6:18 pm – *IMPORTANT* – a rock/mudslide is being reported just south of Grimes on Highway One. UPDATE: at 10 pm, it was no longer being reported by CHP, but that does not necessarily mean it has been cleared. That area should be considered dangerous.

4:00 pm – and finally, the sun is back in some places (not here) as evidenced by this, but minutes after he sent this, Ray let me know it was raining again in Paso:

2:30 pm – it has been quiet for a while now, drizzle only, but for a couple hours, there was a steady rain, not deluge, but steady. I got another .4 of an inch. Looks like it is going to stay quiet for a while.

11 am – it is raining AGAIN. I’ve been watching the NEXRAD, and for the last 1/2 hour to an hour, there has been this one very localized spot spinning right over Big Sur. It isn’t moving, except to spin.

For some great storm photos taken yesterday in CA and AZ, go to this link: weather.com

7:30 am – Good morning. It is NOT raining for a change. I forgot to record the rain last night at 4:30, but noted it wasn’t much (.25 or less?) so rain totals look like this:

24-hours – 1.1 inches
storm to-date – 8.6 inches
season to-date – 18.35 inches

Big Sur Valley has had 2 inches in the last 48 hours.

Looks like no currently existing road problems on our highway, NEXRAD is showing scattered showers, and NOAA says: “A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.” But from Ventura Co. south, storm warnings have issued for snow and thunderstorms.

You can tell from the satellite photo, that the bulk of the storm will miss us, but hit SoCal pretty hard today:

Thanks, Dave.

I am hoping for a quiet day. Be safe, everyone, and we have a break coming, last I heard!

9:30 pm – The #1 lane of Highway One, just north of Fremont and south of Casa Verde in Monterey is flooded. SLO Co has declared emergency status for all emergency personnel due to flooding, and the worst is supposed to hit here between midnight and dawn.

6:30 pm – Uh oh. There is a big cell taking a bead on the Santa Cruz Mtns. and they do not need that!

6:00 pm – sounds like the distant rumbling of thunder … but I could be mistaken. Winds up, sporadic rain.

5:00 pm – here is the big picture, sent to me by Dave Allen. Note Dave’s comments under the satellite photo:

We have a HUGE counterclockwise rotation, taking up the entire Pacific. The NWS in Hawaii calls it an “Omega Block”, which means a vertical rotation of air mass. In this case, it is rotating upward, in a mega-cyclonic fashion, creating unstable weather across the vast reaches of this hemisphere. In Hawaii, they are getting heavy showers and t-storms. The unstable stuff in Hawaii then gets rotated over to us for our share of the same. To add to the morass, you can see TWO double-decked cyclones embedded within this big omega block, right over the West Coast. The lower cyclone is centered over central and southern Cali, and the upper one is spinning over the Oregon/Washington coast. And of course, this atmospheric transmission of gears is driving that “Pineapple Express” across the base our state, into Arizona. For now, our concern is the lower cyclone of the double-decker. It is in overdrive from the omega block, and has a lot of momentum. With a quick surf-check a few minutes ago, we could see the black wall on the horizon, and the southerly wind-line 1/2 mile offshore. Batten down the hatches…here it comes!

3:30 pm – The temperature has really dropped this afternoon, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a bit of snow by morning, even if not mentioned by NOAA.

NOAA predicts: “AS OF 3:00 PM PST TUESDAY…RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN VERY SPOTTY MOST OF THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH THE PAST SCANS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING UPWARD AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN HEADS TO OUR AREA. SATELLITE LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROF MOVING IN FROM THE COAST WITH A LOW HEADING TOWARD THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. WITH SOME INSTABILITY…WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL START [in] THE MONTEREY BAY REGION EARLY IN THE MORNING…THIS SHOULD BE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT SO RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD JUST BE BETWEEN 1/3-2/3″ FOR URBAN LOCATIONS WITH 1-2” FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS. ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN…SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION…925 MB SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 KT WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST SO ANY SOUTHERLY EXPOSED PLACES (ESPECIALLY COASTAL RIDGE TOPS) COULD SEEN WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

ON CHRISTMAS DAY (SATURDAY) ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS TIME…THIS APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN STRONGER THAN THE STORM TONIGHT WITH BOTH THE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG WITH WINDS. 925 MB SPEEDS WILL HIT THE 40-50 KT RANGE IN SPOTS WHILE PW VALUES OF NEARLY 1 INCH WILL COMBINE WITH ISENTROPIC FLOW OF 50- 60 KT. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OFF SO BOTH TIMING AND INTENSITY COULD CHANGE…HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN DEPICTED BY MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED (SFOSPSMTR) IN PARTICULAR TO NOTIFY PERSONS PLANNING ON TRAVELING DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WOULD DEFINITELY APPRECIATE IF THE LOCAL MEDIA WOULD ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS TO HELP PEOPLE WITH THEIR TRAVEL PLANS.:

1 pm – Water Vapor Satellite Map. Thanks, Dave.

The NEXRAD is showing only very scattered showers at the moment, no big bands. But those scattered showers are over my mountain.

10 am – Happy Solstice! Days will start lengthening again, and a new year is born. I am a wee bit behind this morning, due to difficulties getting the gennie started. I’ll catch up with my reports in no time.

WINTER BEGINS AT 3:38 PM PST TUESDAY…DECEMBER 21.

CHP reports no problems on Highway One at this hour, but more rain coming, so be careful.

NOAA writes: “AS OF 9:00 AM PST TUESDAY…MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY TODAY IS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA. AHEAD OF THIS… PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A POOL OF NEGATIVE LIFTED VALUES WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TODAY ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. CURRENT LIGHTNING DETECTION IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE STRIKES NEAR AND IN OUR NORTHERN WATERS SO WILL BE KEEPING A VERY CLOSE EYE ON CELLS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROF MOVES TO THE COAST. MODEL TIMING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO TWO (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY) QUIET DAYS.

8:30 pm – I wish you all a Happy Winter Solstice – the shortest day of the year. For me, this is the celebration of the new year, as the light is returning, and I am a creature of the light. It lifts my soul and makes my spirit fly, and I enjoy welcoming its return. To experience the lunar eclipse tonight would be a joy, but for most of us in California it is not to be. If you happen to see it, think of us, and if you do happen to get a shot of it, could you send it along so we can enjoy it vicariously? Good night, dear readers. I am taking the rest of the night off. Oh, one more note before I go off duty – Highway One between Carmel and Nacemiento-Fergusson Rd. is in great shape, as of an hour ago.

Just before sunset – a tad of brightness in a world that has been gray and damp for almost four days now. Looking forward to clear weather for Thursday and Friday.

4:00 pm – nice and quiet. County Rd. crews worked on N-F Rd today and it is clear, HOWEVER, the bridge on FHL is closed as is the river crossing, so don’t send anyone that way who gets stranded.

2:30 pm – Radio Point is no longer listed as a problem on the CHP website. I noted that CT had a loader there and was working on getting it cleared, and that seems to have happened. This area (as well as many others) could give way again after dark, when CT no longer available, so use care.

1:00 pm – *IMPORTANT NOTICE* Rock/mud slide at Radio Point on the South Coast. No further details.

8:30 am – Rain Totals:
Overnight: .75 inches
24-hours: 3.75 inches
Storm: 7.25 inches
Season to-date: 17.00 inches

Big Sur reports 6.5 inches since the beginning of the storm on Friday. Debbie also reports the power is out in Big Sur Valley.

NOAA report: “BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE TO MONITOR SMALL CREEKS IN CASE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP…. LOOK FOR MORE RAIN TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE COAST. CNRFC NUMBERS SHOW UP TO 1.5″ FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GENERALLY UNDER 1/2″ FOR URBAN SPOTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION…STEADY RAIN AND A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.”

From NASA:

Go to this link for additional information: NASA
Besides the above, one will learn that the last total lunar eclipse to fall on the winter solstice was in 1638.

At this time, 4 am, the rain continues – for the fourth day – and I think our chances of viewing this incredible sight in Big Sur tonight/tomorrow morning are slim, maybe other viewers elsewhere will have that opportunity. I’ll continue with Storm Watch later this morning.

10:00 pm – I am going to end today’s storm watch with a note that I’ve been scouring the reports, predictions, and guesses about the next couple days, it is hard to determine how much of the storm is going to hit us. Doesn’t look like tomorrow should be too bad, scattered showers are predicted, but Tuesday could bring periods of heavy rain. For right now, it is quiet, for a change. So tonight, I have two more Christmas Trees to share.

And here are some really outstanding photos taken at Willow Creek this afternoon by Jeff Parrish. Thanks, Jeff! Wow, is it flowing!

5:20 pm CHP is reporting mud/rock/debris slide on Highway One at Harmony Valley Rd. (just south of Cambria) No details available. Highway One at Ocean Ave. is reporting unknown traffic hazard. Also read the Nasty-Fergy Rd report below. I’m not the only one who is getting cut off from the world! Didn’t we do this in early 1998, I think it was?

4:30 pm – Rain totals
Today, last 8 hours: .75 inches
24-hour total: 3.0
Storm total: 5.75
Season to-date: 16.25
Your results may vary

Report from local resident that Nasty-Fergy is closed on the East side at the river in Liggett where a tree fell and damaged the bridge. Reports are that this will remain closed until approximately January 21st. The river crossing is closed due to high water. On the west side of NF Rd., I have one report that Lion’s Creek was pretty muddy this morning, and will probably be closed tonight.

2 pm – In other weather-related news, Oceano in SLO Co. near the airport is being evacuated due to flooding.

That was taken at about 1:30 am this morning. Looks like the lights of Gorda in the distance. Thanks, Michael! Oh, and I understand Michael got a flat tire from this. Highway One after dark during storms like this is dangerous. Sometimes, locals like Michael have to get home, but anyone who doesn’t HAVE to be on the road after dark, shouldn’t be!

This was taken today, around noon. Thank you Jefé!

1:00 pm – From a fellow weather watcher in Paso Robles: “just heard on NOAA radio that the storm coming in mon-wed is suppose to have heavier rains and winds than what we’re getting this weekend….” Oh, sounds like fun, doesn’t it?

12:30 For SLO Co. – Weather radio has issued a a flash flood warning with a possibility of debris flows in creeks, streams, and rivers also a warning for flooding in low lying areas …..they’re saying heavy rains due in this afternoon…the flash flood warning is in place till 5 p.m. Predictions are for up to 5-7 inches in the Coastal Mtns of SLO Co. BTW, checking CHP for SLO Co. there are too many closures due to weather to even list here. So, for all my friends in SLO Co. BE CAREFUL. STAY OFF THE STREETS IF YOU CAN!

Also, be aware there is a mud/rock/debris flow on NB 101 in Hollister, just north of Cole Rd. It is blocking at least one lane. CT is working on it.

Highway One experiencing flooding in parts of SLO Co. and Marin Co. Here is what Cal-Trans says:

[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA] IS CLOSED 2.3 MI NORTH OF THE SANTA BARBARA/SAN LUIS OBISPO CO LINE – DUE TO FLOODING – A DETOUR IS AVAILABLE

IS CLOSED 0.7 MI SOUTH OF GROVER BEACH (SAN LUIS OBISPO CO) – DUE TO FLOODING – A DETOUR IS AVAILABLE

IS CLOSED 1.7 MI SOUTH OF PISMO BEACH (SAN LUIS OBISPO CO) – DUE TO FLOODING – A DETOUR IS AVAILABLE

THE SOUTHBOUND CONNECTOR TO NORTHBOUND US 101 (MARIN CO) IS CLOSED – DUE TO FLOODING – MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE

Here is the 11 am satellite photo. Thanks Firefighter Mike! No question this one is barreling right down on the Central California coast. Hang on!

As of 9:30 am this is part of NOAA’s forecast discussion. Looks like we will see a bit of a break Monday into Tuesday morning, with the next storm hitting Tuesday night into Wednesday. Now they are predicting rain on Christmas, a couple days ago, it was to be clear. Oh, well.

“SATL IMAGERY IS INDC A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THERE WERE A NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OFF THE NORTHWEST CA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY…WHICH LOOKS GOOD. EVEN THOUGH THE WEATHER MIGHT BE MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTN AND NIGHT… RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS.”

8:30 am –
overnight – 2.25 inches.
24-hour total – 3 inches
Storm total – 5.75 inches
Season total – 15.5 inches
CHP is not reporting any problems with Highway One in Big Sur, but so many blocked roadways due to trees down or mudslides in the Santa Cruz mtns. I can’t even count. Even Cal-Fire can’t get thru! Frankly, knowing Highway One as I do, I cannot believe it is not an absolute mess.

Waterfalls into Big Sur River:

And here are the satellite photos:

And look at this plume, it goes all the way back to Tahiti!

Thanks, Dave for sending me these!

At 4 am this morning, this info from NOAA: “IR AND SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGES ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND 130W WHICH IS HEADED TOWARDS MONTEREY AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES. MODELS SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD IMPACT THE COASTLINE BETWEEN 1200 AND 1500Z (4 – 7 am, PST) WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THESE TWO FEATURES PASS OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY EXPECT MODERATE RAIN THAT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS MODERATE RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE DEBRIS FLOWS. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY SO PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS CHANNEL FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SITUATION.”

This is the rain forecasted to be received from 4 am today until 4 am tomorrow:

9:30 and here’s the satellite photo, thanks to Dave Allen. BTW, there are periods of heavy rain in Big Sur Valley, as well as down here on the South Coast, but friends in town report little going on. The plume of this storm is really aimed right at Big Sur.

And from my SLO meteorologist, a great explanation about the way topography and rainfall interact. “topography plays an important role in our various rainfall anomalies and today’s rain certainly proves it. The coastal mountains force relatively warm, moisture-laden southerly winds blowing horizontally from the Pacific Ocean to turn vertical or upward.

Like squeezing a wet sponge, moisture from this air mass was released in the form of persistent rain on the ocean side of the Santa Lucia mountains. This is also called orographic enhancement or uplift. Areas near or just past the summit receive the greatest amount of rain. On the leeward (downwind) side of the Santa Lucias, the air was drier after losing much of its moisture on the upwind side of the mountain range.” Thanks, John!

8:10 pm – a “pretty big rock slide” has been reported in the area of Highway One and Big Sur station, per CHP. Any one up there with additional information, please send it along.

4:30 pm – the dark is settling in. I dumped my rain gauge and recorded the results given below. I have been keeping NEXRAD open all afternoon, and it is interesting to watch the storm come through.
Since 8:30 am – .75 inches
24-hour total – 2.25 inches
Since yesterday am – 3.5 inches
Total for the season – 13.25 inches.

2:30 pm – the storm is taking direct aim on Big Sur, as if we were the pins in a bowling alley – serving up a strike.

The heck with waiting until 5 o’clock. I’m cracking open the Merlot now!

And here is what NOAA has to say about all this: AS OF 2:30 PM PST SATURDAY…RAINFALL IS STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS ECHOS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. ALSO… AN AREA OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY AND HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE BIG SUR COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES APPROACHES THE AREA. RAINFALL ESTIMATES THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY GIVE MOST URBAN AREAS FROM 1/2 TO ONE INCH…WITH THE HIGHER HILLS OF SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTY SLATED TO RECEIVE 1.5 – 2.5 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-3 INCHES IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING…HOWEVER…SINCE THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE NEXT IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 4 AM SUNDAY…THE BULK OF THESE NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL EARLY IN THAT PERIOD AND BE CONFINED TO THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.

Naturally. Stay tuned!

2:00 pm – after a nice, quiet lull, and soft drizzle all day, the front is beginning to come on through with increased winds and rain. You can see it here:

Moments after I captured the above image, a new cell developed almost due west of me. West, but about midway between me and Big Sur Valley. Oh, fun!

8:30 am – picked up another inch and a half after dark last night. 2 and 3/4 for this storm so far. It is a gentle mist at this time, here. Checking on road conditions and storm conditions, and looks like the highway is still open.

Huge band of rain crossing over SLO Co at the moment, missing us in Big Sur, thankfully.

My neighbor just called, and Plaskett is closed. Lots of trees down blocking the road and more ready to come down – not to mention the mud. Neighbor and Rock Knocker are going to work on it tomorrow. Personally, I think they should wait a day.

As of 4 am, NOAA predicts this for today and tomorrow: FIRST SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE WITH IR IMAGERY INDC COOLING CLOUD TOPS WEST OF THE MONTEREY/SAN LUIS COUNTY COASTS. THEREFORE…EXPECT RAIN…MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS IN THIS AREA. LIGHTER RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE DISTRICT.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TO THE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN…MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN.

9:15 pm – NB 101 flooding BTWN CHUALAR RD AND ESPERANZA in the slow lane.

7 pm thru 7:45 pm – large boulder in the roadway, north of Lucia. Also, mud slides have started in the Santa Cruz Mtns. One is reported on Felton Empire and changed from Empire Grade Rds. to Crazy Acre Ln.

Also, the Chalk Peak and Mining Ridge automatic gauges are reporting over 2 and 1/2 inches each. I think that is in error. Unless my rain gauge has a hole (not likely) I’m over an inch below that, but practically next door to both, and higher than Mining Ridge, which has been quite inaccurate in past events. I wouldn’t rely on those automatic gauges.

NOAA’s water vapor satellite photo. Thanks for the link, Dave!

As of 5 pm, the rain total for today’s storm was 1.25, bringing the season total up to 11 inches.

The storm is creating internet problems for me, so, for example, the following took almost 2 hours to post.

2:45 pm – I am up to an inch, now. Here is the current NEXRAD:

10:45 am – Last night or early this morning the rain began up here. I have received almost 1/2 inch thus far this morning, and it is raining, but not heavy. Winds are up, but not as strong as they could be. Will provide a daily and season summary this evening around dark. In looking at the rain prediction charts, NOAA is predicting around 1.35 for today, 2.85 for Saturday, and 1.5 for Sunday, for a 3 day total of 5.70 inches. Oh, my!

AS OF 9:22 AM PST FRIDAY…MINING RIDGE HAS RECEIVED 0.55 INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. AMSU SATELLITE TPW INDICATES THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF MOISTURE MEASURING 1.62 INCHES IS HEADING TOWARDS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. CURRENTLY THIS PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOCATED AROUND 140 DEGREES WEST AND 32 DEGREES NORTH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AROUND 0600Z THIS EVENING. ITS FOCUS APPEARS TO BE MONTEREY COUNTY SHIFTING SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT SUCH AS BEN LOMOND IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE 2.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CHEWS RIDGE IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 24 RAIN TOTALS AROUND 1.7 INCHES.”

I’ll be updating this post throughout the day as is necessary
the 700

Starting tomorrow, I’ll be covering the storms that are to blanket California, so here are a few Christmas Trees for your enjoyment.

More to come later today …

Sometime during Storm Watch, Xmas 2010, I will post a photo or two of my own tree. Be safe. Pay attention, and ejoy the upcoming storms!

Oh, boy … look at this morning’s discussion from NOAA out of Monterey. I’ve highlighted a few things, and pared it down a bit, but this storm system is still shaping up as expected.

“THINGS SHOULD START TO GET MORE INTERESTING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A NARROW PLUME OF 1.5 TPW TAKES AIM AT THE BAY AREA. CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST …
SATURDAY WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL HILLS …

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE ACTION SOMETIME SATURDAY BUT THE MAIN HOSE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HILLS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE FOR NEXT WEEKS SYSTEMS…WHICH WOULD BE GOOD NEWS…SO AS TO NOT FOCUS ALL OF THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER A SMALL AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD 5-10 INCH RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE ACROSS OUR HILLS WITH GENEROUS 2-5 INCH TOTALS FOR THE VALLEYS. MANY OF THESE NUMBERS MAY STILL BE UNDERSTATED AND NO DOUBT SOME OF OUR USUAL WET SPOTS (VENADO/BEN LOMOND AND VARIOUS SPOTS IN THE SANTA LUCIAS) COULD SEE SOME 7 DAY RAIN TOTALS BEYOND 15 INCHES. NEEDLESS TO SAY HYDRO ISSUES WILL BE FRONT AND CENTER WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING BECOMING LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS IS TO BE EXPECTED AS WELL BUT OF COURSE CURRENT RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW HEADING INTO THIS EVENT.”

My SLO Co. meteorologist has been much more conservative all week, until today. He said:
“The first system will produce increasing clouds and southerly winds early Friday leading to rain and strong to gale force (25 and 38 mph) southeasterly winds with guest reaching 45 mph on Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. The heaviest rain will occur on Saturday. The winds will decrease to fresh to strong (19 and 31 mph) levels and shift out of the southwest on Saturday.

The rain and southerly winds will temporarily taper off later on Sunday into Monday. Rainfall amounts over the weekend should range between 0.75 and 1.5 inches in the North County, 1 and 3 inches in the coastal valleys of San Luis Obispo county with higher amounts in the coastal mountains.

The next low pressure system will produce increasing southerly winds and moderate to heavy rain Monday evening into Wednesday morning. Rain will likely be very heavy on Tuesday, especially over the higher terrain. At this time, the main focus for the precipitation will likely be north of Big Sur where 3 to 5 inches of rain may fall over a two day period leading to possible hydrological problems. However, the last two model runs have put more of the moisture over the Central Coast.

The last in this series of storms is forecast to produce rain and southerly winds over the Central Coast next Thursday into Friday. Fair weather should return on Christmas.”

It would seem my MacBook is on strike, today. It won’t turn on. Unfortunately, that is where I downloaded the Christmas Trees to post today. Why it is on strike is a good question. It could be the 4 times I’ve dropped it, over the last year, or it could be a cord that needs to be replaced, or it could be ?? In any event, I’m hoping it will somehow heal itself, and we can once again be partners. Until then, I am back on my iBook G4, kept around for back-up.

Thanks for sending this, Dave Allen!

From NOAA this afternoon (they were talking Friday through middle of next week):

“WHEREAS ALL AREAS WILL RECEIVE ALOT OF RAIN…IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A 75-100 MILE WIDE AREA THAT WILL RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS “HOSE” HAS BEEN CHANGING WITH EACH MODEL RUN…SO IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO TELL DEFINITIVELY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE.”

The weather guys said this, this morning: DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE. ENJOY THE DRY WEATHER BECAUSE THE DISTRICT WILL BE IN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SYSTEMS TAPPING INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS STARTING ON FRIDAY…AND CONTINUING THOUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.”

They also admit: “ITS ONLY TUESDAY SO WILL TRY TO KEEP THE HYPE METER IN CHECK…AS ITS OFTEN HARD TO LIVE UP TO EXPECTATIONS ONCE THE BALL GETS ROLLING….NONETHELESS POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY REAL TO SEE 5-10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK…ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS PER CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION FROM THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND THESE NUMBERS COULD BE UNDERSTATED. NO DOUBT WE`LL SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE LARGE STEM RIVERS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING SEEMS LIKELY AS WELL WITH WIND DAMAGE AND ASSOCIATED POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES ALL BEING LIKELY OUTCOMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN FRESHENED UP.”

So, batten down the hatches, stock up on supplies, and get ready, boys and girls. We could be in for a wild ride!