5:00 pm – Clearly, the major snow accumulations did not materialize, unless they will do so tonight, but they are not expected to. It was an odd bag all afternoon, with periods of snow, hail, and rain – even an attempt at sunshine. Small amounts of snow, but nothing worth photographing. The latest forecast discussion warn of high winds and significant rain Saturday night into Sunday
1:45 pm – currently snowing. Whew, quite the snow storm. And not an hour ago, I caught a glimpse of blue sky.
Noon – forgot rain totals. 1.25 overnight; 19.75 for the season. Snow still on the ground, when clouds clear, looks like Cone Peak has a good dusting. Some blue sky through the clouds. Systems up for the rest of the day, so will report when there IS anything to report. Stay warm, all
10:45 am – SIGNIFICANT hail, but short-lived. It is now snowing again.
10:00 am – snow has not continued, and is now melting. We will see what the rest of the day brings.
7:00 am – snow is really blowing in. Will continue with updates throughout the day.
6:00 am – Snow. It isn’t particularly thick, yet, but it is definitely covering everything. I will try to get photos at some point today and upload them. We are also having some good winds.
The forecast discussion moderates snow totals this am, and was not released until 5:30 am. It is lengthy, but produced below.
BOTH MT VACA AND KMUX RADARS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE BAY AREA AS OF
4:30 AM. AREA GAUGES HAVE ALREADY RECORDED A FEW TENTHS AND UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROFILER DATA INDICATED SNOW LEVELS ARE DROPPING
TO 2500-3000 FEET. THAT BEING SAID...PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. THIS FITS WELL WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY(SEE SFOWSWMTR). THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS OFF THE NORCAL COAST MOVING EASTWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE
THE SHOW LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AND POSSIBLY
A PEAK OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CONT TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING MORE COLD AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE BAY AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. THEREFORE...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD. ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK...WILL BE THE POSSIBLE BREAK WITH PRECIP AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IMPACTING SNOW
TOTALS. THE BREAK IN THE ACTION CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A DISTINCT WESTERN EDGE ON AREA RADARS. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED DEPENDING UPON THE BREAK.
ONE CHANGE WITH THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TO DRASTICALLY SLOW DOWN
THE NEXT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
CWA BY LATE SATURDAY AND NOW THE LATEST RUNS DELAYS IT UNTIL ALMOST
SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT...A DEEPER SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE DIGGING MORE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SLOWING DOWN. ONE
THING IS FOR SURE...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE LATE SATURDAY AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT 295K BEGINS AND REALLY GETS CRANKING BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT
PRECIP TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT WINTER WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. IF MODEL QPF IS CORRECT...MUCH OF THE REGION
COULD SEE 0.5 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TERRAIN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL...WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY.
4:00 am – rain began an hour ago, no snow, as of yet. The usual 4 am forecast discussion has not been posted. Will check later. As of the present time, CHP is reporting no road problems in Big Sur. Will update with rain and season totals later this morning.
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