A lot of questions re the slides from Arroyo Seco to the Indians are answered by one who knows:

“The READS stated that if the slides could be cleared without having any of the material go into the river drainage then would allow them to be cleared. But for those of us that have seen the slides we know there is no way they could be cleared without a lot of material ending up in the river. So with that said I doubt the slides will be opened. I did have a dozer clean the road bed from the Seco campground to the trailhead at Horse Bridge so you can get Type-6 equipment to there easily now.”

Photo by Ken Wright looking north from DP 107:

Looks textbook to me, but I am not now, nor have I ever been, a firefighter.

Soberanes Fire daily update for September 14

Incident: Soberanes Fire Wildfire
Released: 15 min. ago
Related Information
Soberanes Fires daily update for September 14 (pdf 58 kb)
Los Padres National Forest
Daily Update: September 14, 2016
CONTACT:
Fire Information Line: (831) 204-0446
Email: sobranesfire2016@gmail.com
Incident: The Soberanes Fire is burning in the Los Padres National Forest, Ventana Wilderness, in Monterey County, CA. The fire was started by an illegal campfire on July 22, 2016 in Garrapata State Park.
Agency Jurisdiction: CAL FIRE San Benito-Monterey Unit/Los Padres National Forest.
Incident Command: California Incident Management Team 4, Rocky Opliger, Incident Commander.
Current Size: 107,375 acres (69,903 acres CA-LPF; 37,194 acres CAL FIRE)
Containment: 52% Personnel: 1,355 Cause: Illegal campfire Injuries: 1 fatality, 6 injuries
Structures Destroyed:
57 homes, 11 outbuildings
Structures Threatened:
410
Crews: 14
Engines: 64
Helicopters: 16
Dozers: 6
Masticators: 2
Water Tenders: 7
A public meeting will be held in Arroyo Seco on September 15, 2016, beginning at 6 PM.
Current Situation:
Weather conditions are now favorable for fire crews to begin executing a strategic plan to methodically initiate burn out activities that will strengthen the existing indirect fire line on the east-side of the fire. Indirect line is a fire line constructed away from the hot edge of the fire. Burning could begin as early as this morning.
Burn out involves intentionally burning vegetation from the indirect fire line. The operations will begin on Chews Ridge and progress northwesterly toward the existing containment line. Over the days ahead, crews will continue burning out the existing indirect line, forming a new containment line. The majority of the burnout operations will be ignited by individual fire crews using hand-held ignition devices.
The plan calls for creating a fire line that will prevent the fire from escaping the Ventana Wilderness Area. There is no intention to ignite all the unburned vegetation inside the Wilderness, just the perimeter.
The plan also includes protecting structures located inside the main indirect fire line. The public can expect to see increasing amounts of smoke as the burn out operations progress over the coming days and nights.
The fire containment has been lowered to 52% due to the current growth of the fire in remote inaccessible areas. The amount of uncontrolled fire perimeter changes constantly with the varying influences such as weather, fuels and topography. As burning of the indirect fire line continues the containment percentage will increase. The fire remains within existing containment lines.
All evacuation orders and warnings remain in effect.
For more information, visit: http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/ or follow us on social media at http://www.facebook.com/LosPadresNationalForest or http://www.twitter.com/LosPadresNF.

Containment has lost a little ground, down to 52% now.

8:30 am – John Chesnut’s map for today:

4 am – Again, there is no IR map for today, but I would suspect, rather than an ill pilot, or plane maintenance, as were true the last two times, this time it was due to cloud cover. From what I could see up here, between the clouds and the high fog, a flight would not have obtained much, if any, information. Instead, I bring you the Briefing map of the NEW “Control Objectives.” The one on the southern end of the fire is no longer the dozer line cut to the east from Rodeo Flats, but is Nacimiento-Fergusson RD. This is a 96×96 map (whatever that means) and these maps always crash my PDF to jpeg conversion software, so it is a screen shot. However, I have included the link, as always, so one can click through to the map itself. Also note the ridge of high pressure is coming back so temperatures will be rising and humidity will be dropping through the weekend.

Briefing Map in PDF

Here are the weather predictions and fire behavior discussions. Note, there are two of each – separate ones for each of the Eastern Operational area and the Western Operational area.

Here is an interesting chart:

Chart in PDF

1:15 pm -0 Nicholas Buford, who provided us with the great first hand account of the firing operation at Anderson Peak last night has also sent some incredible photos. About them, he has this to say:

“Here are 2 photos of yesterday’s efforts that were probably obscured from view for most people below the ridge line.

The close-up is a shot at DP-106 looking South East (Marble Peak in the bottom right corner)

The second is from the Lower West Side of the ridge, looking East. The smoke being about a half-mile south of Marble Peak. This was the flare-up that they called in Air Support to help tame.

All the best,
Nick and Cordelia”

Noon- from the USFS:

Soberanes Fire

Los Padres National Forest
Daily Update: September 13, 2016

CONTACT:
Fire Information Line: (831) 204-0446
Email: sobranesfire2016@gmail.com

Incident: The Soberanes Fire is burning in the Los Padres National Forest, Ventana Wilderness, in Monterey County, CA. The fire was started by an illegal campfire on July 22, 2016 in Garrapata State Park.
Agency Jurisdiction: CAL FIRE San Benito-Monterey Unit/Los Padres National Forest.
Incident Command: California Incident Management Team 4, Rocky Opliger, Incident Commander.

Current Size: 107,050 acres (69,856 acres CA-LPF; 37,194 acres CAL FIRE)
Containment: 60% Personnel: 1,384 Cause: Illegal campfire Injuries: 1 fatality, 7 injuries

Structures Destroyed:
57 homes, 11 outbuildings
Structures Threatened:
410
Crews: 20
Engines: 67
Helicopters: 17
Dozers: 8
Masticators: 2
Water Tenders: 7
Current Situation:

Today, the Soberanes Fire transitioned from the Alaska Incident Management Team to California Interagency Incident Management Team 4 at 6:00 A.M.

Last night firefighters successfully held the fire within indirect lines (firelines constructed away from the hot edge of the fire) and strategically ignited fires along portions of the indirect fireline. The fire also remains within existing containment lines. Main actions for today will be to continue strategic burning operations in the morning along the Coast Ridge Road, protecting structures in the Arroyo Seco area, and patrolling the fire area by air. Firefighters have also begun restoring bulldozer lines constructed early in the firefight in the northwestern area of the fire to prevent erosion and reduce other impacts.

On the coastal southwest side of the fire, crews continued to build bulldozer lines along the Coast Ridge Road for use as future control lines. Today, firefighters will continue securing this indirect control line as they progress to the south with firing operations; keeping the fire north of Rodeo Flats. Retardant has also been placed along Indians Road, about one mile and a half east of Anderson Peak.

On the east side, firefighters continue to focus on the Arroyo Seco area by pretreating indirect lines with fire retardant and continue to protect structures. The strategy is to keep the fire in the Ventana Wilderness, west of Carmel River and south of Willow Creek. Historic fire lines, constructed to suppress previous fires, are being reopened to minimize the effects to wilderness.

Yesterday evening, approximately 100 people attended a public meeting at the Arroyo Seco Fire Station and Community Center. Another community meeting will be hosted in Arroyo Seco on Thursday, September15, at 6 PM.
All Evacuation orders and warnings remain in effect.

For more information, visit: http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/ or follow us on social media at http://www.facebook.com/LosPadresNationalForest or http://www.twitter.com/LosPadresNF.

************************************************

10:30 am – Weather prediction from John Lindsey in SLO Co., whom I follow regularly:

“This system also will produce possible rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada. Also of note: Moisture and instability will be limited, therefore a major
thunderstorm outbreak is not expected. However, given the elevated fire danger in the region, the risk of new wildfire ignitions because of lightning is a concern.

High pressure is forecast to build over California in the wake of the departing upper-level low pressure system Wednesday into Saturday for fresh to strong (19 to 31 mph) northwesterly winds along the coastline, mostly clear September skies, except for a few areas of overnight marine low clouds along the beaches and coastal valleys, and higher temperatures primarily away from the coast. At this time, rain is not expected through the end of September.

*************************************

John Chesnut notes: “From the IR read me file —
Weather Conditions –
The vicinity of the fire was heavily cloud covered.

Details –
Heavy clouds were present over the 80% of the fire. Small portions of the perimeter could be analyzed, especially the southeastern end of the fire. The majority of the perimeter is indicated as estimated.
A significant area of growth was noted along the southeastern portion of the perimeter.
Numerous isolated fires were detected within the perimeter.

Acreage –
Estimated Acreage: 107,050
Acreage Change (if any): + 1,323″ And here is his map: (BSK notes: very similar slop over on the coast ridge in both John’s map and Keith’s map posted last night and reproduced on my blog last night.)

6:00 am – I did find an IR Flight map, but it is really difficult to read, but does seem to show the new active fire line out by DP-107 to 108:

IR Flight Map in PDF

5:30 am – no IR Flight again today, but I did get a comment last night just after I went to bed that helps explain what happened on the western fire line last night. I just got to approving it this am, as I had gone to bed and a first comment from a reader has to be approved before it can post publicly.

“Hey all,

I’ve been up here with Cordelia Cluett at Marble Peak for the last couple days assisting the firefighters with their water operations. They had a successful burn yesterday at DP-106 and Marble Peak, and laid a retardant check line just a few hundred yards south of Marble Peak to contain the fire for the night crew. Around midnight last night, a dry wind came in and pushed the fire south through the check-line and made for quite an active night of trying to tame the flames. They even had to bring in some of the day shift around 4am to assist them in the operation. Around 10:30am we heard crews on the radio calling in air support to help douse some hotspots and start double-bomber lines of retardant perpendicular to the ridge to try and halt / steer the fire off the ridge. They pulled in crews from Northern divisions along to road to assist in today’s operations, setting engines all along the fire to pump hose-lines and stay with and ahead of the fire as much as possible. We heard air operations overhead all day today. From what we could discern from the radio traffic, the fire burned quite a few miles south along the ridge today, at least all the way to around DP-107. The day crew stayed with the fire until the night team was able to arrive and take over just about 40 minutes ago.

The weather here is quite cold and fogged in. Crews driving in and out are having a slow time working their way along the ridge due to visibility. It’s supposed to get into near-freezing temperatures up here tonight, and be fairly cool and dry for the next few days.

With as much activity going on along the ridge, there has been zero slop-over onto the western side of the ridge (believe me, we keep triple checking). The teams seem pretty confident in their efforts to tame the burn, as the main concern has been keeping the heat down. Where there’s fuel, there’ll be fire, but keeping it at a lower temperature will keep it from spreading too fast. That’s what most of today’s air ops were aiming to provide.

Will try to update with more pictures and information when we can.

All the best,

Nick and Cordelia”

It is quite cool (45 degrees) and foggy up here this early am, so should help with the containment lines up along the coast ridge this am. I’ll add what maps I can shortly.

Here is a briefing map that continues to resist conversion to jpeg, so this is a screen shot, but it shows where DP-107 is that Nick mentions. I do not believe the active fire line is up-to-date.

Briefing Map in PDF