms when supercooled droplets of water condense on a snowflake, forming a 2–5 mm ball of rime; the snowflake acts as a nucleus of condensation in this process.  Graupel does not include other frozen precipitation such as snow, hail, ice pellets or diamond dust. See what an educational site this is? LOL

DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
 COLD AIR CUMULUS FILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST CONTINUE TO MOVE
 ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING HAS INCREASED ACTIVITY OF THESE
 CELLS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE SPOTTERS REPORTED GRAUPEL IN
 CORTE MADERA ASSOCIATED WITH A ISOLATED CELL THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
 EASTERN PORTION OF MARIN COUNTY. A SHORT TIME LATER LIGHT SNOW WAS
 REPORTED OVER MOUNT HAMILTON. SINCE THEN A FEW CALLS HAVE COME IN
 WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 3000 FEET. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
 THROUGH TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE
 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP.

BSMAAC Notes:

Yesterday’s meeting was interesting because much of the discussed information came up during the “non-agenda” portion of the meeting. For example, the new Monterey County Building Code Enforcement Ordinance will be coming up for a vote either Tuesday or next month. I have gone through a draft of that ordinance, and it has some serious legal flaws, which I have pointed out to a few parties to the drafting process. Second, Sam Farr is pushing for the “mapping” of all properties on the coast from just south of the Carmel Highlands to the SLO/MoCo line. The purpose of this is for firefighting protection. I expressed concern over proposed “mapping” and the code enforcement ramifications, although Kathleen Lee assured me that that was not the intent of the mapping. Intent or not, it could be an unintended consequence. I suggested “use immunity” but I’m relatively certain no one understood my point.

There will be some reports on Cal-Trans projects that I will post to that page as an update, particularly those that affect the South Coast.

WEATHER:

I have added a new link in the 2008-2008 Weather Conditions websites. Nepenthe now has an automated weather station installed as of yesterday. With the one at Chew’s Ridge and at Big Creek, both also linked to the right, we have most of the coast covered, now.

NOAA is predicting 50% rain possibilities for today and tomorrow, and rain likely for Monday and Tuesday. I will post when rains and/or snows start up here. Here is part of this morning’s forecast from 9:53 AM:

 

MODELS FORECAST COLD AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PARKS 
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST CUTTING OFF AND DROPPING SOUTH 
INTO OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING 
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 1500 
FT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A HALF OF INCH OR LESS WITH THE HILLS 
BEING THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE HIGHER ACCUMULATION DUE TO OROGRAPHICS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW SLIDES SOUTH AND
THEN ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DRAMATICALLY AS THICKNESS VALUES DROP TO 522 
DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -6 DEGREES C. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER 
ACCORDINGLY TO AROUND 1500-2000 FT. LOWER SNOW LEVEL ARE 
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE COLD POOL MOVES INTO OUR 
AREA. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS 
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY PICKING UP WHERE THE OTHER ONE LEFT 
OFF AND MAINTAINING SHOWERY AND COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE END 
OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED 
THEY MAINTAIN A WET FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.