Winter 2026-2027, El Niño, 9/29

From my favorite climate scientist, Dr. Daniel Swain, at weatherwest.com

“There has been quite a bit of early discussion regarding California’s 2026-2027 rainy season, and for good reason–with a record-breaking El Niño event likely to become the dominant influence on prevailing weather patterns this winter across the North Pacific, the odds of a wetter-than-average winter are very high nearly statewide, and the possibility of an exceptionally wet season are considerably elevated above baseline levels. But interestingly, the relationship between strong El Niño events and California precipitation events does not really emerge in the data–either in observations or in process-based model studies–until November at the earliest, and more likely December. In fact: the strongest connection actually does [not] arise until the new year, from January through March. In other words: the expected relationship is very “back-weighted,” with the strongest links not occurring until the second half of the rainy season.”

What does this mean for the Big Sur burn areas from the Timber and Plaskett Fires? This website discusses in detail what WERT means, what it does, and how we can prepare. https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/bwg/recent

“California Watershed Emergency Response Teams (WERTs)help communities prepare after wildfire by rapidly documenting and communicating postfire risks to life and property posed by debris flow, flood, and rock fall hazards. The WERT response is led by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) and the California Geological Survey (Department of Conservation). To learn how the CGS works with CAL FIRE and others to analyze landslide potential on newly burned landscapes, visit the CalConservation blog: Notes from the Field.

Requests for WERT report information should be directed to CAL FIRE. (CAL FIRE by default provides WERT evaluation reports and maps to affected communities, flood control managers, and emergency managers.)

Note the date on this article…March 3, 1983

And here are some rain totals for that year:

Many months ago the CGS contacted me because of my reporting on landslides and road closures along Highway One and asked me if I would agree to be a part of a focus group that dealt with how the messaging by OES and others might best convey the information to the public and other agencies surrounding potential landslides and burn debris flow, etc. Some of that in now included on the website. I received the following at the conclusion of the study (which was long before the fires in Big Sur.

Thank you for participating in focus groups to support the development of the California Geological Survey’s landslide and postfire flood and debris flow fact sheets. We have finalized the fact sheets and posted them online and are excited to share them with you!

Landslide fact sheets can be accessed here: https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/landslides

• Guide for public: What are landslide hazards in California?
• Guide for public in Spanish: ¿Cuáles son los peligros de deslizamientos de tierra en California?
• We also developed a guide for emergency managers you will see in this list that provides information for an emergency management/first responder audience.

Postfire flood and debris flow fact sheets can be accessed here: https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/bwg/resources#preparedness

• Guide for public: Floods and debris flows after wildfire
• Guide for public in Spanish: Inundaciones y flujos de escombros después de un incendio forestal
• We also developed a guide for emergency managers you will see in this list that provides information for an emergency management/first responder audience.

I hope all those who live in Big Sur plan well for what could be an interesting winter. As one old-timer put it: “You know how I know we will have a very wet El Niño year? Because we had a fire.”