… is loosely woven, but has the tensile strength of steel. We are a community that is far-reaching, and yet, very close. We are the town of 500 from 1/2 a century ago where your parents grew up. We are who you want to be and can be, wherever you live.

Tonight, I am just getting home from the fundraiser for one of our own. It was some of the best of what Big Sur is … and what the human species is – caring, loving, giving, sharing. It is what we aspire to, and it was inspired by a beautiful young woman.

Rachael Short, you would be proud and humbled by all those who came out tonight to support your recovery. Blessings to you, your family, your friends, and your larger Big Sur family who deeply care.

Tomorrow, I will give a more objective report with photos of the great gift the River Inn gave Rachael and all of us. Namasté.

Per NOAA on Sunday: “BY THURSDAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY AND JUST INDUCE FURTHER COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND ZERO. SHOWER CHANCES ENTER INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SPOKES OF ENERGY THAT WILL BE HARD TO TIME WILL KEEP A COOL AND SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE BAY AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER WELL BELOW 4000 FEET BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.”

And NOAA on Monday: “OVERALL 1/4 TO 3/4 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND TIME-FRAME. LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS…PROBABLY SETTLING SOMEWHERE IN THE 3500-4000 FEET RANGE NORTH TO SOUTH.”

A SLO forecaster had this to say on Monday: “This second cold front is expected [to] be cool with snow levels in the Sierra getting as low as 2,500 feet north and 4,000 feet south. Snow totals in the Sierra may add up to a few feet by Monday night.”

Interesting. Let’s see what this one does as it gets closer.

La Niña is coming this winter, but authorities aren’t expecting this to be a year of catastrophic flooding. At the same time, they told attendees at a winter storm briefing on Wednesday in Salinas, residents should be prepared for the worst. The briefing was sponsored by the Monterey County Office of Emergency Services.

The National Weather Service is forecasting a cold winter, with strong rains in December, gradually drying out in January and February.

A rare weather pattern known as a “strong La Niña” will dominate the winter’s weather, said NOAA representative Tom Evans. In previous years, strong La Niñas have coincided with historic flooding, notably in 1955 when downtown Santa Cruz was engulfed as the San Lorenzo river overflowed.

Last Thursday, the National Oceanographic Atmospheric Administration came out with its latest El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation Advisory, predicting that the current La Niña will peak in the strong category and will persist until next spring.

Since 1950, there have been 19 years with La Niña conditions. In those years, rainfall in San Francisco has averaged 90 percent of normal, and in Los Angeles 80 percent of normal. During the most recent La Niña event, in 2007-08, rainfall was 79 percent of normal in San Francisco.

But it’s not a certainty that California lawns will be brown come next spring. That’s because in some La Niña years, rainfall has been more plentiful than normal. In one such year, 1999, San Francisco rainfall hit 115 percent of normal.

Nights up here have been in the 30’s for the last 3. And per one forecaster, “A few of this morning’s models are suggestion an intense storm moving into the Pacific Northwest next week with a weakening associated cold front passing over the Central Coast next Friday and Saturday with rain showers.”

3:30 pm – wow, that sounded like distant thunder! Rain is here. Definitely picking up.

2:45 pm – and here is the current Nexrad. Looks like it is here:

2:30 pm – still no “real” rain, but steady drizzle all day. Big Sur Valley is reporting the same, although says it has kicked up a notch, and might now be called “real” rain, but still not particularly heavy.

10:45 am – sprinkles began here. Looking forward to the rain!

10:30 am – here is the latest Nexrad:

9:45 am, South Coast Mountain time.
NOAA had this to say: “DISCUSSION…AS OF 8:45 AM PST SUNDAY…A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH RAIN NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. QPF ESTIMATES GIVE HIGHEST AMOUNTS…UP TO 2 INCHES…TO ALL THE COASTAL RANGES…AND UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE.”

As of 9:30 am, sprinkles have entered Big Sur Village, but not yet here. I’ll be tracking this during the day, but this evening, I have some photos to upload, if the internet cooperates.

The report below is for SLO Co, but I would imagine it will affect our beaches as well.

This morning’s 6- to 8-foot northwesterly (290-degree deep-water)
swell will quickly build to 13- to 15-feet (with a 19- and
21-second period) by this afternoon.

This swell should peak this evening into Wednesday morning
at 14- to 16-feet (with an 18- to 21-second period).

Note: This very long-period and powerful swell has the
potential to produce strong rip currents, heavy surge
and areas of erosion along the coastline.

If you’re venturing down to the coastline, please be
extremely cautious. Never turn your back on the ocean
and remember that individual sets of the waves can be
twice as high as what is being reported by the buoys.

This was the sunset Saturday night, after the storm washed the sky, land, and sea. The clouds and condensation hung around after the storm left, and blessed me with a cotton candy sky.

While the Nexrad is showing absolutely nothing. I am having a bit of a pour up here. Showers were supposed to quit by this morning, but my mountain didn’t get the news.

An hour later (2 pm) I now have bright blue skies, with gorgeous clouds and sunshine! I’m loving all the changes!