Sunday 9/5/21

Tomorrow is Labor Day. Today all the National Forests in CA are closed. Those of us who live in or near a national forest are breathing a little eaiser. There are no resources to fight another fire, and the resources we have are exhausted. This time last year we were fighting the Dolan Fire. Today, this flag stands tall at the Nacimiento Station. It is a reminder of all that our firefighters give to us each season. We thank and honor all of you, regardless of the color you wear. This is a good time to remind everyone to remember and support our Big Sur first responders by making a donation here:

8 thoughts on “Sunday 9/5/21

  1. Yes! Let us, Pay it Forward!
    Especially, to all First Responder groups, including our military. I was with friends recently, & we were discussing what a great & rare, role model these public servants are, as they don’t seem to allow politics to disturb their great works! What a breath of fresh air! 🇺🇸

  2. Hi Kate and All, Here we are again in another dreadful fire summer and things look like they are only going to get worst, yes I said worst till the Fall rains arrive (if they even arrive this year??). Good and Bad news is we are getting through the negative cold North Pacific Decadel Ocillation (NPDO) (arrived 2011 if my records are correct?) that has been teleconnecting with positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Negative Phase ENSO and very unactive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) being disrupted by equatorial Rossby waves and atmospheric Kelvin waves during our Northern Hemispheric Winters. This global pattern supports these 10 year fire cycles within the hundred year fire cycles in the West (2011- 2021-2022? fire cycle) and our fuel load is almost expended now so we shouldn’t have to worry about these big fires having huge swaths to burn much longer in most of California (that’s my hope at least). Moreover there is optimism for large global climatic shifts that support lower pressures along the lower latitudes off the West Coast of North America during late November thru mid February. That is the good news. The bad news is the rest of the Summer 2021 is not looking good for areas that have not already burned out like our Monterey Pine forests (i hear and hope Cal Trans cleans up the homeless encampments along highway 1 in dry pine forests), Yosemite Valley, Kirkwood and other ski resorts…most of the rest and west has burned in last 10-15 years sadly. The other bad news is the wetter pattern I am discussing is supported by a very complex large synergistic systemic interaction of almost all the atmospheric wind patterns in earth and is not a one year El Nino event but Decadal in spatial extent and this takes more time to teleconnect. This wetter pattern is not looking to arrive this Winter of 2021-2022 but more around 2022-2023 and from what I am observing might start becoming wetter into 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 Winters. This is hinging on the formation of warmer oceanic Kelvin waves pushing into the far eastern equatorial pacific region and not rising to surface in the central equatorial Pacific supportive of Modoki El Nino and drier Winters. If ENSO tips toward east based positive next Spring 2022, NPDO toward positive, IOD toward positive, then the tripole (+west Indian, -east Indian,-west pacific,+central +east Pacific) is set in place for the MJO engine to get cranking and supportive of a more positive North America Pattern or extension of the Asia Pacific Jet stream. *Word of note that the West equatorial Pacific is one of warmest oceans on the planet and even when below normal is very warm and conducive to strong updrafts and thunderstorm development. This positive phase of the North America Pattern is frowned upon as being dry for California during normal years however if the MJO is active it will race over to the far eastern equatorial Pacific and settle in creating a low pressure area and weakening the North Pacific High that deflects the Asia Pacific Jet above California and instead allowing the wet jet stream to take aim at Central California. I have hope that we have not entered a mega drought and what climate scientists call “magic gates” meaning the atmosphere is never going to return to what it was. That is a very true possibility if CO2 levels keep rising and if this is the case we are in some serious trouble with not just fire but water sources vanishing (i highly recommend “Cadillac Desert mini series” on youtube!). I forgot Glen Canyon almost failed in 1983- which would have destroyed Hoover most definitely- and the LA St Francis dam complete failure in 1928. When we have big Winters again if we ever do these dams are going to be tested when full after so long being empty!

  3. Indeed, we are learning & bigly, that Mother Nature is always in charge, & it’s our job now, in this time of Earth & Weather change, to learn to work with her, as best we can ~☆~

  4. I would also encourage donations to the Wildland Firefighter Foundation, they provide immediate financial and crisis assistance to families of fallen or injured wildland firefighters. (

  5. It’s not so much the quantity of fuel (beyond certain points), but the “quality.” Very small (<1/2 inch) material fuels the big, impressive flame-fronts, and post-burn regrowth is mostly of that size. I'm stopping here because there is an intrusive pop-up, blocking the view of some of my text. Have you been hacked, or why is the "View Complete Profile" for michael intruding? I'm sending you a screen shot directly, Kate.

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