Category: 2018-2019 El Niño

Active Slide JNO Willow Creek Bridge

It is not stopping any time soon, so road is closed at Ragged Point. Cones out at Slide.

25 PM 6 [18] WILL PUT UP BARRICADES ACROSS THE SO EMG VEH WILL BE ABLE TO PASS IF NEEDED
5:19 PM 5 [11] 12 1097 W/WILLOWSPRING SUPERVISOR
5:13 PM 4 [10] 1039 CLTRNS
5:08 PM 3 [8] A27-012 STOPPING TO PUT OUT ADDITIONAL CONES AT ALDER POINT / SLIDES NOT STOPPING ANYTIME SOON /WINDAND RAIN MOVING INLAND
4:45 PM 2 [3] 1039 WILLOW SPRINGS SCOTT PRYOR- SUPERVISOR 831-206-5397// NA LEFT VM – CALLED 805-459-7461// NA LEFT VM
4:37 PM 1 [1] ACTIVE SLIDE JNO WILLOW CREEK BRDG

 

Today is all about the rain, 11/21/18

5:30 pm – the last hour and 1/2 has been gnarly. Downpours, and inch an hour or more, way over 2” – finished changing my links (I think) so you can check out the 24 hour rain totals in the links to the right. Lost my internet in the height of it, as did a few others.

4 pm – hit the 1″ mark, and now I am busy updating my links so fire is gone and rain is here…

Noon –  major rain and wind now! Wow!

9:45 am

Today, is all about the rain. Comment when it hits where you are, and let us know where that is! So far my day has been about making this welcomed, but forgotten, transition – making sure I stocked the inside wood box, and filled the back-up generator (given the no sun), and I have built a small fire to take the morning chill off, oh, and coffee is in hand.

Rain is coming

From Weather West, aka, Daniel Swain: “The good news: significant, perhaps even fire “season ending” rains possible across much of Northern California by late next week. The bad news: some models suggesting heavy rainfall capable of causing significant post-fire flood/debris flow concerns near #CampFire.” Looks like Big Sur is in the 2 to 3” area. So, is this significant enough to close the gates on Mud Creek and Paul’s Slide? I guess we will see 48 hours out.

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Cal Trans Anticipating Weather Events

“When significant storms are forecasted by NOAA, we will be sending a 48-hour  traffic advisory to our Hwy. 1 group to be ready just in case the roadway needs to close due to an expected significant storm—this will allow prep work, stocking supplies, making plans, etc. At the 24-hour mark, we’ll send a traffic advisory either confirming or cancelling the full closure. This 48/24 hour notices apply only to Paul’s Slide and Mud Creek—each closure treated separately (two separate closures, one may open, the other may not, depending on assessment). We have Geotech, Maintenance and Construction lined up to inspect/clean up the following morning. There will be gates (being installed as we speak) both at Mud Creek and Paul’s Slide that will be locked, no padlocks. These gates will not be manned. No one, including Emergency Services or our own employees will be allowed to go through until a proper assessment can be made, any cleanup necessary done and the roadway safe to travel again.” (I requested this from Susana Cruz after the BSMAAC announcement by Sarah. A more formal public announcement will be made next week.) Thank you, Susana!

Total Rainfall

I received a total of .47” by 10 pm last night. It is still drizzling up here this am, and I may have gotten another few hundredths by now. Love the smell and the feel and the freshness. Son reports that Plaskett is quite slippery. All that dust is now a slippery clay mud.

Got my second wood stove in and completely finished the chimney installation last night. This one is close to my bedroom, near my “command post” so will really help this winter. Solid as a rock. My first stove pipe is a piece of crap. Now that we know how to do it, will redo like the second one. The outside chimney installation is still good, but the inside needs redoing.

Now, I need to work on my wood pile. Hate to keep too much around during fire season.

Weather Report from NOAA

Early Monday morning forecast (a significant change from last night):

However, the 00Z NAM and now 06Z runs of both the
NAM and GFS models indicate the heaviest precipitation will stay
offshore as the closed low shifts southward a bit sooner. This
greatly lowers forecast confidence given so much discrepancy between
the models being only 24 hours out from the onset of more widespread
rainfall. Thus, there is the potential for a "forecast bust" if the
NAM and 06Z run of the GFS are correct.

Now, with this said, the official forecast is more in line with the
00Z run of the GFS, ECMWF and high resolution models. Precipitation
is expected to spread inland over the San Francisco Bay Area after
midnight and into the early morning hours on Tuesday. The main
frontal band will then push across the remainder of the region
through sunrise Tuesday and result in widespread rainfall for much
of the region. With PWAT values forecast to exceed 1.25" and
assuming a more widespread rainfall event, most locations can expect
between 0.25" to 0.75" with isolated amounts of more than 1.00" in
the favorable west/southwest facing slopes across the region.
However, these values could be significantly less if precipitation
along the frontal system falls apart or stays offshore.

Late Sunday nite forecast:

While some rain is expected tonight, fellow South Coasters, pay particular attention to this one for Tuesday night. We are in the bull’s eye… in the “…remote and mainly uninhabited areas…” of south western MoCo near the SLO Co line. Okay – Mud Creek’s first test! Note, confidence level is still low to moderate, but keep an eye out.

Models then show upper low offshore tapping into a moisture plume
pointed at the Central Coast. Last few nam runs and to some
degree the lower resolution global models (gfs,euro) develop a
narrow band of heavy rain along the Big Sur coast Tuesday night
into Weds morning. Confidence is still low to moderate on these
details. Nam model accumulated precip showed nearly a 5 inch
accumulated precip bullseye over extreme sw Monterey county near
the San Luis Obispo county line. Our local wrf model shows an 8
inch bullseye. This is over remote and mainly uninhabited areas
that are usually wet. Have issued a hazardous weather outlook to
highlight this potential for locally heavy rainfall. Late Tuesday
night into early Weds much of Monterey county

Next week’s weather…

From Daniel Swain, aka Weather West: “Models still suggesting potential for unusual pattern next week, with cutoff low offshore CA and landfalling hurricane in far north Baja CA. Uncertainty extremely high with this forecast, but things have the potential to get quite interesting next week. Stay tuned!”

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Dry Lightning Possibility & Very High Fire Danger Thursday & Friday?

Per MoCo NOAA:

As the upper ridge edges eastward later in the week, increased
low and mid-level moisture will enhance the afternoon thunderstorm
possibility across mainly the eastern and southern portions of
California through the end of the week.

Per John Lindsay of SLO Co:

San Luis Obispo County can expect triple-digit temperatures, “monsoonal moisture” and dry lightning this week, according to PG&E meteorologist John Lindsey.

And that combination could prove to be a recipe for wildfire, he said.

“Whenever you have this much dry fuel, combined with warm temperatures and the possibility of dry lightning, fire danger is going to be for our area very high,” Lindsey said. Fire danger will remain “Very High” Wednesday through Friday, before dropping down to “High” through Saturday and Sunday.

El Niño Predictions

The El Nino watch continues this month, with ENSO-neutral favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to about 65% during fall, and to about 70% during winter 2018-19.  El Niño prediction

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