4:00 pm NOAA forecast update: “THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR PASSES OVER THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. ON SAT MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. DURING THIS TIME 850 TEMPS ARE DOWN TO -7C…700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -17 TO -18C… THICKNESSES BELOW 520 DM…AND 500 MB TEMPS PER THE ECMWF AS COLD AS
-39C! IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THEN SNOW LEVELS COULD VERY WELL DROP TO SEA LEVEL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SINCE THIS WOULD BE EXTREMELY UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR (OR ANY TIME DURING THE WINTER) AND IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OFF HAVEN`T PUT IT INTO THE GRIDS. HOWEVER…IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO SEA LEVEL. KEEP TUNED!”

Linda Parker so graciously sent me this photo of Big Sur’s backcountry, taken Saturday. It serves as a great lead-in for this next very meterologically interesting system, which will bring more snow, starting as early as Thursday, and I will be back home by then.

And here is a part of NOAA’s discussion about the next one. Woohoo, could be quite a ride.

“FORECAST BY THURSDAY STARTS TO GET METEOROLOGICALLY INTERESTING. GOING BACK TO LAST WEEK THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RECORD COLD AIR MASS SLIDING DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT.

ANYWAY THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF DEVELOP SHOWERY PRECIP AS EARLY AS 18Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE BAY AREA. LATEST 06Z NAM SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -5 CELSIUS BY 18Z THURSDAY IN THE NORTH BAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 1000 FEET. NO WAY TO HONE IN DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT INITIAL BOUNDARY OF SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY…MAYBE AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN AFTER THE PRECIP HAS SHUT OFF. HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ONE OR TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE BETWEEN 519-523 DM (DEPENDING ON MODEL USED) WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -4 TO -7 CELSIUS RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE BAY AREA. HAVE CURRENTLY PUT SNOW LEVELS NO LOWER THAN 1000 FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE. GRIDS AND TEXT FORECAST WILL SHOW SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS LIKELY ABOVE THIS LEVEL. NO MATTER WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THIS COLD AND UNSETTLED TIME FRAME FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ITS JUST TOO HARD TO NAIL DOWN ANY DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.”

Finally, for those following my personal saga, my mom passed into the light at 12:21 this morning. I had the honor of being with her, and sitting with the body while arrangements for her pronouncement and transportation were made. A large crowd is expected at her funeral tomorrow, and then I will head home to my beloved coastal mountains.

I already sent this to WildBigSur, but just in case, I wanted to get a wide audience – y’all know how I feel about dogs. I am also forwarding to Martha Diehl, another dog person, who can post to the Palo Colorado Canyon list.

Hi, Im new to the area.. I heard there is a website for Big Sur locals for updates and news. I cant find friends of palo colorado’s website/blog. I was hoping you could direct me to the right website or post something on yours
I lost my dog Shawnee on Friday during the storm.. I live in Palo Colorado Canyon. She’s a female, 1 years old, black and white. If you have any information or anywhere I can go to post, it is greatly appreciated.

I attached a picture of her.

Thanks for your time,
Joy
bethanyjoy421@hotmail.com

Soaring Starkey sent me these photos taken yesterday at her place on Coast Ridge at 2800 ft.

Here are some taken yesterday by Sandy Krenkle from Los Burros:

Just a few minutes ago, the CHP reported this:

11:05AM 14 FM 1/COAST RD
11:03AM COVERING NB LANES IN BLIND CORNER
RESPONDING OFFICERS STATUS
11:04AM CHP Unit Assigned

I have no idea what “FM” means,

Here are some wonderful photos of the snow on the mountains of Big Sur from Brandie Kirby of Cal-Trans, Big Sur Station. Thank you so much!!

For late NEXT week: “IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE SNOW DOWN TO SEA LEVEL.”

And a minute ago:
12:22PM HVY SNOW IN AREA
This is Empire Grade and Felton Empire. Lanes closed due to snow, also Empire & Pine Flat.

11:50 Empire Grade in Santa Cruz calling for snow plows:
11:48AM PER NET COM NO SNOW PLOWS, BUT GRADERS ARE ENRT
11:48AM 1039 NET COM
11:46AM REQ SNOW PLOWS
11:46AM 3″ + OF SNOW ON EMP GRADE
11:33AM PER RP TO NET COM **WILL POSS NEED TO BE PLOWED
11:32AM CORR: VEHS SPINNING OUT

10:30 am – you all are going to have fun today!

8:30 am – another mud/rock slide at MM 3.

8 am – South Bound Lane has been opened.

6 am, Saturday, February 19th:
From the CHP website: 3:16AM PER 27-S5 N38 DID A CHECK DOWN TO RAGGED POINT, MULTIPLE ROCK SLIDES BLOCKING LANES, MOST URGENT SLIDE @ MM 1

Given that NOAA is predicting yet ANOTHER inch and 1/2 of rain today, with snow levels down to 2500 ft, this road is not going to clear itself, and may be hard for Cal-Trans to keep up with, but they were on the job at 6 am this morning!

Here is the entire evening:

ADDITIONAL DETAILS
3:16AM PER 27-S5 N38 DID A CHECK DOWN TO RAGGED POINT, MULTIPLE ROCK SLIDES BLOCKING LANES, MOST URGENT SLIDE @ MM 1
2:44AM 1039 27-S5
2:42AM ADV WILL BE 1097 W/ 22G IN APX 5 MINS
2:40AM PALCED ONG CONES AROUND IT
2:40AM BOBERG CALLED F/ MM 3 @ A CALL BOX ADVZ>D THAT @ MM 9 PORTION OF THE NB LANE IS 1125 BY A LG BOULDER APX SIZE OF 5 X 5 ON A STAIGHT AWAY (note: this is Mud Creek)
2:14AM AT NACMIENTO RD MM 18
12:14AM SIG ALERT SENT
12:07AM 1039 SNS COMM
12:02AM 1039 22G LINE 56
12:00AM PER S5 – INFO VIA 27-S1 / REQ SIG ALERT FOR MONTEREY COUNTY / ADV OF PART CLOSURE / SMALL VEHS ABLE TO NEGOTIATE
11:46PM 1039 9-1X
11:42PM 1039 SLO REF LN S 44
11:35PM BOULDER PART 1125 SB LANE ALSO
11:21PM 97 – BOULDERS ACROSS NB LNS / VEH CAN PASS / TOW TK S UNABLE TO GET THRU
11:09PM LATE ENTRY 1039 SLO DISP REF LN S 24,26,27
11:03PM 1039 TO MTY COMM W/ INFO
11:00PM 22G AT WILLOW CREEK ETA 15-20 MINS
11:00PM 1039 DOT JOHN WOOD
9:55PM 1039 22G LINES 21-22
7:33PM 1039 DOT DIST 5 / ADV NEEDS TO CHK W/SUPERVISOR
7:22PM 1039 DOT DSP WILL ADV THEM UP THERE UNK IF THEY WILL GO OUT ON IT THO

The entire state, in effect, is under storm watch for today and tomorrow. Flash flood warnings are going out for many areas here in SoCal.

My SLO forecaster had this to say: ” A cold front stalled over Big Sur last night and produced heavy amounts of rainfall north of Cambria.

Three Peaks in Bug Sur recorded 5.94 inches of rain over the last 24 hours. Rocky Butte near San Simon reported 3.78 inches. Cambria has recorded 1.93 inches. …

Periods of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds will continue through tonight, turning to scattered rain showers (at times heavy) on Saturday as a cold upper-level trough moves over the Central Coast.

Rainfall totals from this system should range between 1 and 1.5 inches in the North County (Paso Robles), 1.5 and 2.5 inches in the coastal valleys (San Luis Obispo) and along the beaches and 2.5 and 5.0 inches along the coastal mountains due to oragraphic enhancement.

Heavy snow above 3,000 feet in the Sierra will occur throughout the day today from north of Blue Canyon south into the souther Yosemite area. Also, heavy rain and snow in the 3,000 and 4,000 foot range will cross into the LA area late this afternoon and tonight with possible heavy snow across the Southern California Mountains.”

Just talked to my son, who is holding down the mountain for me, and it started snowing about 5 pm tonight.

A surf advisory issued this afternoon, and my dear friend Debbie sent me some photos, which I will post below.

I am still in Redondo Beach, and my mother is still hanging in there.

Major storms! Big Sur Valley reported 2 inches this morning. I am in SoCal with my dying mother, but the news reports are pretty amazing about the snow in the Rockies, the Sierras, and the rain every where – my daughter made it across the Rockies last night, just in front of the snow storm, and will hopefully be here this afternoon in time to say good-bye to her grandmother.

Next break in the weather is Sunday, looks like. Be safe, all.

Ah, time for a change. We had exceptional weather most of this year, so far, but that is about to change.

From NOAA: “A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN TOMORROW IN EARNEST ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS THE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES A SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE UNSTABLE AND COOL ONE. BY SUNDAY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE STATE. RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH A STRONGER AND COLDER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. A COLD UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. BY WEEK`S END…A COLD UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.”

And from my SLO forecaster: “The cold front will cross the Central Coast north to south Monday night into Tuesday morning with scattered rain showers. Southerly winds will increase through the day Monday and will become gusty Monday night into Tuesday as the front passes.

Rain showers and gusty southwesterly winds will continue through Wednesday as an upper-level trough passes over our area. At this time, rainfall totals should range between 0.50 and 1.25 inches. Snow is expected across the Sierra, with snow levels initially at 6,500 feet, then dropping to 3,000 feet or possibly lower by Wednesday. Maximum temperatures late in the week next week will only range from the low to mid-50s, with minimums in the 30’s to low 40’s.

A break in the wet weather should develop on Thursday. However, another but stronger storm system is forecast to reach the Central Coast next Friday with gale force southerly winds and periods of heavy rain. Wet and cool weather could continue through the end of February, and possibly into early March.”