(Salmon Creek on Monday)
Sorry I haven’t gotten around to posting the notes from the BSMAAC meeting nor updated the Cal-Trans project. I’m a busy lady. Will try to get to that tomorrow.
Two storms headed our way. The first, Sunday afternoon through Monday is not expected to bring as much rain as the Tuesday through Wednesday system.
The predictions for the Tuesday through Friday system coming through have changed, somewhat, and the Tuesday system is expected to come through relatively fast. It is still possible that it will cause some locally heavy rain, but not for the extended period previously predicted. Caution is still advised for those near the burn areas, and it is advisable to keep an eye on the forecasts, as the system gets closer, and predictions.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST SATURDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. SATL IMAGERY INDC THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE DISTRICT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF DIFFICULTY WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN. THE 06Z GFS IS NOW MUCH DRIER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE SHORTWAVES MORE OF AN INSIDE SLIDER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINING OFF THE COAST... WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE OCEAN. WITH SUCH A LARGE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AS WELL AS LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PER THE HPC DISCUSSION HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF.