9:30 am, NOAA/NWS Forecast Discussion:

DISCUSSION...as of 08:25 AM PST Friday...Water vapor imagery
shows the southward progression of the moisture plume associated
with this atmospheric river. Due to this, dry air has begun to
move across the North Bay area. Radar indicates a continuation of
rainfall primarily across Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, Monterey and
San Benito counties. Heaviest rainfall will be along the coast of
Monterey County including Big Sur. This looks to remain the case
until this afternoon, when the moisture tap moves further south
limiting the potential for rainfall. Expect showers, more limited
in coverage, this evening into the overnight hours. Mainstem river
flooding will remain a concern as rivers continue to rise and
crest throughout the day. Urban flooding will also continue to
plague the area along with damage associated with winds and the
potential for landslides.

9 am – Las night, highway 1 was closed from Deetjen’s to Ragged Point. This morning around 8:30, they moved the southern closure to Elephant Seal vista. As of 7 am this morning, Mining Ridge has received 9” of rain. The latest forecast (3 am?) says the heaviest rain will be today. This photo was sent to me by Sylvia Trotter, sent to her by her son Marshall, who believes it originated with a county roads crew.

Says the wash out is at Chimney Rock Road at Dawn Road same as last storm, only this time took out the whole road.

Date:	Thursday, March 9, 2023, at 5:40 p.m.
District:	05 – Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Cruz Counties
Contact:	Kevin Drabinski or Alexa Bertola
Phone:	(805) 549-3138 or (805) 549-3237

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

UPDATE #26

HIGHWAY 1 CLOSED DUE TO RAIN AND ROCKFALL 

BETWEEN RAGGED POINT AND DEETJEN’S INN

MONTEREY / SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES – Due to multiple reports of rockfall and at the request of the California Highway Patrol, Highway 1 is now closed from Ragged Point Inn in San Luis Obispo County to just south of Deetjen’s Big Sur Inn in Monterey County.

Updates will be provided tomorrow as crews are able to assess road conditions during daylight hours.

Road information and updates can also be found on Caltrans District 5 Social Media platforms: Twitter at: @CaltransD5, Facebook at: Caltrans Central Coast (District 5) and Instagram at: Caltrans_D5.

Our crews deserve to get home safely too.

Drive slowly and carefully in work zones.

CHP Traffic Incident Information Page: http://cad.chp.ca.gov

Traveler information at: https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov

###

Kevin Drabinski

Public Information Officer

Unless Caltrans and the chp close highway 1 down tonight, I probably won’t be trying to keep up with all the highway issues, but for now:

 0 Sr1 Loc Desc:

 NB 1 IF MONASTERY BEACH Lat/Lon:

 36.521836 -121.928174 

Detail Information
4:15 PM	2	[6] 1039 CALTRANS DISPATCH
4:12 PM	1	[2] TREE DOWN 1125 NB LN AND PARTIAL SB LN

Here is the county’s interactive map on evacuations:

https://montereyco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=905a9458324b4868804d96b5593eb978

Two more just added:

Big Sur Community

Arroyo Seco River area

Evacuation Warnings for the following four areas effective immediately.

Evacuation Warning for Pajaro Community

areas of Carmel River

Carmel River Lagoon

areas of Bolsa Knolls

We are reminding residents to take any needed precautions as the storm approaches, including securing their homes or property with sandbags and signing up for emergency notifications.

If you live near any of the county’s burn scars, rivers, or other flood-prone areas, Monterey County has sandbags and sand stockpiles to help you protect your property during stormy weather.

Here is a list of sandbag pick-up locations:

https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/home/showpublisheddocument/106154/637964278693600000?fbclid=IwAR2z_y5RJdFZTY3nQErXW3TzaC-o8vMS7zl0hHD_p01DBd7oRWt7bZZvdsc

Here is a list of sand stockpile locations:

https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/home/showpublisheddocument/106222/638022234123930000?fbclid=IwAR15RW0091S1dzQy5XwagIUfQDqBxCq_4GbupR97KX-riIugxV-2NkjhGEI

Residents can sign up for emergency notifications by text or email. Options are here:

https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/government/departments-a-h/administrative-office/office-of-emergency-services/ready-monterey-county/sign-up-for-alerts

Maia CarrollCommunications CoordinatorCounty of Montereycarrollm@co.monterey.ca.us(831) 796-3092

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a Flood Watch in effect Thursday afternoon 3/9 – Sunday morning, 3/12 for Monterey County WHAT: Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. WHERE: Monterey County WHEN: Thursday afternoon, 3/9 – Sunday morning, 3/12 IMPACTS: Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers/creeks/streams & other low-lying/flood-prone locations. Creeks & streams will see rapid rises. Flooding may occur in poor drainage & urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains & ditches may become clogged with debris. Urban and small stream flooding is expected along with a 25% exceedance probability that some main stem rivers may rise above flood stage. PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS: Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. www.weather.gov/safety/flood NWS: inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=80744408 More Info: bit.ly/3lV9OPz

Also, this just in from NWS: “

While
all coastal mountain regions in our CWA will see higher rain
totals, the focus remains across the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia
Mountains of the Big Sur coast. For Santa Cruz Mtns, peak rain
totals Thursday through Friday had ranged 4.5-6.3" but have now
increased to a range of 5-7.5". For Santa Lucia Mtns, peak rain
totals had ranged 5-7.5" but increased to a range of 8-10.5".

NOAA’s Global Forecast System (#GFS) 0600Z model run is advertising between 2 and 4 inches of rainfall with heavier amounts in the Santa Lucia Mountains, while the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (#ECMWF) is predicting between 3 to 6 inches. Due to the subtropical nature of this system, snow levels will be above 8,000 feet and could cause flooding due to snow melt in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Please stay tuned for watches and warnings from the National Weather Service’s offices at weather.gov/lox/ and weather.gov/hnx/. It’s a good idea for residents in flood-prone areas to have emergency plans in place and be prepared to evacuate if necessary. Learning from past experiences and using that knowledge to inform present and future decisions are always valuable.

After a break in the rain on Sunday and Monday, another storm is forecast to produce gusty southerly winds and rain on Tuesday into next Wednesday. (John Lindsey, Meteorologist for PG&E, SLO Co.)

Another Meteorologist, Dr, Ryan Maue, writes:

Friday is first major Pineapple Express onslaught of moisture into California. Then, early next week another sequence of storms.

Rain and snowfall estimates are astounding for next 1-2 weeks.

Sad to say, but this type of rain/snow combo in mid-March is all trending from bad to worse.

Updated: from NWS- SF Bay, Thursday nite could see upwards of 2” in the mountains of Big Sur, but Friday is the day:

Friday:
- North Bay: 1.25"-3" (highest in the coastal mountains)
- SF Peninsula: 1.25"-3.25" (highest in the coastal terrain)
- East Bay: 0.8"-2.25" (highest in terrain closer to Bay
  Shoreline)
- South Bay: 1"-3.5" (highest in Santa Cruz Mtns)
- Santa Cruz: 2"-4.25" (highest in Santa Cruz Mtns)
- Monterey & San Benito Counties: 0.50"-6" (highest along Big Sur
  Mtns, lowest across southeastern portions of each county)

I prepared this post before I got last night’s email from Monterey County warning Big Sur Residents and Businesses to stock up on essential items for at least two weeks. I watched the predictions become more clear and stronger about the atmospheric river that is expected to hit the central coast Thursday night and last thru Friday into Saturday.

John Chesnut sent me this map last night around 10. Today, I am off to stock up on essential items, and some not so essential, but definitely wanted items.

This map is for the 10 days from 3/6 to 3/16. The map is from: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023030612&fh=240&r=us_sw&dpdt=&mc=

From our local NWS yesterday: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ528&warncounty=CAC053&firewxzone=CAZ528&local_place1=Carmel%20Valley%20Village%20CA&product1=Hydrologic+Outlook&lat=36.47&lon=-121.732#.ZAZsOC-IafA

Latest model
  guidance suggests the coastal slopes of the Santa Cruz Mountains
  and Santa Lucia Mountains will receive the greatest
  accumulation of precipitation with particular concern for the
  Salinas, Pajaro and Carmel rivers.

* WHEN...Late Thursday through Saturday. Moderate rainfall
  expected across the entire Northern and Central California
  coast. The heaviest rainfall accumulation and periods of
  potentially intense rain rates are expected late Thursday into
  Friday over the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia Mountains Showers
  will linger into Saturday.

The County of Monterey’s Department of Emergency Management is urging residents and businesses of Big Sur to begin stocking up with at least 2 weeks of essential supplies in anticipation of an atmospheric river weather event. The National Weather Service is predicting that a strong weather system, stronger than recent systems, may arrive late Thursday of this week lasting several days. 

Current hydrographic estimates have all rivers rising, with the Big Sur River reaching “action stage” and other Monterey County rivers getting close to “action stage” by the weekend.  

This is a preliminary notice in an effort to provide Monterey County residents and Big Sur residents in particular ample time to prepare. Weather conditions are subject to change and the Department of Emergency Management will provide regular updates as information becomes available from the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  

The County also recommends residents who have not already done so to sign up for Alert Monterey County, a free service that pushes out emergency information to subscribers as soon as it becomes available. More information is available at https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/government/departments-a-h/administrative-office/office-of-emergency-services/ready-monterey-county/sign-up-for-alerts. 

Maia CarrollCommunications CoordinatorCounty of Montereycarrollm@co.monterey.ca.us(831) 796-3092

I got this yesterday, but didn’t want to ruin your weekend. This may or may not happen. Just stay tuned, and prepare as if it is will. .Brought to you by the NWS, SF Bay area — the graphics, not the rain. Last night, the NWS added this into their forecast discussion:

There is so much uncertainty still surrounding
this system, but the confidence is there to increase awareness and
preparation for the potential impacts with this system late this
week.