From NOAA: as of 09:58 AM PDT Thursday...First and foremost, after coordinating with fire agencies and neighboring offices the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Dry Lightning. Red Flag Warning is valid from 5 PM Thursday through 11 AM Friday. Still the biggest concern is focused on better dynamics later this afternoon and overnight leading to increased lightning potential. An early look at the 12Z model data still shows a potential for lightning this afternoon and overnight. Per morning spotter reports and a slight uptick in moisture there could be less likelihood for just dry thunderstorms. Even with some wetter storm potential the fuels are dry and storms will be moving so new starts are possible. The other challenging part of the equation is the ever shifting maxima of lightning potential. Yesterday`s runs looked more favorable for the N Bay and today`s runs shifts it to the E Bay. Low confidence, but high impact part of the forecast. Last but not least, how far south should the threat for lightning go? Models have been slowly trending the threat farther south, but confidence is still low to include interior San Benito. This will be watched closely.