Incoming Storm System, 12/15/18

From NOAA Forecast Discussion - button up!
(new editing format by WP is resulting in formatting issues.
I hate when wp decides to change what works for something that doesn’t)
”Unlike previous storm system this one will have plenty of moisture to work with.
Latest TPW imagery puts values of 1-1.5" or 150-200% percent of normal.
Simply put there is moisture to work with.
Atmospheric River guidance has been rather consistent
for several days now indicating IVT over 500 kg/m/s,
which would fall into the moderate category
and be one of the stronger ARs of the 2018 season.

Once the upper level TROUGH arrives Sunday afternoon it will
help to push the FRONT through the region.
Additionally, the upper level TROUGH will increase upper level support and increase overall INSTABILITY.
Model guidance shows rather decent surface and mid- level INSTABILITY Sunday afternoon through early Monday.
Decided to add a 15-20% CHC of thunderstorms with the FROPA.
It should be noted that the Storm Prediction Center
has a large portion of CA in a general mention
of thunder Sunday into Monday.
Given the landfalling AR and convective potential
there could be a brief period of moderate to heavy rainfall
leading to minor flooding/ponding on roads and urban areas.
A more showery regime will set up late Sunday night over northern areas behind the FRONT and then slowly spread S and E Monday afternoon.
Rainfall totals tonight through Monday will be greatest over the North Bay and coastal mountains 1-3" - locally 3+" North Bay Peaks and Santa Lucias.”
Repeat: Locally, over 3” in the Santa Lucias.

Snow expected today

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The above photo was taken up on Long Ridge by Zachary.

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7:30 am – there is a light dusting of snow already, but more coming. Check out that blue making its way down the Big Sur coast!

I woke early, and checked the temp, 30 degrees, checked outside, and saw stars, checked online, and found this:

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Winter Weather Advisory for Santa Lucia Mtns above 2000′

Gee, that’s me! Guess I’m not going anywhere tomorrow! Guess it is time to stock up my wood box, and make sure the windows are up in the Jeep … Oh, and better charge the batteries on my camera, too!

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS
PADRES NATIONAL FOREST ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR THURSDAY…

.A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…BRINGING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
HILLS…MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FEET. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS
AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM PST
THURSDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY.

* TIMING: THURSDAY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM PST.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE 2000 FEET. 1 INCH
POSSIBLE DOWN TO 1500 FEET.

* IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH AREAS OF SNOW ON HIGHER
ELEVATION ROADS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR COLD TEMPERATURES.
******************************************************************************************

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
242 PM PST WED JAN 9 2013

…SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD WEATHER FOR OUR AREA…
…ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE
SANTA LUCIA RANGE IN MONTEREY COUNTY….

.DISCUSSION…AS OF 2:30 PM PST WEDNESDAY…SATL IMAGERY IS INDC
THAT A COLD FRONT IS POISED JUST NORTH OF THE DISTRICT. IR IMAGERY
IS INDC PLENTY OF COLD CU BEHIND THE FRONT.

THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE DISTRICT…IN
FACT…SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER IS ON TAP LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM…THE VERY COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY…WITH THE LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW THERE WILL BE DECENT UPSLOPE…IN PARTICULAR IN THE SANTA
LUCIA RANGE. THEREFORE…HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS…WHERE 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE (PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOR DETAILS). THERE COULD LOCALLY BE 1 INCH DOWN TO 1500 FEET IN
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AS WELL…BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.