4:00 pm NOAA forecast update: “THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR PASSES OVER THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. ON SAT MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. DURING THIS TIME 850 TEMPS ARE DOWN TO -7C…700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -17 TO -18C… THICKNESSES BELOW 520 DM…AND 500 MB TEMPS PER THE ECMWF AS COLD AS
-39C! IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THEN SNOW LEVELS COULD VERY WELL DROP TO SEA LEVEL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SINCE THIS WOULD BE EXTREMELY UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR (OR ANY TIME DURING THE WINTER) AND IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OFF HAVEN`T PUT IT INTO THE GRIDS. HOWEVER…IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO SEA LEVEL. KEEP TUNED!”
Linda Parker so graciously sent me this photo of Big Sur’s backcountry, taken Saturday. It serves as a great lead-in for this next very meterologically interesting system, which will bring more snow, starting as early as Thursday, and I will be back home by then.
And here is a part of NOAA’s discussion about the next one. Woohoo, could be quite a ride.
“FORECAST BY THURSDAY STARTS TO GET METEOROLOGICALLY INTERESTING. GOING BACK TO LAST WEEK THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RECORD COLD AIR MASS SLIDING DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT.
ANYWAY THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF DEVELOP SHOWERY PRECIP AS EARLY AS 18Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE BAY AREA. LATEST 06Z NAM SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -5 CELSIUS BY 18Z THURSDAY IN THE NORTH BAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 1000 FEET. NO WAY TO HONE IN DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT INITIAL BOUNDARY OF SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY…MAYBE AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN AFTER THE PRECIP HAS SHUT OFF. HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ONE OR TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE BETWEEN 519-523 DM (DEPENDING ON MODEL USED) WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -4 TO -7 CELSIUS RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE BAY AREA. HAVE CURRENTLY PUT SNOW LEVELS NO LOWER THAN 1000 FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE. GRIDS AND TEXT FORECAST WILL SHOW SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS LIKELY ABOVE THIS LEVEL. NO MATTER WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THIS COLD AND UNSETTLED TIME FRAME FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ITS JUST TOO HARD TO NAIL DOWN ANY DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.”
Finally, for those following my personal saga, my mom passed into the light at 12:21 this morning. I had the honor of being with her, and sitting with the body while arrangements for her pronouncement and transportation were made. A large crowd is expected at her funeral tomorrow, and then I will head home to my beloved coastal mountains.