Have had company all afternoon, and continue to do so, so while I will check in before bed, I am taking the evening off.

7:45 pm – a wonderful photo from Pilot Bill taken at 7500 feet at 1640 hours this afternoon:

10:00 am – here is another photo of Saturday’s plume by Ana (Alva) Sargenti from her house on CVR:

9:30 am – here is John Chesnut’s map:

I don’t like that isolated little finger there directly east of McWay Rocks. Also, the weather and fire behavior predictions are warning of the potential to push toward The Coast Ridge containment lines. Not a happy thought. It does mean that the fire is less likely to reach Tassajara Zen Center, though. We will just have to watch the winds for the next few days.

7:00 am – here are today’s maps:

IR Topo Map in PDF

Soberanes and Chimney Fires are now only 35 miles apart, while Chimney isn’t growing anymore, Soberanes continues to do so. And here are the daily fire behavior and weather predictions for today:

5 am – Good morning! (I know, it is way too early) As of the latest IR Map, which was flown last night at 8:41 pm, this fire is now up over 100,000 acres – 100,428 per the map (which I will post later this morning) for an increase of approximately 2,000 acres on Sunday.

From the USFS Alaskan IMT – Here are some highlights from Sunday evening’s #SoberanesFire planning meeting.

• There were no spot fires reported across the Coast Ridge Road on Sunday.
• Expected north/northeast winds on Monday should slow the spread of fire toward the Tassajara Zen Center. (BSK note: doesn’t appear to have gotten any closer on Sunday. Dare we hope the fire with bypass the Center this time around?)
• A warming and drying trend is expected to begin Tuesday with temperatures over most of the fire ranging from the mid-80s to mid-90s through at least Friday, with little or no relative humidity recovery.
• Fire is now established in the North Big Sur, Willow Creek and Zigzag Creek drainages.
• There was active fire spread in the Pick Creek and Willow Creek drainages and in the vicinity of Black Cone Mountain, though it was much reduced in that area after a run to the ridge on Saturday.
• The fire has not crossed the Willow Creek drainage.
• Active fire above the Carmel River on the east side of the fire continues to decline with little significant movement noted in recent infrared flights.
• The Burned Area Emergency Response team from the U.S. Forest Service has completed its initial assessment in the northern portion of the fire and a preliminary Soil Burned Severity Plan should be completed by Wednesday.
• Quote of the Day: “The fire flexed its muscles last night and will continue to do so when conditions are right, and we will respond accordingly.” – Alaska Interagency Incident Management Team Incident Commander Tom Kurth about Saturday night’s flare up that resulted in a 2,700-acre increase.

Okay, that’s it. Back at a decent hour with the usual maps and notes.

7:30 pm – Good night, Day 45 – where smoke and fog meet. Glad to say goodnight. May tomorrow bring clearer, cleaner, bluer skies.

And here is the latest MODIS from John Chesnut (time stamped 2:54 pm). Far west side seems to be holding well, but South is moving quite a bit.

4:15 pm – a photo taken by Aaron McGilloway and sent to me by Iris McWilliams about 3 pm from East Carmel Valley Road past Arroyo SEco looking west.

1:30 pm – one USFS source has said: They lost the fire on a dramatic slopover. That is why the DC-10 was called in. They were panicked it would run away from all containment trails. (And I said at the time they wouldn’t divert the VLAT unless they were worried about containment.) Now as for Tassajara – They all thought it was going to go through yesterday. Good chance today because it’s less than a mile away (Official word is 2.5 miles) and satelite data shows lots of pre- heating out front of the fire. In any event, the fire is rapidly approaching the Zen Center, as we all know and expected. (Steve Harper, whose opinion I trust, takes issue with the above statements. I would rather go with Steve’s gut than with the USFS source, frankly.) Let’s pray they are prepared and get help this time. I understand air resources are committed to Tassajara.

And from the USFS air operations – what we all knew just from watching:

11 am and the USFS finally released their long-awaited update. I am only including the most pertinent part.

Soberanes Fire
Los Padres National Forest
September 4, 2016

DAILY UPDATE

Fire Information Phone (831)204-0446
soberanesfire2016@gmail.com
Media Line: (831)484-9647
http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/

Incident: The Soberanes Fire is burning in the Los Padres National Forest, Ventana Wilderness, Monterey County, CA. The fire was started by an illegal campfire on July 22, 2016, in Garrapata State Park.
Agency Jurisdiction: CAL FIRE San Benito-Monterey Unit/Los Padres National Forest.
Incident Command: Alaska Interagency Incident Management Team, Tom Kurth Incident Commander.

Current Size: 98,420 acres (61,226 acres CA-LPF, 37,194 acres CAL FIRE)
Containment: 60% Cause: Illegal campfire Injuries: 1 fatality, 6 injuries
Structures Destroyed: 57 homes, 11 outbuildings Structures Threatened: 410
Current Resources: Crews: 16 Engines: 59 Helicopters: 15 Dozers: 3
Water Tenders: 7 Masticators: 2
Total Personnel : 1153

Current Situation: An increase in winds late in the afternoon and evening resulted a significant increase in fire activity. The overall acreage increased by approximately 2,700 acres, most of which was to the southeast. The fire moved roughly 1. 8 miles and has now passed the Marble Creek Trail and Black Cone Mountain.
Late Saturday night, satellite heat detections prompted concern for public safety and a possible evacuation for the Tassajara Zen Center. Actual fire spread was evaluated. This resulted in a decision not to issue an evacuation warning. While satellite imagery is a useful tool, it can sometimes be misleading, as radiant heat, gases and smoke can result in a heat image that is not actual fire. The eastern edge of the active fire is now approximately 2.5 miles from the Tassajara Zen Center, but separated by several ridgelines.
Firefighters were able to contain two spot fires and a place where fire crept across the containment line along Coast Ridge Rd., 1 mile north of Anderson Peak. Managers say those fires no longer pose a threat to containment lines.
No firing operations are planned today. Fire suppression repair on the north portion of the fire has been completed. Structure protection along Partington Ridge and protection assessment work is ongoing at Tassajara Zen Center and Arroyo Seco.

8:45 am – Here is a structure protection map for the Highway One Corridor from McWay Falls south past Esalen and Hot Springs Canyon;

Structure Protection Map in PDF

7 am – After I went back to bed, there was a report by a BSVFB Member that the fire jumped the containment lines at McWay Canyon. The CHP reports this as well (note, all those “PMs” may actually be “AMs” per the initial report by brigade member, but not certain, as there is a slop over that shows on the IR flight map.

6:59 PM 7 [16] [Notification] [CHP]-Problem changed from 1184-Provide Traffic Control to FIRE-Report of Fire by CHP
5:28 PM 6 [14] 1022 LN 5-7
5:28 PM 5 [13] HEATH W/ CTRANS ETA 20-30 MINS FOR CONES and SINAGE – HE WIL BRING ENOUGH TO CLOSE THE RHS
5:25 PM 4 [11] PER 27-12 REQ SIGNS AND CONES FROM FIRE COMMAND POST
5:15 PM 3 [5] VEH STALLED IN # 1 LN
4:42 PM 2 [2] FIRE JUMPED BREAK LINE

4:42 PM 1 [1] PARK IS CLOSED NOW

4 am – for all you early birds out there, here are the days maps. These clearly indicate the huge plumes we saw yesterday were NOT solely from the burn out operation, but instead from the runs the main fire made to the South, toward Lost Valley, and to the east, were it crested Black Cone. And for you trivia people out there, several of us got curious about which fire on the LPNF burned for the longest duration. It was the Zaca Fire of 2007 which burned for 60 days from 7/4/07-9/2/07.

IR Topo Map in PDF

The South Ops map has not been updated since yesterday with the run we witnessed yesterday, but there is a new operations map – the Tassajara Ops map that does show this and the run up and over Black Cone, so I include that one instead.

Tassajara Ops Map in PDF

And here are the weather and fire behavior predictions.

 

5:00 pm – 2 type 1 tankers and the VLAT working the fire this afternoon. (VLAT = Very Large Air Tanker, often the DC-10 around here.)

And, just to make it interesting, there is a fire back on Pine Canyon Road, west of King City off of Jolon RD, in case we get bored.

4 pm – And from Howard Jones at Sky Ranch on the Carmel Valley side:

From USFS – a burn out operation, but man, the winds are kickin it up here.

3:20 pm – from here:

This is a new smoke plume on the north west side of Rancho San Carlos and the pager called for a full vegetation response with 2 WTs and a full strike team. This is the operations map of that area, zoomed in to show Williams Canyon which is where access is gained.

This is a photo of a plume (possibly this one?) taken by Howard Jones from Las Laureles Grade:

 

And this is one I just took from my place. This is a different plume, probably from the South Fork burn area. However,  in FRONT of the plume, there is drift smoke coming in from the right, or east of the frame, which is probably the other spot fire or flare up by William’s Canyon. And the white between me and Prewitt Ridge? Fog. It is windy here, but quite chilly for the first week of September.

 

I have been trying to get the maps up since 11, but am running into all sorts of technical difficulties. Let me try again. And don’t forget the Community Meeting tonight at 6 pm at the Cachagua Store.

IR Topo Map in PDF

So Ops Map in PDF

And finally, for now, the weather and fire behavior discussions;