1.3″ of rain today, .9″ last night for a total of 10″ so far this month. 10″ in 12 days. That’s considerable.
Going back through my records for the prior three years, I find that in January of 1995 we had 13.85″ by 1/12, none in 1996 and only 7.5″ in 1997 (although we had 44.45″ when we started January.) March of 1995 brought us 14.5″ in the first 12 days, so we are up there with the best of my prior recorded storms.
Reports aren’t quite consistent about when they will open, but some reports have it opening as early as Sunday afternoon. The biggest storm seems to be anticipated for Tuesday. Here is one graphic from Daniel Swain of Weather West:
My SLO forecaster writes:
“A major change in the weather pattern is underway as the
jet stream/storm track drops farther southward, increases
in speed and takes a more direct route across the Pacific
toward California.
These Upper-level winds will direct a series of low pressure
systems of varying strength into the Central Coast through
the first part of January, if not longer. Starting Sunday,
each day of the upcoming week is expected to receive
measurable precipitation. Total rainfall amounts for this
upcoming week are expected to range between 3 and 4 inches
with higher amounts in the Santa Lucia mountains.”
And here is one from NOAA showing the anticipated rainfall amounts:
From Daniel Swain, of Westher West, where the full report can be found Here, comes this report:
“The area along of just north of the jet stream is a favorable position for storm development and intensification. Usually, California is located near the regional minimum of jet stream strength as it veers northward, but the imminent pattern shift will create a situation in which storms are much more likely to maintain their open-ocean strength or even strengthen as the approach California from the west. There is very strong multi-model support for an extended period (of at least 3 weeks, starting on Sunday) of greatly enhanced storminess and widespread precipitation throughout California.
A powerful and likely El Niño-influenced subtropical jet will develop over and south of California, creating a favorable condition for significant precipitation. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)
A powerful and likely El Niño-influenced subtropical jet will develop over and south of California, creating a favorable condition for significant precipitation. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)
I won’t even attempt to be specific regarding the details of individual storms at this point, since California’s favorable position to the north of a very strong subtropical jet leads to large instability in model solutions due to the much faster growth rate of storm systems than would typically be the case here (and, therefore, we should all expect forecasts to bounce around quite a bit in the coming days). But the screaming message, at this point, is that quite a few storms will affect California over the next 2-3 weeks. Not all of them will be strong, but some of them probably will be. Some may preferentially affect the northern part of the state; others will focus on the far southern region. But it seems very likely at this point that virtually all of California will significant, perhaps heavy, precipitation. Some of these systems may also bring strong winds and even some vigorous convective activity (thunderstorms), but these details are even harder to ascertain more than a few days in advance.”
There are reports that the annual migration south has begun. Given traffic hazard reports, it seems everyone is out looking. Here is a CHP traffic hazard report re Rocky Point area:
1:26 PM 1 [1] LOTS OF VEHS 1125 BOTH NB AND SB SIDE
Be careful out there … I noticed lots and lots of tourists Sunday at JP Burns (ignoring cones, fog lines, other traffic), Bixby (ignoring no parking signs), Hurricane Point, Garapatta, and all points northerly, many seemingly ready to prove Darwin right.
9:00 am – There is no expected opening time for the freeway, so if you are traveling north or south, alternate routes are recommended. This fire has been crazy last night and this morning with embers described as hockey pucks being blown across all lanes of the 101. The fire has burned 1100 acres, threatened many homes. The CHP website reports:
8:24 AM 19 [22] SR 166 FROM SANTA MARIA OVER TO THE I-5 IS OPEN AND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE FOR TRAVELERS HEADED SOUTH
4:49 AM 18 [20] 1039 C20
4:49 AM 17 [19] ^31-S4 – IT IS NOT RECOMMEND THAT TRACTOR TRAILERS USE THE 150
4:39 AM 16 [16] ^ALL FRWY CLOSURES FOR UNKN DURATION AT THIS TIME***
4:39 AM 15 [15] ^FURTHER MEDIA INQUIRY MAY BE MADE w/ VCFD
4:38 AM 14 [14] ^PRESS CONFERENCE SCHEDULED FOR 1000 HRS AT ICP VENTURA COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS
4:37 AM 13 [13] ^NEXT BRIEFING AT 0900 HRS
4:26 AM 12 [12] ^SB PCH AT SEACLIFF – CLOSED
4:26 AM 11 [11] ^NB PCH AT EMMA WOOD – CLOSED (FIRE TOO CLOSE TO HAVE A MANNED CLOSURE IN PLACE)
4:26 AM 10 [10] ^SEACLIFF ONR TO SB 101 – CT MANNED HARD CLOSURE IN PLACE
4:26 AM 9 [9] ^MUSSEL SHOALS ONR TO SB 101 – CT MANNED HARD CLOSURE IN PLACE
4:26 AM 8 [8] ^BATES RD ONR TO SB 101 – CT MANNED HARD CLOSURE IN PLACE
4:26 AM 7 [7] ^SR150 ONR TO SB 101 – CT MANNED HARD CLOSURE IN PLACE
4:26 AM 6 [6] ^SB 101 AT SR150 – FULL CT HARD CLOSURE IN PLACE // TRAFFIC CURRENTLY BEING DIVERTED TO SR150
4:25 AM 5 [5] ^W MAIN ST at PEKING ST – VPD MANNED CLOSURE
4:25 AM 4 [4] ^W MAIN ONR TO NB 101 – CLOSED
4:25 AM 3 [3] ^SB 33 TO NB 101 TRANS – CONE CLOSURE w/ CHP UNIT 97
4:25 AM 2 [2] ^NB 101 AT SR33 – CT MANNED HARD CLOSURE IN PLACE // TRAFFIC CURRENTLY BEING DIVERTED TO SR33
4:25 AM 1 [1] ^INFO FOR THE PUBLIC/MEDIA – CLOSURES IN PLACE DUE TO THE SOLIMAR FIRE
Graphic by Dan Danbom
5:00 am – Rocks and Debris all up and down Highway One, but no specific closure listed on CHP. It sounds like a mess, and since the entries, shortly after midnight, I suspect there are closures that are not reported.
Woke at 4:30 am to the sound of pouring rain on a metal roof. That can be, and was, very loud. Went to my weather station to see I had received 1.10″ for the day – since midnight – what about between my last reading at 10:15 and midnight? With a little math from the last monthly reading and current monthly reading, I got a total of 3.14″ for the day, plus the current daily 1.10 inches, we are up to 4.25″, or 11.97″ for the year – probably 12″ now in the time it took me to type this. Oh, yes, I’d say El Niño is here.
It has been poring all night. By 8:30 pm, my weather station read 1.99″, and by 9:30 pm, it read 2.37″ and it is still raining cats and dogs – as my weather station likes to Point out.
At the 6:30, I am up to 1.25″ – much more than expected!
And as of 3:30 pm, I have 3/4″ for today, the Solstice.
For those of us who run our systems on solar power (and the human body is one) it is a happy day – knowing that while today is the shortest day/longest night of the year in the northern hemisphere, it also signals that beginning tomorrow, our days will get longer. Today, if I want to wash clothes, I must run the genie, also charging the discharged batteries.
As for weather, I have received .37″ as of 8 am. My SLO weather caster has this to say: “The sun will reach its southernmost point of the year this evening and usher in winter at 8:48 p.m. As if on cue, a weak cold front will gradually move southward and produce cloudy skies and light
rain later this morning into Tuesday afternoon throughout the
Central Coast. Snow levels with the mild system will remain above
6,000 feet today before rising to around 7,000 feet Tuesday.”
I am hoping Wednesday is the break in the rain I need to go get my yearly blood work done. Keep that thought!
