Category: 2010-2011 Weather Watch

Watching a Storm come in

9:03 pm – there it is. The rain finally came on shore. I can’t hear the thunder, but I have a dog that can. I can always tell, as she is afraid of thunder and guns, and hides and shakes. It is apparently far off, as she is not shaking hard, but she hears it.

This is what NOAA said 15 mins. ago –

“AS OF 8:45 PM PDT FRIDAY…THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS FINALLY BEING KICKED EAST BY A TROUGH DROPPING TO THE SE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EAST…THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND THAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY…AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE…FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO COME ASHORE. RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAS BEEN LIGHT SO FAR…BUT EXPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE COAST…ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST. LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. AND…SOME OF THE RAIN-SHADOWED VALLEYS OF THE SF BAY AREA MAY NOT PICK UP ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE OF MONTEREY COUNTY OVERNIGHT…PARTICULARLY IF SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW OUT NEAR 35N/135W SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO…A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST.”

One of the joys about living on top of a mountain, is watching a storm come in. I cannot always do it. Sometimes I am in the middle of a cloud and can see little. But on sunny days like this, I can track its progress. I will post other photos as the storm approaches, if the weather and time allows.

5:00 pm and all the blue in the sky is gone. The dogs and I are are settling in for a nice fall storm, so until the morning storm report, I bid you a pleasant evening. But before I go, let me leave you with the current Nexrad. Red is developing in the radar, directly off the Big Sur Coast. I call this one, “uh, oh.”

uh oh ...

Here is a photo from 4 pm (here it comes!)

And here is the matching Nexrad:

Here is the one for almost noon:

Watching a storm come in 10/29/10

And here is the nexrad, from about 1:30. The animation looks like it is tracking more to the north than east towards Big Sur, and watching the clouds through my glass door, I can see them moving north, out over the ocean.

Weekend Forecast

The rain will slowly move south but very little to the east
tonight, reaching San Francisco by about midnight. There
is a slight chance for a light shower during tonight’s World
Series game but it is expected the game will be dry for the
most part.

The cold front will accelerate southward on Friday, with rain
spreading southeastward through the day and reaching San Luis
Obispo by Friday evening (between 5 and 9 p.m.) Rain will
continue through Saturday morning.

Rainfall amounts should range between 0.50 and 1.00 inches
along the beaches and coastal valleys and 1.5 and 2.5 inches
in the mountains between Cambria and Atascadero.

Clearing will occur Saturday afternoon, with partly cloudy skies
continuing through Sunday with temperatures ranging between
the 60’s to low 70’s.

Strong high pressure will rapidly build across California on
Monday and Tuesday, bringing fair skies and temperatures in
the 70’s with a chance for a few 80’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Fire Watch to Weather Watch

In anticipation of the storm coming in Friday, I have changed from fire watch mode to storm watch mode, which I do about this time each year. Fire season is effectively over, and we came through unscathed – in fact, most of the state did, also, except for some stubborn fires in Kern Co.

My links on the right have been changed so that those who wish to check weather reports, road reports, rivers, and other items of value during this season can do so easily.

Nextrad for tomorrow:

I like the yellow tulips, but will change them in November to be season appropriate to the northern hemisphere. Start thinking about a winter Big Sur photo you might want to submit for the December 21st header contest.

bigsurkate is back

My time off is over, and I will be back to reporting as usual.

First, Avis Latone, yesterday’s post was magnificent – and those Jade photos are so very beautiful!! Thanks for sharing them with all of us. Because you are such a precious friend who is ALWAYS willing to help me out, I have a wee something for you from Kiwiland. What an adventure! I will share a bit after I catch up with things at home, work, and blog.

Second, in the 2 weeks I have been gone, I received 2.75 inches of rain, for a season total of 3.0 inches. Old-time Big Sur locals all agree that when we get this much rain this early, we will be having a dry winter, which is in line with the La Niña that NOAA is predicting.

There was a rave party (or techno, or whatever) up on Prewitt Ridge on the 16th, and I received a voice mail from the USFS about it. They were headed up to check on it, make sure it complied with requirements, and were taking law enforcement with them to assure compliance.

Lastly, it has been a gloriously sunny day on the mountain, particularly welcomed after a very wet drive down the coast (lots of pebbles on the road and one search and rescue yesterday) and a very muddy trip up the mountain.

So, that is my brief report tonight, back to our regularly scheduled programming tomorrow or the next day. I’ll also be changing my links from fire to weather watch shortly, as the rain these past two weeks, and the two days of rain coming later this week, have certainly ended fire season 2010.

Rain this weekend?

It looks as if there is rain in the forecast for this weekend. This is what NOAA had to say: “FOCUSING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF EARLY SEASON RAINFALL TO OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.”

I am really trying to take some time away from my computer, the internet, and my cyber life. I am doing other things, and will be back to our regularly scheduled programming shortly. In the meantime, we are still hoping Avis will be posting some Jade photos she took at the festival. Let’s keep bugging her, shall we?

Jade Festival Weather

5:00 pm – yup, it is here. The first rain of the season. Oh, so nice.

4:15 pm – look at the difference one-half hour can make in the Nexrad.

4:00 pm – in the last 15 mins the band of yellow has pushed its way to just over 1/2 way to the coast from the Salinas Valley. It should be here shortly, boys and girls.

Update, 3:45 pm: Here it comes:

At this point, this is what NOAA says we can expect: “ON THURSDAY THE LOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND RETURNING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.”

Despite the great prediction, dressing in layers is always a good idea this time of year down here on the South Coast. See you all Friday!

In the meantime, scattered showers possible today and tomorrow, thunderstorms possible on Wednesday afternoon, and those of us in the mountains can expect temperatures down into the 30s by Wednesday.

Weather Report, 10/4/10

4:00 pm – drizzle reported in Big Sur Valley a little before noon. I was on my way to Cambria, where it was sunny, but definitely fall. Coming home, I could see the clouds up against the tops of all the mountains, and I watched the fog come in as I made my way north. Here, at home, now, it is 47 degrees, and dripping from the high fog. It is not rain, but it is wet and cold none-the-less. Above this, I know there are scattered clouds.

I woke up to a chilly 57 degrees, a 40 degree drop since Saturday. I was completely socked in by the clouds. Currently, there are both high and low clouds, and the sun peeks through occasionally. I can not see across to Willow Creek top, at the moment. NOAA is saying there is a chance of shattered showers today, but a stronger possibility of rain in the hills of Southern Monterey county on Tuesday and Wednesday. Hmmm…that’s me. Guess I better get ready.