Morning Moonset & SNOW

      Morning Moonset, originally uploaded by wind_dancer.

Sunday, 12/14 – NOTE: as per my usual, the most recent entries are here at the top, morning entries start at the bottom, if interested.

11 pm – Total rain today thus far, is 1 and 1/2 inches, bringing the season total to 5.5 inches. No snow, but steady heavy rain all night. I’ll check in in the morning.

7:30 pm. Dave Allen from Carmel is reporting that all hell is breaking loose. Rain, hail, thunder, lightning. I’m often up to an hour behind town reports, but I’ll let you know if “hell” comes to my mountain side! I just went out and checked my gauge, and I have received another 1/2 inch since it got dark. That brings the year’s total to 4.75 inches.

Dark, thirty. By dark, I received 1/4 inch of precipitation for the day, which was snowing, on and off. dark, it turned to rain and slush, which seems to have continued for the last hour. I will report again as necessary.

WOW!! 9:35 am BIG snowflakes!! WOW BIG snowflakes!! It rarely sticks during the day up here, unless there is a “base” from the night before, but we’ll see. 

The precipitation forecast map predicts we will get 3/4 of an inch in the next 24 hours. Temps at 9:30 am are: Chew’s Ridge, 29; Highland’s Peak, 38; Nepenthe, 46. Nepenthe is clearly the place to be this morning! And here is a portion of today’s  (12/14) forecast discussion:

INDICATIONS ARE
 THAT THE INCOMING MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE STEERED MAINLY 
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOWER 
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE MOST 
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD. PRIMARY 
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SNOW LEVELS AND QPF. 
MODEL FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE SNOW LEVELS OF BETWEEN 
2500 AND 3500 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF COOLING THAT 
HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND THE DRY AIR
STILL IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD RESULT
IN SNOW LEVELS BEING MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED...PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET TODAY IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO 
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TODAY BELOW 2000 FEET. IF SO...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEEDED. CURRENT 
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR 
SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WOULD IMPACT HIGHER ELEVATION ROADWAYS 
IN THE SF BAY AREA...EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. 
LATEST GFS...AND ESPECIALLY NAM...DIRECT MOST MOISTURE 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY
(Ed. note: That's us, boys and girls!)