Due to the upcoming atmospheric river and high likelihood for debris flows, parts of State Route 1 in Big Sur will be closed with barricades and signs beginning at 5:00PM on Tues, January 26 and is expected to remain closed until Thur, January 28. More info tomorrow.@CaltransD5

Evacuation Warning Issued for Carmel, River and Dolan Fire Burn Scar Areas

CLARIFICATION FROM MCSO: If you are not living in close proximity to a burn scar, you may have received a message in error. If you are unsure if you are in an evacuation zone visit the evacuation map: https://bit.ly/2MpXkgU

WHEN: Effective January 25th at 4:00 p.m.

WHERE: Carmel, River and Dolan Fires burn scar areas

WHAT: The Monterey County Sheriff’s Office has issued an Evacuation Warning for areas within and two miles downslope of the Carmel Fire, River Fire, and Dolan Fire burn scars due to the upcoming atmospheric river and the high likelihood for debris flows. There is also currently a Flash Flood Watch in place.

The Evacuation Warning will take effect Monday. January 25th at 4:00 p.m.

This warning is being given well in advance of our incoming storm system due to anticipated rainfall. Beginning late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, the US National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey California is predicting 8 to 10 inches of rain over the course of the storm in the Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest in Monterey County, which would impact all wildfire burn scar areas.

The Evacuation Warning that will be in place will be upgraded to an Evacuation Order if the Flash Flood Watch in place upgrades to a Flash Flood Warning, but those who live in dangerous areas are highly encouraged to consider leaving sooner for their safety. Due to heavy winds, those who need to leave one of the impacted areas could find exit routes impassable. Once an Evacuation Order has been issued there will likely be less than 30 minutes to evacuate.

An Evacuation Warning means individuals need to be prepared to leave immediately with a ‘go bag’ and planned evacuation route. If your situation requires more time to evacuate than an Evacuation Order allows, consider leaving early to avoid delays due to traffic congestion.

An Evacuation Order is expected to be issued at 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday, January 26th.

If you feel that your life is in danger, do not wait for an emergency notification.

To find out what evacuation zone you are in, please visit: https://montereyco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=8bf14faf5680431a8c961274ced2245f

Winter Storm Preparedness: http://www.co.monterey.ca.us/winterstorm

To register for emergency alerts, visit: http://www.alertmontereycounty.org

To receive text message updates, text: Text “MCWINTER” to 888777

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Advertencia de evacuación emitida para las cicatrices de quemaduras de los incendios Carmel, River y Dolan
CUANDO: Efectivo el 25 de enero a las 4:00 p.m.
DÓNDE: Las cicatrices de quemaduras de los incendios Carmel, River y Dolan
QUÉ: La Oficina de Alguaciles del Condado de Monterey ha emitido una advertencia de evacuación para las áreas dentro y dos millas cuesta abajo de las cicatrices de quemaduras de los incendios Carmel, River y Dolan debido al próximo río atmosférico y la alta probabilidad de flujos de escombros. Actualmente también hay una alerta de inundaciones repentinas.
La advertencia de evacuación entrará en vigor el lunes 25 de enero a las 4:00 p.m
Esta advertencia se da mucho antes de nuestro sistema de tormentas entrante debido a las lluvias anticipadas. Desde la noche del martes hasta la madrugada del miércoles, el servicio meteorológico nacional pronostica de 8 a 10 pulgadas de lluvia durante el transcurso de la tormenta en las montañas de Santa Lucía y el bosque nacional Los Padres en el condado de Monterey, lo que afectaría todas las áreas de cicatrices de quemaduras de incendios forestales.
La advertencia de evacuación que se implementará se actualizará a una orden de evacuación si la alerta de inundación repentina en su lugar se actualiza a una advertencia de inundación repentina, pero se recomienda encarecidamente a aquellos que viven en áreas peligrosas que consideren irse antes por su seguridad. Debido a los fuertes vientos, quienes necesiten salir de una de las áreas impactadas podrían encontrar las rutas de salida intransitables. Una vez que se ha emitido una orden de evacuación, es probable que haya menos de 30 minutos para evacuar.
Una advertencia de evacuación significa que las personas deben estar preparadas para irse de inmediato con una “bolsa de viaje” y una ruta de evacuación planificada. Si su situación requiere más tiempo para evacuar del que permite una orden de evacuación, considere salir temprano para evitar retrasos debido a la congestión del tráfico.
Se espera que se emita una orden de evacuación a las 4:00 p.m. el martes 26 de enero.
Si siente que su vida está en peligro, no espere una notificación de emergencia.
• Para saber en qué zona de evacuación se encuentra, visite: http://www.co.monterey.ca.us/winterstorm
• Para registrarse para recibir alertas de emergencia, visite: http://www.alertmontereycounty.org
• Para recibir actualizaciones por mensaje de texto, envía “MCWINTER” al 888777

From Daniel Swain of Weather West:
“During the Wednesday/Thursday cold frontal passage, it is more likely than not that hourly rainfall rates will exceed thresholds capable of triggering significant debris flows over portions of the LNU Complex, CZU Complex, SCU Complex, and Dolan Fire burn scars from 2020. The highest risks to people may be in/near the LNU/CZU scars due to proximity to populated areas, but the highest meteorological risk may actually be in Monterey County.

This is because the front and associated AR is expected to stall somewhere along the Monterey/SLO County coast on Wednesday before lifting slightly back *northward* by Wednesday night as a mesoscale frontal wave develops. It’s still not 100% clear exactly where this stall will occur, but I would expect a swath of widespread 5-10 inch rainfall where this occurs (and locally 15 inches or more in orographically favored parts of the stall zone). Some flooding could occur even outside of wildfire risk zones around the location of this stall. Right now, Monterey County looks like the most likely bullseye for this–but it could happen as far north as Santa Cruz County. Even absent a stall, rain rates across the Santa Cruz Mountain burn scar will be concerning–but if the AR does find its way back north for a second pass, local concerns will be further exacerbated.”

Interactive #GIS map showing risk of #DebisFlow for wildland fires. For the legend and to get the most benefit from the map, please click “Map tips” in upper left corner. To search on address click Menu > Search. #CAwx

Open #GISsurfer map: bit.ly/39Y5BRA

2/_ The map opens at the #CZULightningComplex. You can pan the map to other 2020 fires and see the same type of data. Be patient! The map might be slow to refresh. It depends in part on how much other work the GIS server is doing.

3/_ The map can display the risk of debris flow for fires back to 2018. Here is one way to make a map to see the risk of debris flow for a fire prior to 2020:
A. Click the basemap button and look under the “Overlays” heading
B. Click “Turn off all overlays”

4/_
C. Pan the map to the approximate area.
D. Click the basemap button, look under the “Overlays” heading and turn on layers in the following order:
ESRI roads and labels
State boundary
(year) Basin combined hazard
All streams rivers lakes
Segment combined hazard

CAVEAT: I HAVE NOT TRIED THIS MYSELF AND CANNOT HELP YOU NAVIGATE IT, BUT THIS NAVIGATING IS FOR FIRES BEFORE 2020 AS I UNDERSTAND IT.