This is the late afternoon report from NOAA today. “THE ECMWF STALLS THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING…AND KEEPS THE RAIN GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT…WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE INCREASING THE RAIN INTENSITY ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT 10 DAYS NEEDS TO BEAR WATCHING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN…ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES (THE GFS IS VERY WET TOO)”

Before I post more Xmas trees this evening or tomorrow (and I’ve got quite a few), I must take a moment to caution everyone to be paying attention to the upcoming storm system. It is not scheduled to hit until Friday, and we know how things can change in five days, but I’ve gotten 3 warnings – 2 from meteorologists – about the storm scheduled to hit Friday, possibly lasting until next Wednesday. An arctic storm is scheduled to meet up with a sub-tropical storm, and when it does, all hell might break loose. Large amounts of rainfall, accompanied by heavy winds are possible. So, it behooves us all to be paying attention this week. I will post more either Wednesday or Thursday, as this storm approaches. There may be sprinkles/light rain showers passing over the Central Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

This is what NOAA has to say:

THE NEXT IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM PROGGED FOR SUNDAY. THE SUNDAY SYSTEM COULD SPREAD UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN…POSSIBLY HIGHEST ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST…FROM LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

And this is the forecast for the SLO area:
A 1,003 millibar surface low pressure system is forecast to develop about 200 miles west San Luis Obispo tonight. This surface low is expected to move towards our area on Saturday and will produce fresh to strong (19 and 31 mph) southeasterly winds along the coastline on Saturday along with widely scattered sprinkles and rain showers.

The associated cold front is forecast to pass the Central Coast Sunday evening with strong to gale force (25 and 38 mph southeasterly winds along the coastline and moderate rain. Rain will turn to showers late Sunday night, ending by Monday morning.

Almost midnight – and my gauge reads 34.5. Must be wrong, as everything is frozen over!

5:00 pm – it is down to 38.9 degrees F, and total rain of just over 1/2 an inch.

Also, there has been a traffic accident on Mill Creek Bridge and Highway One with an ambulance responding. The roadway was opened back up when Cambria towing pulled the vehicle off the road at 6:17 pm.

2:30 pm – The rain began this morning, on this mountain top around 10 am. Since then, I have had almost 1/2 an inch, and it is coming down quite significantly at the moment. It is not as cold as it has been. It is a balmy 42.8 degrees F. So far, no major problems on Highway One in Big Sur have been reported. (watch, that will have jinxed it!) I still advise, as I always do, to use caution, because there will ALWAYS be rocks on the road in weather like this, and while they might not block the road, they are really good at making tires go flat. Also, I advise that you complete your travel and get off the highway before dark, as there is no Cal-Trans patrols on the highway – particularly down here on the South Coast – after dark due to safety issues. If it is not safe for them, it is not safe for the motoring public. Additionally, there is a possibility of thunder storms this evening.

BE AWARE AND USE CARE!

Just in case you are in Bermuda, or some other tropical isle (can I join you?), and haven’t heard:

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
206 PM PST WED NOV 24 2010

…FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING…AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING…A RECORD COLD AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST REGION. AREAS OF FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD COLD LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

1:45 pm – want to get an idea of the range of temperatures right now, here in Big Sur? Here you go. I looked them up for you.
Chew’s Ridge – 28 degrees F
Kate’s place – 37 degrees F
Nepenthe – 49 degrees F

1 pm – it has yet to get out of the 30’s and at this rate, probably won’t. Still ice on the deck, as this deck is on the north. South is thawed, and gennie started after leaving it in the sun for an hour. Getting ready to deal with another very cold evening, then hopefully, it will start to warm up.

Ice still on the deck, the comforter on the railing enjoying the rain bath, is frozen solid, and frost in all the shady spots. Hoping the sun will warm the gennie, as it is on strike until it heats up a bit.

Today’s NOAA report: “SO FAR WE`VE TIED OR BROKEN 3 RECORD LOWS. … BUT WE TIED THE RECORD OF 41 IN THE CITY GOING BACK TO 1906. 34 AT OAKLAND AIRPORT TIED THE RECORD AND 34 AT MONTEREY CLIMATE STATION BROKE THE RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE.

FREEZE WARNINGS GO BACK INTO EFFECT TONIGHT WITH EXPECTATION FOR EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.”

Spoke to my mother in Redondo Beach and this cold front is affecting them, as well. Stay warm, and hope I can get the gennie started soon!

7:30 pm – the water on the deck is now frozen, and covered with ice. Just about lost it when I stepped outside.

5:00 pm – the temperature is dropping rapidly, it has dropped 5 degrees to 37 just in the last hour and a half. I can literally watch the numbers roll down. At 5:00 pm it was 37.8, and now at 6 pm it is 35.8, er correction 35.5. Thank goodness I have spare propane for both heating systems. I was a Curved Bar Girl Scout, don’t you know!

3:30 pm – first rock/mud slide of the storm hits in Santa Cruz on Highway One and Laguna Rd. NB lane affect. No additional info. Temperature has dropped to 42, again. Be careful out there, and stay warm!

At 10:30 am, it is 44 degrees – a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. I received .5 inches last night and this morning, bringing the season total to 7.9 inches. I found my older calendars (but now have misplaced the last 5 years – really, I am hopeless) and so will be able to do a 16 year comparison for everyone, soon. Scattered showers have continued all morning, thus far. Also, for those of you, like me, who count on the radar soundings, the radar has been out since 7 pm Saturday night, due to the storms in the Santa Cruz mountains.

Unseasonably cold nights will continue through Thursday night/Friday morning – all nights well below freezing in many areas. NOAA had this to say:

“ANALOGOUS COLD SYNOPTIC EVENT FROM NOV 29, 1975 WAS LOOKED AT FOR COMPARATIVE PURPOSES WHICH HAD LOWS OF 29 FOR SANTA CRUZ…36 FOR OAKLAND AND 28 FOR NAPA. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR PASO ROBLES (WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY FOR COLD SPOTS IN MONTEREY COUNTY) IS 18 FOR THURSDAY MORNING. 1975 WAS ONE OF THE STRONGEST LA NINA YEARS AS WELL?” (FWIW, I often use the temps in Paso Robles to predict what I will receive here, as I concur with NOAA on this point.)

NOAA also issued a warning that for those vulnerable among us, these continuously freezing nights are life-threatening. Illegal campfires, like the possible one seen last night, are more likely under these conditions. Our homeless are very vulnerable this week.

The CHP is not reporting any problems on Highway One, but I would suggest that those of you who must drive it use extra caution, as I am sure there are rocks everywhere.

This is this afternoon’s NOAA forecast (more of the same, and for longer than originally anticipated.)”SO AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FEET LATER TUESDAY…POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAYS. NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS PREDICTING FREEZING MIN TEMPERATURES RIGHT TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BY THURSDAY MORNING.” Winter weather advisory issued. Oh, joy!

At noon today, the outside temperature here is 42 degrees. Another .20 inches brings the season total to 7.4″. I shiver to think what it was at 6 am! Slight showers have been present this morning, and could easily be this afternoon, as well. Yet another cold front is moving in this evening into tomorrow, and snow is expected in the Sierras down to 2,000 ft.

Per one forecaster: “Today’s upper-level charts indicate a southward flowing jet stream, stretching off the coast of Alaska all the way south to Baja California. This condition will allow very cold air to filter into the Central Coast on Wednesday. Morning low temperatrues may reach the 20s in the [Santa Lucia Range] by Thanksgiving Day morning.”

Oh, brrrr …. !

On another note: Audubon California is holding a contest for Bird of the Year and the California Condor is nominated. Cast your vote at the Audubon site here.

9:30 am – a tree is down, blocking both the north and south bound lanes near River Inn. And, yes, there is snow on Cone Peak. The clouds parted long enough for me to get a shot.

9:00 am – more rain. It is expected to rain on and off all day. Correction – IT IS SNOWING!!

I am very grateful for the merino wool cap, gloves, and sweater I picked up in NZ. Wish I’d gotten the socks, too!

8:00 am – The wind is still racing across the landscape, and there is a mixture of blue skies and serious clouds, and the temperature is 41 degrees – inside! Last night, I received .85 inches, for a season total of 7.20. No snow, by the way, and I even woke at 3 am to check. Can’t see Cone Peak due to the clouds to see if it got any.

Given the high winds (leading to downed trees), and amount of rain over the last two days (almost 3 and 1/2 inches), I am certain that Plaskett is impassable today. Given the conditions, I don’t feel comfortable trying to make the Celebration of Life for Seanan Moses today. I hope you all understand and know I am there in spirit.

The hard closure of Highway 9 in Santa Cruz at Henry Cowell SP due to a downed tree remained in effect overnight. It should reopen sometime this morning.

FOR MY SANTA CRUZ NEIGHBORS – WIRES DOWN EVERY WHERE. TREE BLOCKING HIGHWAY 9 AT HENRY COWELL STATE PARK, BOTH LANES. FELL ON VEHICLE AND TRYING TO EXTRACT DRIVER. HARD CLOSURE BEING ISSUED FOR HIGHWAY 9.

In other areas, flooding, accidents, major disruptions in Santa Cruz, Hollister areas, and Northern Monterey County. Be very careful!

8:25 pm – whoa, it just hit with a vengeance! Major wind, sleet, hail, rain! Second storm has definitely hit. Will check in probably only one more time tonight. Enjoy, but be safe, and stay off Highway One if at all possible tonight.

6:45 pm – I’m not an expert, but it feels as if the front has arrived. The wind has picked up, the temperature has dropped, and I would not be surprised to see snow before I go to bed.

5:30 pm – large rock in the road near River Inn & a disabled vehicle. I’m guessing they are connected. 😉 CHP is on the way. Watch out for rocks, particularly here on the South Coast. Cal-Trans is not out at night clearing. Still no rain or snow, but I’ll be checking until I turn out the lights for bed.

Noon – clouds suddenly forming rapidly. (is that redundant?) They seem to be “forming” as opposed to blowing in from the north or the west. I take it back. I went outside and watched the cloud movement, and they do appear to be moving in from the northwest.

Time to make one last round to dump the gauge, check to make sure everything is tight and covered. Has been quite crisp all day, so far. Heat required in doors.

8:00 am – Current conditions here are clear and crisp. A condensation cloud is trying to form here on the mtn. top, and I’m sure it will be successful, eventually. There is *no* snow visible on Cone Peak or elsewhere.

Rain total is 2.6 inches, for a season total of 6.35 inches. Temperature is 44 degrees. There are low clouds out on the horizon, but otherwise, I don’t see today’s predicted storm forming anywhere,but will, of course, be watching for it

NOAA prediction for today and tomorrow: “RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.25-0.75 FOR MOST LOCATIONS…BUT THE HILLS COULD SEE 0.75-2.0 INCHES. IN ADDITION..SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000-3500 FEET LATER TODAY. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST BAY HILLS WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. ATTM THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE SANTA LUCIAS WITH 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.”

4 pm – .25 inches of rain, thus far, and currently 40 degrees. Getting into the silk long johns tonight. Also, NOAA issued this advisory today: ” SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP THROUGH THE EVENT AND COULD BE DOWN TO 2500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THE PEAKS OVER 3000 FEET WILL LIKELY RECEIVE SOME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DURING THE WEEKEND MAKING TRAVEL POTENTIALLY DIFFICULT.” Well, I am stocked – dog food, wine, books, and movies, oh, and food – and hunkered down, so won’t be trying to get out, absent an emergency.

Woke to drizzle this morning, but less than .10, so not yet counting. From NOAA yesterday:
“WITH SNOW LEVELS FORECAST TO BE UNDER 3000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT…WINDY CONDITIONS…AND ENOUGH QPF (OVER 1″ FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH UP TO 1/2″ FOR CITIES) TO BRING MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW…TRAVEL COULD BECOME VERY TRICKY.”
Today’s predictions:
“ALONG WITH THE RAIN…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THE COLD AIR WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 2500-3000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF OVER AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE GREATEST SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED IN THE SANTA LUCIAS WITH 24 HOUR SNOW FALL OF AROUND 4.0 INCHES EXPECTED SATURDAY AND AN ADDITIONAL 3.0 INCHES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.”

NOAA issued no advisories, as it believes the warm temperatures of the ground will keep the accumulations down, but personally, I am preparing to be snowed in by Sunday. Photos a definite possibility, as well as reports, of course.

BTW, it is quite cold this morning, and if expected to be colder, this could get very interesting! Never had snow this early, and rarely get that much! Stay tuned!