Starting tomorrow, I’ll be covering the storms that are to blanket California, so here are a few Christmas Trees for your enjoyment.
More to come later today …
Sometime during Storm Watch, Xmas 2010, I will post a photo or two of my own tree. Be safe. Pay attention, and ejoy the upcoming storms!
Oh, boy … look at this morning’s discussion from NOAA out of Monterey. I’ve highlighted a few things, and pared it down a bit, but this storm system is still shaping up as expected.
“THINGS SHOULD START TO GET MORE INTERESTING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A NARROW PLUME OF 1.5 TPW TAKES AIM AT THE BAY AREA. CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST …
SATURDAY WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL HILLS …
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE ACTION SOMETIME SATURDAY BUT THE MAIN HOSE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HILLS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE FOR NEXT WEEKS SYSTEMS…WHICH WOULD BE GOOD NEWS…SO AS TO NOT FOCUS ALL OF THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER A SMALL AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD 5-10 INCH RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE ACROSS OUR HILLS WITH GENEROUS 2-5 INCH TOTALS FOR THE VALLEYS. MANY OF THESE NUMBERS MAY STILL BE UNDERSTATED AND NO DOUBT SOME OF OUR USUAL WET SPOTS (VENADO/BEN LOMOND AND VARIOUS SPOTS IN THE SANTA LUCIAS) COULD SEE SOME 7 DAY RAIN TOTALS BEYOND 15 INCHES. NEEDLESS TO SAY HYDRO ISSUES WILL BE FRONT AND CENTER WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING BECOMING LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS IS TO BE EXPECTED AS WELL BUT OF COURSE CURRENT RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW HEADING INTO THIS EVENT.”
My SLO Co. meteorologist has been much more conservative all week, until today. He said:
“The first system will produce increasing clouds and southerly winds early Friday leading to rain and strong to gale force (25 and 38 mph) southeasterly winds with guest reaching 45 mph on Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. The heaviest rain will occur on Saturday. The winds will decrease to fresh to strong (19 and 31 mph) levels and shift out of the southwest on Saturday.
The rain and southerly winds will temporarily taper off later on Sunday into Monday. Rainfall amounts over the weekend should range between 0.75 and 1.5 inches in the North County, 1 and 3 inches in the coastal valleys of San Luis Obispo county with higher amounts in the coastal mountains.
The next low pressure system will produce increasing southerly winds and moderate to heavy rain Monday evening into Wednesday morning. Rain will likely be very heavy on Tuesday, especially over the higher terrain. At this time, the main focus for the precipitation will likely be north of Big Sur where 3 to 5 inches of rain may fall over a two day period leading to possible hydrological problems. However, the last two model runs have put more of the moisture over the Central Coast.
The last in this series of storms is forecast to produce rain and southerly winds over the Central Coast next Thursday into Friday. Fair weather should return on Christmas.”
Congratulations to Kelly (who never gave up) and her team of many, our CPOAs Butch Kronlund and Dick Ravich for their untiring and ceaseless work to make this happen! There were so many people involved in this unending process, I can’t list them all, but from me and the other residents in Big Sur who are at-risk of Wildfire, you have my deep gratitude for seeing this through and getting it passed. What a great Christmas present. Blessings to all.
Residents of Communities At-Risk of Wildfire,
The Monterey County Board of Supervisors this afternoon [ed. note -yesterday, Tuesday the 14th] voted 5-0 in favor of having the Chair of the Board of Supervisors sign the Monterey County Community Wildfire Protection Plan (MCCWPP)
Happy Holidays to you and yours!
Respectfully,
Kelly
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Kelly Erin O’Brien, President
Board of Directors
Monterey Fire Safe Council
2221 Garden Road
Monterey, CA 93940
I’ll have storm watch later, and “good old Mac is back” so I have my Christmas Trees to post, also.
It would seem my MacBook is on strike, today. It won’t turn on. Unfortunately, that is where I downloaded the Christmas Trees to post today. Why it is on strike is a good question. It could be the 4 times I’ve dropped it, over the last year, or it could be a cord that needs to be replaced, or it could be ?? In any event, I’m hoping it will somehow heal itself, and we can once again be partners. Until then, I am back on my iBook G4, kept around for back-up.
Thanks for sending this, Dave Allen!
From NOAA this afternoon (they were talking Friday through middle of next week):
“WHEREAS ALL AREAS WILL RECEIVE ALOT OF RAIN…IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A 75-100 MILE WIDE AREA THAT WILL RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS “HOSE” HAS BEEN CHANGING WITH EACH MODEL RUN…SO IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO TELL DEFINITIVELY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE.”
The weather guys said this, this morning: DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE. ENJOY THE DRY WEATHER BECAUSE THE DISTRICT WILL BE IN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SYSTEMS TAPPING INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS STARTING ON FRIDAY…AND CONTINUING THOUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.”
They also admit: “ITS ONLY TUESDAY SO WILL TRY TO KEEP THE HYPE METER IN CHECK…AS ITS OFTEN HARD TO LIVE UP TO EXPECTATIONS ONCE THE BALL GETS ROLLING….NONETHELESS POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY REAL TO SEE 5-10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK…ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS PER CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION FROM THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND THESE NUMBERS COULD BE UNDERSTATED. NO DOUBT WE`LL SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE LARGE STEM RIVERS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING SEEMS LIKELY AS WELL WITH WIND DAMAGE AND ASSOCIATED POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES ALL BEING LIKELY OUTCOMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN FRESHENED UP.”
So, batten down the hatches, stock up on supplies, and get ready, boys and girls. We could be in for a wild ride!
This is the late afternoon report from NOAA today. “THE ECMWF STALLS THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING…AND KEEPS THE RAIN GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT…WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE INCREASING THE RAIN INTENSITY ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT 10 DAYS NEEDS TO BEAR WATCHING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN…ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES (THE GFS IS VERY WET TOO)”
Before I post more Xmas trees this evening or tomorrow (and I’ve got quite a few), I must take a moment to caution everyone to be paying attention to the upcoming storm system. It is not scheduled to hit until Friday, and we know how things can change in five days, but I’ve gotten 3 warnings – 2 from meteorologists – about the storm scheduled to hit Friday, possibly lasting until next Wednesday. An arctic storm is scheduled to meet up with a sub-tropical storm, and when it does, all hell might break loose. Large amounts of rainfall, accompanied by heavy winds are possible. So, it behooves us all to be paying attention this week. I will post more either Wednesday or Thursday, as this storm approaches. There may be sprinkles/light rain showers passing over the Central Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Hey, keep ’em coming. Here are a couple I got tonight:
You will note by the photos behind the Christmas Tree that Ray is one of my firefighter friends. And look at all those fire engines and air support on that tree! It wouldn’t dare catch fire! Thanks, Ray!
And here is one from another friend:
That is a beautiful tree, Nadine and a great shot of it! Thank you.
I have one from Australia I am still downloading, so will add that one when it comes through.
Keep them coming. I’d love to see a whole forest of Christmas Trees here by Christmas Day! You are all the best!
I know it is not Big Sur-related, but it is season related. Here is my daughter’s tree:
Here is a friend’s tree:
Gotta love those zebra Xmas balls! Only Rose could even find them! For those who don’t know Rose, she has a “thing” for Zebras. She collects them in all forms except the real form.
Thanks, Crystal and Rose, for answering my call.
Do you have a Christmas Tree? I do, but I’m still decorating, so I’ll post soon. Send me a photo of your Christmas Tree to post here. I’d like to keep this going because it is joyful and lifts my spirits. I hope it lifts yours, too!
And from my friend, Debbie, a gorgeous photo for all to enjoy. Thank you so much Debbie for bringing me such joy in the middle of such difficult news!
Just shot this morning!
Families grow apart, come together, constantly reforming themselves from one entity to another.
When my mother got breast cancer, 5 -7 years ago, our dynamics changed once again. I helped her through the classes, the double mastectomy, the recovery. They got it all, and we were happy.
When my son went through a painful divorce, a year or two ago, we talked almost every day as he learned to handle the pain and redefine his being. He visited from Oregon more often.
Yesterday, Mom called to say she had metastatic breast cancer. It was now in her bones. My son has been working on wrapping up his life in Oregon and starting new down here in Big Sur. The two events are coming together during this year’s holiday season, and my life will never be the same.
As I help my mother through her transition from this life to the next, and my son from being two to being one, my own life is full. I need to get my practice into a position that I can take off at a moments notice, my own house in order in many ways, and be available to my family in transition. That is my current priority.
I am not abandoning bigsurkate’s blog. I am still here. I am still keeping an eye out on storms, road conditions, community events and other items of interest for and about Big Sur, it is just I won’t be here in cyberspace as often until this time of transition is a bit smoother – until at least one transition is complete, probably my son’s. I will check in when I can, but through the holidays, at least, posting every day, as I have for the past two years is not likely.
Blessings, and may this post remind you all that what these holidays are about is family and friends and sharing your time with them. Gifts mean nothing, unless it is the gift of yourself. Namasté.
From Kelly O’Brien (in part):
Fellow Board Members and Friends,
Due to the fact that Supervisor Potter was injured over the weekend and was absent from the Board of Supervisor’s meeting today, the Supervisor sought to continue the hearing on the Monterey County Community Wildfire Protection Plan (MCCWPP), scheduled to be considered this afternoon.
Indeed, in deference to Supervisor Potter, there was a motion put forth to “continue” the “hearing” with the decision on authorizing the Chair of the Board of Supervisors to sign the MCCWPP put off until next week, or the earliest meeting Supervisor Potter can attend. Part of the motion was the declaration of an “Intent to Sign” (non-bonding) the MCCWPP.
There’s much to be done between then and now:
1) Sherry Tune of USFS wishes to discuss how changes she wishes to see in the MCCWPP can be integrated. Staff made it clear that they will hesitate to make a recommendation without Sherry being satisfied with the sections she has addressed.
2) The Science section must be finalized (we received Dr. Scott Stevens’ document from the Sierra Club today and our Science team will review and make recommendations).
3) Supervisor Parker mentioned some additions – rather than edits – to the MCCWPP that she would like to see included. By and large, they were harmless and had mostly to do with structure protection, upgrades and enhancements.
4) Appendix J is, so far, a minor bone of contention…
All speakers before the BoS were positive. No environmental group representatives (in opposition) showed up. …
We must work diligently to finalize MCCWPP details and to contain any further attempt to expand the discussion beyond what is currently on the table.
Thanks to Pam Silkwood for moving the Supes toward issuing a motion that included an “Intent to Sign”
Best,
Kelly
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Kelly Erin O’Brien, President
Board of Directors
Monterey Fire Safe Council
2221 Garden Road
Monterey, CA 93940
(650) 533-1010 cell
(831) 658-0821 office
(831) 659-2320 home
http://www.firesafemonterey.org
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