4:00 pm update – Big Sur River peaked at 160 cubic feet per second. WOW! Uh, oh. Have you read the forecast discussion posted at 3 pm? It does not look good for this evening. There are ominous clouds to the north, and out on the ocean, although I am mostly clear. Snow levels might get down to 1500 feet tonight, the flood watch is still in effect, and this storm is still with us. I had 2″ of rain last night, and another 1/2 inch so far today. More expected tonight. Possibility of lightning, too.

Usually, I pick relevant portions of the forecast discussion and post here. The 3 pm posting is very long, and it is ALL relevant, so if you live in Big Sur, the Monterey area, or the Santa Cruz mountains, I would urge you to go to the right, under 2008-2009 Winter Conditions, and click on the NOAA forecast discussion link.

1:05 pm update – it’s  a white Christmas! Snow began falling at exactly 1:05 pm. Now back to finishing the lamb, etc. Later – the snow lasted only for a few minutes, but it was pretty while it lasted.

8:00 am update – Two inches of rain last night, bringing the season total to 11″. Winds still howling up here. It starts to get on my nerves, after a while. Snow possible this afternoon. Merry Christmas, everyone!

If you haven’t seen Joyce’s holiday card below, take a look. It is sweet.

My dear friend Joyce, gave me permission to post this wonderful holiday message, from one who lost her home during the Basin Fire. 

Joyce, you are amazing! The Coast is lucky to count you among our many strong crones. I am blessed to be your friend! Thank you for sharing this with all our Big Sur friends – near and far!

Noon update – winds are still present, and still gusting over 30 mph, just not as often. Every so often it gusts up again around 40 mph. Rains also present, but not significant. So far, .25 inches since last night. Dogs don’t want anything to do with outside, right now. LOL.

8:30 am – Its Christmas Eve, the winds are here, but not as bad as they have been in the past. My one neighbor used to have a wind gauge, but it broke at 140 mph (oh how well I remember that night!), so I consider the current winds (around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, estimated) to be a breeze, frankly. I don’t get freaked until I have 75-100 mph winds. No rain, to speak of, just drizzle. If you haven’t seen the photos of Saturday’s Little Sur Fire, scroll down to do so. 

Enjoy the day, wherever you are, and count the many blessings you have in your lives. Merry Christmas Eve.

A couple additions to the “announcements” page – Christmas Caroling tonight starting at 6 pm at River Inn; Bistro opens to locals; Cal-Trans announcement about Holiday schedules.

7:00 pm – current whether discussion:

DISCUSSION...AS OF 5:50 PM PST TUESDAY...RECENTLY ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST WHICH BEGINS 
4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EXPIRES WEDNESDAY AT NOON

1:00 pm -current weather discussion follows:

NEEDLESS TO SAY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS 
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS IN 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE OVER 
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. . . .

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY MAINTAINING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE 
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL SETTLE 
INTO THE AREA BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 3000 FEET. SHOW 
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

9:30 am – not much rain, less than 1/4 inch. Catching up on some reports, but road seems to be clear. Hoping it clears up so a couple friends can come up for a visit today. Otherwise, I bought WAY too much food and booze (well, is there really such a thing as too much booze on hand during the holiday season?)

6:30 am – definitely not clear. It is raining. I forgot to empty the rain gauge, too, darn. Oh well, I’ll just subtract the 2.25 we just got.

Also, updated forecast has snow on Christmas Day down to 3000. That’s me! Maybe I WILL have a white Christmas, after all.

Added a new link to the blogroll — the BSVFB. This is a place to make donations and buy things which will support our local fire brigade! I know that economic times are difficult right now, but if everyone of my blog readers donates only $5 or $10, it will make a HUGE difference for the next fire season. And for those of us who have benefited from their services, here is an easy way to donate and/or support their efforts!

Speaking of the Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade, did you know about the fire on Saturday that they responded to? Nor did I until Firefox informed me. When I wrote about it, I was contacted with these photos.

Daniel Danbom sent me these photographs of the fire at the Little Sur on Saturday that he thought my readers might enjoy. Thanks so much Daniel. If you want to see more of his photographs, check out his website: www.quicksilverfastphoto.com

Clear weather predicted for tomorrow, Tuesday, 12/23, so unless someone sends me something, I doubt I will be posting — UNLESS I finally get around to posting the BSMAAC meeting notes, and Cal-Trans projects. No promises, I finally don’t have an emergency with my work!

10:00 am update – quite chilly, but there is sun. Cal-Trans still reporting no problems, and CHP still reporting a lane closure at MM 50. I don’t know what to tell you.

8:00 am update  – 2.25 inches last night, bringing the season total to 8.75 inches. WOW! That was some rainfall. And this storm was the light one? Big Sur River flow peaked at 85 cubic feet per second. Quite a spike from the 15 cubic feet per second which is the usual.

Per the CHP website, there is a slide (it doesn’t actually SAY slide, but what else could it be?) at MM 50, blocking one lane, just reported at 8 am. It is not on the Cal-Trans website, yet. MM 50 is between River Inn and Andrew Molera SP. And remember, my friends, the slides do not stop just because the rain has!

BTW, while showers have not been taken out of the forecast for Christmas Day, snow has. Rather have snow than rain. Oh, well.

Happy Holidays to all. May they treat Big Sur gently!

11:15 pm update – continuous rain, increase in amount. Nepenthe is reporting 1.03 inches thus far. The Big Sur River water flow is steadily increasing. Check the chart. It is closely approaching the “pay attention” stage, particularly for the Grange and Debbie. Neither the CHP nor Cal-Trans are reporting any road problems at this hour, but frankly, I’d be surprised if there weren’t any rocks in the road, and if a slide doesn’t occur sometime before morning, based on the level of rain I can currently hear outside. Remember, what I get up here, eventually makes its way downhill!

BE SAFE!!

9:15 pm update – Nice, gentle rain. No big storm, no downpours, no lightning, hail or other phenomena, just a steady, gentle rain. Let you know the rain total in the am. Wow, Nepenthe automatic weather station is already reporting .67? Amazing. 

3:50 pm update – Boy, did I call that one. It is now raining.

3:30 pm update – The wind picked up a bit about half an hour ago, but has died back down. Temps have dropped slightly. It is currently 46.6. No rain, but it “feels” imminent.

Rain expected today and tomorrow. Half an inch expected in Big Sur today and tonight, and then just a smidgeon tomorrow. (Like that technical term?) Will update as the rain hits the Top ‘o the World.

Also, there may be a white Christmas above 3500 ft., maybe down as low as 2500. The models seem to be uncertain about whether this storm coming in on Christmas from Alaska will be out to sea or on the coast.

I’ve been asleep at the computer, I guess, because I totally missed this one this afternoon, until firefox brought it to my attention. Power outage due to fire caused by down lines. Power outage to continue to sometime tomorrow, at the earliest, maybe longer.

I am so over fires and fire seasons, this one snuck up on me. Here is what firefox reported:

“Kate,

Here is some info about the Little Sur Fire today, 12/20/08 and the resulting power outage.
The fire at Little Sur was caused by downed powerline in brush on the south slope of Serra Hill. The fire burned about 8-10 acres and was under control from a combined effort of Big Sur Volunteer Fire and CalFire engines from Cypress and Carmel Highlands stations. One CalFire helicopter made water drops to prevent further spread on the very steep slope. CDF Gabillan Crews did mop up. Big Sur Vol. Fire responded with one engine, one patrol, and one water tender. Two firefighters cut line to gain access through thick riparian brush and prevent spread on the east flank.
PG and E workers relayed to El Sur Ranch that the outage resulting from the fire would last AT LEAST until 2pm Sunday if not further.
The damage to the line running down hill is extensive.”

firefox

James Taylor: “I’ve seen fire and I’ve seen rain …”

Thanks, firefox for keeping me on my toes, again!

 

(Salmon Creek on Monday)

Sorry I haven’t gotten around to posting the notes from the BSMAAC meeting nor updated the Cal-Trans project. I’m a busy lady. Will try to get to that tomorrow.

Two storms headed our way. The first, Sunday afternoon through Monday is not expected to bring as much rain as the Tuesday through Wednesday system.

The predictions for the Tuesday through Friday system coming through have changed, somewhat, and the Tuesday system is expected to come through relatively fast. It is still possible that it will cause some locally heavy rain, but not for the extended period previously predicted. Caution is still advised for those near the burn areas, and it is advisable to keep an eye on the forecasts, as the system gets closer, and predictions.

 

DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST SATURDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS 
ARE IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 
20S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATL IMAGERY INDC THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE DISTRICT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A 
GREAT DEAL OF DIFFICULTY WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN. THE 06Z GFS 
IS NOW MUCH DRIER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE SHORTWAVES 
MORE OF AN INSIDE SLIDER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER WITH THE 
SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINING OFF THE COAST...
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE OCEAN. WITH SUCH A LARGE 
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AS WELL AS LITTLE RUN TO RUN 
CONSISTENCY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
 FORECAST. PER THE HPC DISCUSSION HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF.

Sometimes, I feel like the NWS — only with photos!

Today, Friday, 12/19/08: A Hazardous Weather statement has been issued for next week. It reads pretty much the same as yesterday’s statement, which is reproduced below. 

Thursday, 12/18/08 – This out this afternoon about a system shaping up for next week. Pay close attention. Floods, mud, and debris flow could be in the making.

AND BIG SUR COAST-
 123 PM PST THU DEC 18 2008

 ...STORMY WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE 
FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY 
FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN 
APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 
THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH...TAPPING 
INTO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO OVER 
6000 FEET AS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SLAMS 
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY CONTINUE AT 
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS.

AS THE START OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL FIVE DAYS AWAY
...THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH 
AND TIMING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE IS INCREASING 
CONFIDENCE THAT A PERIOD OF WARMER...VERY WET AND WINDY 
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS THERE WOULD BE A 
THREAT OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...AS WELL AS 
MUD SLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER BURN SCARRED AREAS FROM 
THIS PAST SUMMER`S FIRES. PERSONS IN MONTEREY AND SANTA 
CRUZ COUNTIES WHO ARE NEAR THE BURN AREAS SHOULD PAY VERY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION SINCE IT 
APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS. 
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...VERY WINDY 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY 
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONLOCATIONS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST...STATEMENTS AND 
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS WE APPROACH 
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.