This is this afternoon’s NOAA forecast (more of the same, and for longer than originally anticipated.)”SO AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FEET LATER TUESDAY…POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAYS. NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS PREDICTING FREEZING MIN TEMPERATURES RIGHT TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BY THURSDAY MORNING.” Winter weather advisory issued. Oh, joy!

At noon today, the outside temperature here is 42 degrees. Another .20 inches brings the season total to 7.4″. I shiver to think what it was at 6 am! Slight showers have been present this morning, and could easily be this afternoon, as well. Yet another cold front is moving in this evening into tomorrow, and snow is expected in the Sierras down to 2,000 ft.

Per one forecaster: “Today’s upper-level charts indicate a southward flowing jet stream, stretching off the coast of Alaska all the way south to Baja California. This condition will allow very cold air to filter into the Central Coast on Wednesday. Morning low temperatrues may reach the 20s in the [Santa Lucia Range] by Thanksgiving Day morning.”

Oh, brrrr …. !

On another note: Audubon California is holding a contest for Bird of the Year and the California Condor is nominated. Cast your vote at the Audubon site here.

9:30 am – a tree is down, blocking both the north and south bound lanes near River Inn. And, yes, there is snow on Cone Peak. The clouds parted long enough for me to get a shot.

9:00 am – more rain. It is expected to rain on and off all day. Correction – IT IS SNOWING!!

I am very grateful for the merino wool cap, gloves, and sweater I picked up in NZ. Wish I’d gotten the socks, too!

8:00 am – The wind is still racing across the landscape, and there is a mixture of blue skies and serious clouds, and the temperature is 41 degrees – inside! Last night, I received .85 inches, for a season total of 7.20. No snow, by the way, and I even woke at 3 am to check. Can’t see Cone Peak due to the clouds to see if it got any.

Given the high winds (leading to downed trees), and amount of rain over the last two days (almost 3 and 1/2 inches), I am certain that Plaskett is impassable today. Given the conditions, I don’t feel comfortable trying to make the Celebration of Life for Seanan Moses today. I hope you all understand and know I am there in spirit.

The hard closure of Highway 9 in Santa Cruz at Henry Cowell SP due to a downed tree remained in effect overnight. It should reopen sometime this morning.

FOR MY SANTA CRUZ NEIGHBORS – WIRES DOWN EVERY WHERE. TREE BLOCKING HIGHWAY 9 AT HENRY COWELL STATE PARK, BOTH LANES. FELL ON VEHICLE AND TRYING TO EXTRACT DRIVER. HARD CLOSURE BEING ISSUED FOR HIGHWAY 9.

In other areas, flooding, accidents, major disruptions in Santa Cruz, Hollister areas, and Northern Monterey County. Be very careful!

8:25 pm – whoa, it just hit with a vengeance! Major wind, sleet, hail, rain! Second storm has definitely hit. Will check in probably only one more time tonight. Enjoy, but be safe, and stay off Highway One if at all possible tonight.

6:45 pm – I’m not an expert, but it feels as if the front has arrived. The wind has picked up, the temperature has dropped, and I would not be surprised to see snow before I go to bed.

5:30 pm – large rock in the road near River Inn & a disabled vehicle. I’m guessing they are connected. 😉 CHP is on the way. Watch out for rocks, particularly here on the South Coast. Cal-Trans is not out at night clearing. Still no rain or snow, but I’ll be checking until I turn out the lights for bed.

Noon – clouds suddenly forming rapidly. (is that redundant?) They seem to be “forming” as opposed to blowing in from the north or the west. I take it back. I went outside and watched the cloud movement, and they do appear to be moving in from the northwest.

Time to make one last round to dump the gauge, check to make sure everything is tight and covered. Has been quite crisp all day, so far. Heat required in doors.

8:00 am – Current conditions here are clear and crisp. A condensation cloud is trying to form here on the mtn. top, and I’m sure it will be successful, eventually. There is *no* snow visible on Cone Peak or elsewhere.

Rain total is 2.6 inches, for a season total of 6.35 inches. Temperature is 44 degrees. There are low clouds out on the horizon, but otherwise, I don’t see today’s predicted storm forming anywhere,but will, of course, be watching for it

NOAA prediction for today and tomorrow: “RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.25-0.75 FOR MOST LOCATIONS…BUT THE HILLS COULD SEE 0.75-2.0 INCHES. IN ADDITION..SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000-3500 FEET LATER TODAY. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST BAY HILLS WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. ATTM THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE SANTA LUCIAS WITH 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.”

4 pm – .25 inches of rain, thus far, and currently 40 degrees. Getting into the silk long johns tonight. Also, NOAA issued this advisory today: ” SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP THROUGH THE EVENT AND COULD BE DOWN TO 2500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THE PEAKS OVER 3000 FEET WILL LIKELY RECEIVE SOME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DURING THE WEEKEND MAKING TRAVEL POTENTIALLY DIFFICULT.” Well, I am stocked – dog food, wine, books, and movies, oh, and food – and hunkered down, so won’t be trying to get out, absent an emergency.

Woke to drizzle this morning, but less than .10, so not yet counting. From NOAA yesterday:
“WITH SNOW LEVELS FORECAST TO BE UNDER 3000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT…WINDY CONDITIONS…AND ENOUGH QPF (OVER 1″ FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH UP TO 1/2″ FOR CITIES) TO BRING MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW…TRAVEL COULD BECOME VERY TRICKY.”
Today’s predictions:
“ALONG WITH THE RAIN…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THE COLD AIR WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 2500-3000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF OVER AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE GREATEST SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED IN THE SANTA LUCIAS WITH 24 HOUR SNOW FALL OF AROUND 4.0 INCHES EXPECTED SATURDAY AND AN ADDITIONAL 3.0 INCHES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.”

NOAA issued no advisories, as it believes the warm temperatures of the ground will keep the accumulations down, but personally, I am preparing to be snowed in by Sunday. Photos a definite possibility, as well as reports, of course.

BTW, it is quite cold this morning, and if expected to be colder, this could get very interesting! Never had snow this early, and rarely get that much! Stay tuned!

… is loosely woven, but has the tensile strength of steel. We are a community that is far-reaching, and yet, very close. We are the town of 500 from 1/2 a century ago where your parents grew up. We are who you want to be and can be, wherever you live.

Tonight, I am just getting home from the fundraiser for one of our own. It was some of the best of what Big Sur is … and what the human species is – caring, loving, giving, sharing. It is what we aspire to, and it was inspired by a beautiful young woman.

Rachael Short, you would be proud and humbled by all those who came out tonight to support your recovery. Blessings to you, your family, your friends, and your larger Big Sur family who deeply care.

Tomorrow, I will give a more objective report with photos of the great gift the River Inn gave Rachael and all of us. Namasté.

Per NOAA on Sunday: “BY THURSDAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AND JUST INDUCE FURTHER COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND ZERO. SHOWER CHANCES ENTER INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SPOKES OF ENERGY THAT WILL BE HARD TO TIME WILL KEEP A COOL AND SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE BAY AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER WELL BELOW 4000 FEET BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.”

And NOAA on Monday: “OVERALL 1/4 TO 3/4 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND TIME-FRAME. LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS…PROBABLY SETTLING SOMEWHERE IN THE 3500-4000 FEET RANGE NORTH TO SOUTH.”

A SLO forecaster had this to say on Monday: “This second cold front is expected [to] be cool with snow levels in the Sierra getting as low as 2,500 feet north and 4,000 feet south. Snow totals in the Sierra may add up to a few feet by Monday night.”

Interesting. Let’s see what this one does as it gets closer.