Red Flag Warning issued

From NOAA: as of 09:58 AM PDT Thursday...First and foremost,
after coordinating with fire agencies and neighboring offices the
Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Dry
Lightning. Red Flag Warning is valid from 5 PM Thursday through
11 AM Friday.

Still the biggest concern is focused on better dynamics later
this afternoon and overnight leading to increased lightning
potential. An early look at the 12Z model data still shows a
potential for lightning this afternoon and overnight. Per morning
spotter reports and a slight uptick in moisture there could be
less likelihood for just dry thunderstorms. Even with some wetter
storm potential the fuels are dry and storms will be moving so new
starts are possible. The other challenging part of the equation is
the ever shifting maxima of lightning potential. Yesterday`s runs
looked more favorable for the N Bay and today`s runs shifts it to
the E Bay. Low confidence, but high impact part of the forecast.
Last but not least, how far south should the threat for lightning
go? Models have been slowly trending the threat farther south, but
confidence is still low to include interior San Benito. This will
be watched closely.

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