Rain Reports & Road Conditions, 12/15/16

8:30 pm – the highway closed at 8pm, there was a car on its roof at the Big Sur Station, and now we are under a flood warning:

“FLASH FLOOD WARNING – Soberanes & Chimney Burn Scars
This message is for any of the areas inside/alongside/or down-slope of the Soberanes or Chimney Burn Scars. The National Weather Service has issued a FLASH FLOOD WARNING for your area. A WARNING is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. A WARNING is used for conditions posing a threat to life or property.”

6:30 PM – it just got serious. 40 mph, 1/3″ an hour. Total so far today, 1.35″

3:3-0 pm – Many rock/mudslides in   Santa Cruz being reported.

2:30 pm – up to .60″ and it is just getting going.

1 pm – here are the graphs, yesterday’s (again) and today’s which is quite higher.

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Noon:

Rain: I have received .28″ thus far, steady, but light all morning. Also received .25″ yesterday by dark. Nepenthe is up to .34″ thus far. This is what the automated gauges have recorded as of 11 am:

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Roads:  As far as the roads, no big problems being reported, but there are bound to be rocks out on Highway One, so pay attention as you travel, and report what needs reporting.

Flash Flood Watch-Soberanes Burn Area

From the National Weather Service:

Flash Flood Watches, High Wind Watches and high tidal cycles will continue to be the main concerns. The main impacts from the front will occur Thursday afternoon/evening through the per-dawn hours of Friday.
Rock slides have already occurred that closed Highway 1 overnight, further slides are possible. Monterey County Public Works and Office of Emergency Services are monitoring weather and road conditions. Of particular concern are the areas affected by the Soberanes Fire where rain totals could be the highest.

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Upcoming Rain Event(s)

11:00 AM – UPDATE FROM NWS:

“FLASH FLOOD WATCH – Sobreanes and Chimney Burn Scar areas
This message is for any of the areas inside/alongside/or downslope of the Soberanes and Chimney Burn Scar Areas. The National Weather Service has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for your area. The FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect from 12/15/2016 10:00 AM to 12/16/2016 4:00 AM PST. A WATCH is used when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so that those who need to set their plans in motion can do so.”

Rain will return to our region starting on Tuesday and be mostly focused on the North Bay at first. By Thursday a second system with a cold front will produce widespread rainfall that could be heavy at times along with gusty winds.

UPDATED INFORMATION
· This is the first statement for the upcoming systems.
IMPACTS

*Impact (Rain from the first system):
· (Did not include as the bulk of the impact is north of SF)
*Impact (Rain from the second system):
· Widespread rain can be expected starting late Wednesday night and down to the remainder of our region on Thursday as a cold front goes through.
· Rain will likely be moderate to heavy at times as the front approaches. Any locations that have prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain will have the potential for flooding.
· Debris flows are of concern especially around coastal ranges and recent burn scars.
· Rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 2 to 4 inches for coastal ranges with locally more than 6 inches possible. For urban spots generally 3/4″ to 1 3/4″ can be expected. .
o Please see attach graphic (part 2) for potential rainfall amounts. However, please do not focus on exact values.
o Please not that the bulk of the rain may fall during a short period leading to a heightened risk of flooding.
· Driving conditions will likely be poor with ponding on roadways along with low visibility.
· Locations with poor drainage and intersections and on/off ramps prone to flooding will likely have flooding.
*Impact (Wind from the second system):
· South to southeast winds will increase Wednesday evening into Thursday as a cold front approaches our region.
· The strongest winds will be on Thursday with many urban locations likely to see gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
· Higher elevation spots will likely see gusts of 35 to 45 mph with some areas gusting to over 55 mph.
o Please see attach graphic for general wind gusts Thursday afternoon. However, please be aware that peak gusts could be higher.
· Locally strong winds will make for difficult driving conditions.
· The winds could topple trees and power lines especially for locations that are susceptible to winds that funnel in from the south or higher elevation locations.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories:
· Currently none in effect although watches and advisories are likely to be issued as the event gets closer.
· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Moderate to high for rainfall and wind.
LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region..
Weather Summary
Wet weather returns as two systems will bring a return to rainy conditions to our region. The first system will mostly be focused north of San Francisco with moderate amounts of rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday. A bigger concern is with the second system mainly on Thursday that will bring widespread moderate to even heavy rainfall to our region as a cold front goes through. Gusty southerly winds can also be expected with the second system.
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Soberanes Fire still smoldering as of 12/10/16

From Michael Troutman:

The Soberanes Fire is still smoldering!!!!!

This same tree was still burning weeks ago, many weeks after the fire had roared through Williams Canyon.

IT’S STILL SMOKING TODAY….

Incredible.

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Rain Totals, Big Sur

This is just for the last 24 hours, and these figures don’t reflect what has been actually received in other locations, even nearby. For example, Nepenthe recorded 1.5″. I received .75″

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Highway One closes in Big Sur

9 am – Road open

CAL TRANS
NEWS RELEASE

Highway 1 will be open at 9:00 A.M.

Location: SLO/Monterey County – Hwy. 1 between Ragged Point (SLO, Postmile 72.87) to 1.9 miles south of Big Sur (MON, PM 42.2) n

All lanes of Highway 1 were closed du to mud/rock slide at 11 PM on 12/8/16

Please drive safely as rocks will continue to fall off the hillside throughout this rain event.

8:30 am – road expected to be clear by 9 am, although Lucia reports travelers from both directions.

UPDATE: 7;14 AM –
6:52 AM 6 [10] ITS CLOSED BETW MM 42.2 AND RAGGED POINT (42 IS GRIMES CANYON)

UPDATE: AS OF 6:18 AM, THE CHP REQUESTS NOTIFICATION FROM CAL TRANS WHEN THE HIGHWAY IS OPEN AGAIN.

As of a bit before midnight, there is a hard closure on HIghway One at Ragged Point to the south, and Ventana to the north due to a rock and mudslide at Limekiln.

Incident: 00541 Type: CLOSURE of a Road
Location: Sr1 / Limekiln
Loc Desc: BT RAGGED PT AND VENTANA
Lat/Lon: 36.007778 -121.515556
Detail Information
11:32 PM 4 [7] 1039 SLO W/INFO
11:30 PM 3 [6] 1039 ENTAC
11:28 PM 2 [4] PER SCOTT W/CT – HARD CLOSURE AT VENTANA IN BIG SUR and RAGGED POINT
11:26 PM 1 [3] HWY 1 CLOSED
Unit Information
11:30 PM 2 Unit Assigned
11:30 PM 1 Unit At Scene

LPNF Closure modified

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GOLETA, CA, December 8, 2016…Los Padres National Forest officials today reduced the Soberanes Fire closure order to the area that burned during the fire, effectively reopening the southern portion of the Monterey Ranger District to the public. Forest Service law enforcement officers will strictly enforce the closure order, which carries a penalty of $5,000 and/or six months in jail. This order will expire Dec. 4, 2017.

The new Soberanes Fire Closure Area begins at the northwest corner of Section 1, Township 17 South, Range 1 East, Mount Diablo Base and Meridian and continues east following the National Forest boundary to its intersection with Camel Valley Road. The closure then continues south and east along the Forest Boundary to its intersection with private property in Section 31, Township 20 South, Range 5 East, continuing south and east along the Ventana Wilderness Boundary paralleling the western edge of the Arroyo Seco/Indians Road to its intersection with Escondido Campground. The closure then continues west along the Lost Valley Trail to its intersection with the North Coast Trail via the Lost Valley Connector, then north along the North Coast Trail to its intersection with the North Coast Ridge Road. It then continues north and west along the North Coast Ridge Road to its intersection with State Highway 1, then north along State Highway 1 to its intersection with Palo Colorado Road and east back to the starting point, as shown on the attached map.
Closure of the fire area aims to help ensure that members of the public are not injured within the fire perimeter, and allows for the scorched landscape to begin the rehabilitation process.
For more information, visit the Los Padres National Forest website at http://www.fs.usda.gov/lpnf.
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BSVFB Firefighting training

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All,

Attached is a flyer and the scheduled dates for the Fire Fighter 1 class the Fire Brigade will be having starting January 7th 2017.

We would love to have a least one person from each resort or business take the class. They do not have to join the Fire Brigade although that is our goal, to get more Brigade members. By completing this course you could have a person on staff trained on what to do in the unlikely event you experience a fire.

There is no cost for the class. We realize that weekends can be difficult but we have found with past classes that during the winter was the best time to have them.

We would like to have people that hopefully will be in Big Sur for a long time, so we don’t spend all the hours training someone who leaves in a few months if at all possible.

We only offer these classes about every two to three years.

Please let me know if you think you will be able to have someone participate in the class.
Tentative dates for 2017 FF1 class
09:00 to 17:00
January 7 and 8 Saturday and Sunday

January 14 and 15 Saturday and Sunday

January 29 SundaY
February 4 Saturday

February 11 Saturday

February 25 and 26 Saturday and Sunday
March 11 and 12 Saturday and Sunday

March 18 Saturday

March 25 and 26 Saturday and Sunday
April 8 and 9 Saturday and Sunday

April 22 and 23 Saturday and Sunday

April 30 Sunday
May 6 Saturday

May 13 Saturday (Live fire trailer?)

May 20 Saturday
June 1, 3 or 5, wildland school?
Thank you,

Martha Karstens
Chief

1-831-667-2113 W
1-831-595-9461 C

Today’s Forecast Discussion, 12/7/16

3:30 pm – 12/7/2016 Weather update

“Attached are anticipated rain totals for the upcoming rain event. There is a tropical moisture connection in this system so rain rates could be greater but for short periods of time. NWS emphasizing estimated rainfall totals are over a number of days.

Forecasters are not expecting any watches or warning at this time, but always be mindful that could happen as the storm hits landfall and develops. Plan ahead appropriately.

As always if you see anything significant happening you think we should be mindful of, please call the OES Duty Officer (DO) Line at 831-796-1920. That line is monitored 24/7. ”

(This summarizes the two attachments referenced above):

“Unsettled weather conditions likely from this evening through Saturday morning. Greatest rainfall amounts will be across the North Bay and along the Coastal Ranges of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast.
UPDATED INFORMATION
· Updates are highlighted in yellow. Forecast confidence has increased with respect to the greatest storm total rainfall amounts being mostly confined to the coastal ranges.
IMPACTS

*Impact (Rain):
· A wet pattern will return to our region late this afternoon and evening with rain possible off-and-on through Friday.
· Rainfall amounts are forecast to be greatest along the coastal ranges where storm total amounts in excess of 5″ will be possible.
o Please see attach graphic for potential rainfall amounts. However, please do not focus on exact values.
· Wet roadways likely to result in hazardous driving conditions, especially during morning/afternoon commuting hours Thursday and Friday.
· Reduced visibilities and ponding on roadways during periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.
· Clogged storm drains and rain gutters will likely result in localized urban flooding.
*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories:
· Currently none in effect.
· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Moderate for rainfall amounts across the region.
LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region. The highest rainfall totals are expected over the coastal ranges from Sonoma County southward through Monterey County where 3″ to 5″ will be possible through late week.
· Rainfall amounts and intensity will be much less across inland valley locations.
Weather Summary
A change in the weather pattern will result in increased chances for precipitation across the region from tonight through early Saturday as deeper moisture advects into the California coast. Rainfall will increase in intensity and coverage tonight and continue off and on through Saturday morning with the heaviest likely to occur tonight into Thursday morning and again Thursday night into Friday. With this system, the greatest rainfall totals will likely remain confined to the coastal ranges while inland valley locations will receive lesser amounts.”

“DISCUSSION…as of 09:10 AM PST Wednesday…Cool temperatures reported across the region this morning with many near or below freezing for a few hours before sunrise. This was even with the increased mid/high level cloud cover pushing across the region. These clouds will limit overall warming today as deeper moisture begins to advect into the region from the Pacific. At this time, only a few locations across the North Bay are reporting light rainfall as the lower levels remain dry over the remainder of the region. As the day progresses, the atmospheric profile will moisten and will likely result in an increase in light rain across much of the region by late this evening. As typical with these types of systems, the coastal ranges will see rainfall begin first and will also accumulate the most while inland valley locations will receive much less. Have made a few updates to the forecast to  reflect the most short-range model data in regards to timing and amount of precipitation through this evening….

Rainfall totals by Saturday evening will range from more than 4″ for some coastal hills, to generally 1 to 2.5″ for the bulk of our urban locations. Lesser amours can be expected for southern sections especially inland spots.”

Up here it was 35 degrees at dawn. Still quite chilly. Tree came down yesterday. It split close to the ground and blocked Plaskett. I was able to head off into the brush and get around it, but went down today with a friend to chain saw it open. Some nice oak for firewood, eventually.

Upcoming rain expectations

This is from NOAA, NWS. Now, I must admit, I have a bit of trouble with the math on this one. Rain is predicted to start Wednesday, and the (6 day) totals are to Sunday at 4 am. No matter how I count it, I don’t get six days out it – 4 … or 5, if one counts Sunday to 4 am as a full day. Anyway, the visual is a nice encapulation of what we can expect.

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