2015-2016 winter El Niño predictions

Okay, I am reading predictions of a super El Niño, rivaling 1998. So how accurate are these predictions? Per NOAA, it depends on when the prediction is made. In Spring, NO reliability, but as we move away from Spring, the predictions become more accurate.there is a great chart that demonstrates this.  

In the meantime, this is what forecasters are saying:

NOAA’s CFSv2 model is forecasting a strong El Nino event will develop this summer and continue through 2015. Warm water along the west coast, combined with weaker than normal winds caused by El Nino will prevent nutrient rich cold water from welling up along the coast. Species that depend on nutrient upwelling will face starvation. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has an excellent El Nino forecasting model which is also predicting a strong El Nino. Because the jet stream has already gone into an El Nino pattern by moving south over the eastern Pacific ocean and Mexico and further north than normal over the eastern Atlantic ocean, the likelihood of El Nino failing to strengthen is small. Last year’s Kelvin wave failed to bring on a strong El Nino because trade winds in the south Pacific didn’t weaken but this year they have and waters along the west coast of south America have already warmed. The south Pacific has moved out of the cool mode it was in a year ago.”  

I will continue to explore and discuss this possibility as it developers, and IF it developers as predicted, I will explore what that means in terms of road closures for Big Sur by looking at what happened in 1998, the last Super El Niño.

6 thoughts on “2015-2016 winter El Niño predictions

  1. how about the resilient ridge parked outside the west coast which they say is preventing the rain, how would they break that one apart?

  2. Jane, I think the ridiculously resilient ridge has already broken down, or we wouldn’t have had those April storms, the last of which brought 1 & 1/2-2″


  3. I read the same NOAA information re: Australia and warming waters along our coastline with sea lion die off, etc on The Daily Kos site. They said we should have heavy rainfall from the Fall through December. Time will tell!

  4. Winter in Ottawa,El Nino, another winter of 98 ,bring it on always wanted to see the Queensway close down

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