Current & Expected Conditions

6:00 pm – and here is the NOAA forecast afternoon update:

COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE NORTHBAY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO 100 TO 400 OVER THE NORTH BAY TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FALL TO SEA LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.

WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS SNOW WILL BECOME AN ISSUE FOR ELEVATED AREAS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHBAY MOUNTAIN ZONES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE COLD AIR AND PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SANTA CRUZ, EAST BAY MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIAS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THEREFORE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL COME INTO EFFECT FOR THOSE MOUNTAIN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SEA LEVEL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND YES SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN SAN FRANCISCO. THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS NOT RECEIVED MEASURABLE SNOW IN QUITE SOME TIME HOWEVER THIS IS A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE EXPERIENCED IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. … HOWEVER, A FEW HUNDRED FEET IN ELEVATION AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE.

7:30 am – The entire mountain top is covered white this morning, but not with snow, with frost. Quite significant, too. It is bright and sunny and calm, but that will change.

Today’s NOAA forecast is again interesting. Basically, higher elevations could be facing blizzard conditions this afternoon/evening, depending on where one is. Here is some of what NOAA said this morning:

LOOK FOR RAIN TO SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE FIRST MAIN BAND FORECAST TO GO THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY SEVERAL HOURS LATER. RAINFALL COULD EVEN BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING … (AND MORE THAN 2/3″ POSSIBLE FOR LOCAL RANGES). FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS RAIN WILL QUICKLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW UP TO 2000 FEET WITH SIMPLY SNOW FORECAST FOR SPOTS ABOVE THAT. SNOW FLAKES WILL LIKELY START TO ACCUMULATE OVER THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS SOUTH OF SF BAY EVERYTHING HINGES ON HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET BUT WILL DROP CLOSER TO 1000 FEET BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. … MANY SPOTS OVER 2500 FEET WILL LIKELY PICK UP MORE THAN 6″ OF SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE DURATION WITH LOCALLY UP TO FOOT POSSIBLE….CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WITH A MIX DOWN TO 500 FEET ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BRING THE MIX DOWN LOCALLY TO SEA LEVEL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS AND WILL GIVE US THE BEST SHOT AT SNOW HITTING THE OCEAN. UNFORTUNATELY FOR FAN OF WINTER WEATHER…IT`S NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE BELOW 500 FEET.

WINDS… SOME LOCAL GUSTS AROUND THE 40 MPH MARK. BIGGER CONCERN IS IF THE WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWFALL TO PRODUCE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES (OR EVEN LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS). THE SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER 2000 FEET WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WHICH WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THIS IMPACT ON LOCAL ROADS. WILL LET DAY CREW LOOK AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THEY WANT TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ANY OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.