Rain & Road, 2/3/17

7:30 am – it was quiet last night, then Just before 3 am, the cats & dogs started pounding on the roof. The South Coast 24 hour rain amounts are 2.84″ at Chalk Peak, 3.15″ at Three Peaks, and 2.74″ at Mining Ridge. That’s a lot of rain for 24 hours on saturated ground. We will be seeing movement from this. The CHP website log hasn’t been updated since yesterday at 9:46 am, so will have to wait to see what CHP, CT, or locals have to say, but it can’t be good out there with this much rain.

From Meterologist John Lindsey: “Another but stronger low-pressure system will bring
increasing clouds and rain showers Sunday evening and night. As the associated a cold front approaches the Central Coast, the southerly winds will increase to moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph) levels on Monday. This system is forecast to tap into a large plume of subtropical moisture. Consequently, 2 and 3 inches of rain may fall on Monday with higher amounts in the coastal mountains.” BTW, Rocky Butte got over 4″ in the last 24 hours. (Up in the mountains behind and north of Hearst Castle)

Mud Creek Photos, 1/30/17-2/1/17 by Rock Knocker

These first one at of the back side and top of Mud Creek. He helped me mark them up this morning so my readers can tell what they are seeing. Doesn’t look like much to the uninitiated, and I admit, some of it I couldn’t see until he pointed it out. Look closely.

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Roadside pics below were taken at the line behind the ridge and are posted below in a slide show. The arrow below that shows the direction of movement. The ? Is where Ralph thinks what Cal Trans is identifying as a “new spring” is coming from, but he can’t be certain without hiking it, which his knees no longer allow. In any event, it is probably not a “new” Spring but an “old” spring that has reactivated.

The slide show below is of photos Rock Knocker took yesterday. These markings are my own, after he and I looked at the photos together. I am not an expert. I may not have identified them all, and some of them may not be identified correctly, but I just based my markings on what I could see and what Rock Knocker has pointed out to me over the last 25 years of road watching. I hope this gives you some idea of what is going on.

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This next slide show does not need markings for you to recognize what you are seeing:

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Rain & Road, 2/2/17

9:46 am – closure back in place at Ragged Point on the south end.
9:46 AM 8 [10] 27-N24 OPEN F/RAGGED PT TO LIMEKILN / CLOSURE BACK IN PLACE @ RAGGED PT [Shared]

8:30 am – Consistent with what Cal Trans put out last night – From the CHP log:
6:10 AM 5 [5] OVERNIGHT CLOSURES **SR1 WILL REMAIN CLOSED OVERNIGHT FRM RAGGED POINT (SLO MM 72.87) TO DLOAN POINT (MONT MM 29.70) AND ALSO WILL REMAIN CLOSED IF IT IS RAINING DUE TO THE INSTABILITY OF THE ROCK/MUD SLIDES.

Rain down here 1.38″ at Anderson Peak and 1.5″ at Three Peaks. NOAA says: “Wet start to the year looks to stay in place at least through mid-month.” Rain on and off throughout the day, with another system coming in tonight through Friday, then a bit of a break on Saturday, and another system Sun-Mon.

(this post will be updated throughout the day as needed, but new post with CT update, when received.)

Cal Trans Update #2, 2/1/17

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Pictures of Mud Creek today, with spring flowing at north end.

A quick update for you:

The drillers are coming tonight to Mud Creek (PM 8.8). They want to determine if the weather is safe for them to be working. They are very busy with slides all over the west and are squeezing us in. If we don’t work with them this week, we may not get them back for months, so construction crews have been instructed to support them and if it is safe to let vehicles through while we are working, then they will. If we start to encounter mud slides, we will shut the roadway down to traffic and do our best to support the drillers, to allow for the road/slide repairs.

Susana Z. Cruz nature-flower-blue-motif[1]
Caltrans District 5
Acting Manager
Public Information Office

Cal Trans Update, 2/1/17

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Mud Creek with new spring on north end

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131419 shows flagging at mud creek (PM 8.8) and a new spring has started flowing at the north end.

115608 shows mangled infrastructure we just dug out of the slide at cow cliff (PM 28.35)

***NEW INFORMATION***

DURING DAYTIME HOURS ONLY:

*All Motorists may travel north on Hwy. 1 from Cambria to Limekiln Creek Bridge (PM 21.3) or south on Hwy. 1 from Carmel to Dolan Pt. (PM 29.70).

*We have a failed culvert at 14.4, just north of Sand Dollar Beach (PM 13.85), requiring Caltrans to have daytime one-way traffic control and flagging at three locations: 1) at Mud Creek (PM 8.8), 2) just north of Sand Dollar Beach at PM 14.4 and 3) at Paul’s Slide (PM 21.6).

*Locals may travel north today on Hwy. 1 from Cambria to just south of Big Creek Bridge (PM 28)*

The roadway is not passable between Big Creek (PM 28.09) and Dolan Pt. (PM 29.70).

OVERNIGHT CLOSURES: Hwy. 1 will remain closed overnight from Ragged Point (SLO 72.87) to Dolan Pt. (MON. 29.70) and also if it is raining, due to the instability of the rock/mud slides.

Thank you for your patience and understanding. Our Maintenance and Geotech crews have been working diligently, clearing, cleaning, and scaling as much as safely possible in response to these rock/mudslides.

Another update will be provided tomorrow noontime, Thursday, Feb. 2, or sooner if conditions change.

Susana Z. Cruz nature-flower-blue-motif[1]
Caltrans District 5
Public Information Officer/
Portavoz de Relaciones Públicas
para Caltrans en el Distrito 5
805.549.3138
805.549.3326–fax
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Cal Trans provides lengthy analysis of several trouble spots

Thank you, Susana, this is very thoughtful and informative. I, for one, really appreciate it.

Good morning everyone,

Our noontime update for all Hwy. 1 is coming; however, this is a much lengthier explanation from Geotech/Maintenance Design for you as locals…that may “see” the roadway better than it actually is.

From the south, then:

PM 8.9 is very rough. The pavement has heaved up like very large speed bumps, at three distinct spots. This will be a challenge for any low riding vehicles. This location has only dirt haul work going on today into early next week when we will have a driller on site taking up one lane, under one way traffic, controlled by flaggers. Keeping in mind that if it is raining, we will not be on site. Also, possibly middle of next week, pipe culvert materials may be arriving for replacing the two failed culverts at the southerly end of Mud Creek landslide. This will require excavation of what could be a rocky fill to get to the old culverts. They are about 8 feet deep, but the possibility for rocks in the fill might make it difficult to span the excavation with steel plates and allow for vehicle passages during these 2-day operations (for each cross culvert). Again, we do not yet have these culvert pipes on site yet and they could be arriving later than next week, so we will keep you posted on that. Drilling is expected to take 6 days, once it begins and weather permitting. They have delayed their start a couple of times and as of my latest info, we are expecting them to being Tuesday, 7Feb2016

PM 14.4, Culvert replacement JNO Sand Dollar is starting today. This too is a shallow culvert and we expect to be done here by the end of this week, weather permitting. Flagging is protecting the work here and steel plates are on site to allow for vehicles to go through. If all goes well, this should be a three day operation.

PM 21.6, Paul’s slide has only one lane available to traffic. We are supposed to have one way traffic controlled by flaggers today and each day the crews are working. The dirt haul from Mud Creek is to Willow ck. and I believe they are also moving spoils from Paul’s slide to willow ck., too.

PM 28.3, Cow Cliff has a large hole in the rock fall netting. The pavement has been repaired and most of the slide material has been moved off of the surface of the travel way, so the road appears to be open. However, with the netting down and more weather coming, we are offering no assurances that more rocks and material will not come down onto the road. There is hard closure at Dolan Pt. (for southbound traffic) and Maintenance is supposed to have placed one at the Big Creek Bridge (for the northbound). To clarify our delay in starting work here, the chute above the damaged netting cannot be scaled, as we’ve done at other sites. It is outside of what would be considered okay for worker safety. The materials for this repair are being ordered now and this highly technical installation will begin as soon as materials begin arriving. The contractor is standing by.

On last reminder, if it is raining we will not be on site. There is too much unstable material above and below the roadway at mud creek and at Paul’s slide. The road will be closed during rain from Ragged Pt. (SLO 72.87) to Dolan Pt. (PM 29.7)

Susana Z. Cruz nature-flower-blue-motif[1]
Caltrans District 5
Acting Manager
Public Information Office

Upcoming Storms

Current, 1/31/17, predicts for late Wednesday (tomorrow) through Friday indicate:

“By that point rainfall amounts will likely range from 2.5″ to 5″ for higher elevation spots with many urban locations in the .75″ to 1.50″ range. Thankfully local rivers and streams have greatly receded due to several dry days (and recent warmer weather), which will provide a buffer against the first round of rain.”

Then Sunday night through Monday is slated to bring:

“This will lead to a higher risk for flooding. Early numbers indicate that urban locations can expect another 1/2″ to 1.25″ with higher elevation spots generally in the 1.5″-3″ range.

Rain will change back to showers later on Monday with a third system indicated on the GFS for Tuesday (ECMWF shows dry weather).”

New Update, 1/30/17

***NEW INFORMATION, BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING, TUESDAY, JAN. 31***

DURING DAYTIME HOURS ONLY: Motorists may travel north on Hwy. 1 from Cambria to Limekiln Creek Bridge (PM 21.3) or south on Hwy. 1 from Carmel to Dolan Pt. (PM 29.70). *

*We have a failed culvert just north of Sand Dollar Beach at PM 14.4, requiring Caltrans to have daytime one-way traffic control and flagging at two locations: 1) at Mud Creek (PM 8.8) and 2) just north of Sand Dollar Beach (PM 14.4).

OVERNIGHT CLOSURES: Hwy. 1 will remain closed overnight from Ragged Point (SLO 72.87) to Dolan Pt. (MON. 29.70)

The roadway is not passable between Paul’s Slide (PM 21.6) and Big Creek (PM 28.09).

Thank you for your patience and understanding. Our Maintenance and Geotech crews have been working diligently, clearing, cleaning, and scaling as much as safely possible in response to these rock/mudslides.

Another update will be provided tomorrow afternoon, Tuesday, Jan. 31, or sooner if conditions change.

Susana Z. Cruz nature-flower-blue-motif[1]
Caltrans District 5
Public Information Officer

Cal Trans Update, 1/30/17

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Photo of Anderson Creek Slide (PM 35.4), after being cleared on Saturday afternoon, Jan. 28.

Thank you for your patience and understanding. Our Maintenance and Geotech crews have been working diligently, clearing, cleaning, and scaling as much as safely possible in response to these rock/mudslides.

***SAME INFORMATION AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON***

*We have cleared the slide at Anderson Cyn (PM 35.4), but still have numerous slides between the closure points, the largest being at: Mud Creek (PM 8.88), Paul’s Slide (PM 21.6) and Big Creek (PM 28.09).

All Motorists may travel south on Hwy. 1 from Carmel to Dolan Pt. (PM 29.70)
or travel north from Cambria to Ragged Point.

CHP is monitoring the closure at Dolan Pt.

Another update will be provided Tuesday, Jan. 31 around noontime, or sooner if conditions change.

Susana Z. Cruz
Caltrans District 5
Public Information Officer/

Now, to offer my own personal observations. I saw Mud Creek yesterday with Rock Knocker. He was quite concerned at what he saw and is afraid we will lose the road there. The mountain is moving and the geologists have left all sorts of markings so they can check the timing and amount of movement going on. The road is buckled in 3 places. One crack has water running into it and out the West Bank causing considerable erosion. At the Duck Pond, just the next historical slide to the south a 1/4 mile or so, there is a 36″ pipe that goes under the road and disperses the water running into the large drain. That pipe is disgorging what appears to be hundreds of gallons a minute. I an not a good judge of this, but to give you an idea, much of this water was going straight out this very large pipe, not down at all. If Rock Knocker feels up to it (he gave me this darned flu) he is going up to the top and hopes to take photos for me and explain them so I can post a more informed, factually-based opinion tomorrow.

Some uninformed people seem to be of the opinion that since the road is “cleared” people should be allowed through. (The Chamber posted a photo provided by Treebones yesterday, but that may not infer that they are “encouraging” traffic.) That is extremely dangerous thinking. This spot is far from safe, and no unnecessary travel through it should be encouraged. When she goes, she will bury anything in her path. I wouldn’t want to contribute to anyone getting injured. Do you?

Weather: A look back, a look ahead

So far for January

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And for what is coming:

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And NOAA forecast discussion from this am:

Longer range models are still bringing rain chances back to Northern California by the middle of next week. The GFS starts to increase southerly winds ahead of the system by early Wednesday morning with rain beginning in the North Bay by mid morning and
spreading south into the rest of the district by the afternoon. The GFS brings a secondary punch of moisture through Wednesday night, with showers ending by late Thursday. The 00z ECMWF delays the onset of precipitation by about 12 hours, but also ends the
precip by late Friday. While excessive rainfall is not expected with this system, given that soils are still saturated from copious recent rainfall, there is the possibility of at least
minor hydro issues and slides. In addition, winds with this system may be quite strong and gusty, particularly from late Wednesday into Thursday.

And here is the satellite photo sent in by Dave Allen:

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