Tag: Winds

NWS Weekend Forecast update

This is by far the worst prediction 20-24″ in TWO days?? *(Insert favorite swear word here)

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…Strong storm still on track to impact our region… (I’ve edited this to make it more specific for our area, but deleting SF Info.) NOTE: Remember, watch is to signify that the even is likely, but WARNING MEANS IT IS EMINENT.

UPDATE
· In general the forecast is generally the same as yesterday.
· Flash flood watch has been posted.
· Wind advisory and high wind watch is now in effect.

IMPACTS

*Impact 1 (Rain and Flooding) :
· Widespread rainfall through the weekend.
· 2 1/2″ to 4 1/2″ for most urban areas.
· 5-10″ for higher elevation spots. Locally higher amounts possible.
· Urban and small stream flooding is likely with the potential for stream and river flooding.
· Please see attached image for locations for the Flash Flood Watch and the rain forecast.

*Impact 2 (Wind):
· Southerly winds of 20 to 35 mph can be expected with local gusts over 50 mph possible. Higher elevation locations could see gusts over 60 mph.
· Drought stressed trees and weaken roots due to wet soil may fall down as a result of these wind speeds.
· Please see the attached images for wind speed forecasts.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories as of 3 pm Friday:
WFO San Francisco/Monterey – MTR (Back to Top)
Outlook
Jan 07 1:00pm PST
Monterey
County

High Wind Warning
· Santa Lucia Mountains
Expires in: 22h 2m
Jan 07 1:00pm PST

Flash Flood Watch
· Santa Lucia Mountains
Expires in: 61h 2m
Jan 09 4:00am PST

Small Craft Advisory
· Pigeon Pt to Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
· Monterey Bay
Expires in: 42h 2m
Jan 08 9:00am PST

Wind Advisory
· Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast
· Northern Salinas Hollister & Carmel Vlys
Expires in: 22h 2m

High Wind Warning
· Santa Cruz Mountains
Expires in: 37h 2m
Jan 08 4:00am PST

Flash Flood Watch
· San Francisco Bay Shore
· Santa Cruz Mountains
· San Francisco Penn Coast

High Wind Warning
· Santa Cruz Mountains
Expires in: 37h 2m
Jan 08 4:00am PST

Flash Flood Watch
· Santa Clara Valley
· Santa Cruz Mountains
· Northern Monterey Bay
· San Francisco Penn Coast
Expires in: 56h 2m
Jan 08 11:00pm PST

Small Craft Advisory
· Monterey Bay
Expires in: 42h 2m
Jan 08 9:00am PST

Wind Advisory
· Northern Monterey Bay
· San Francisco Penn Coast
· Santa Clara Valley
Expires in: 22h 2m

· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW

FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Precipitation: Moderate to High
· Wind: Moderate to High

TIMING
· Through the weekend for both rainfall and winds.
· Flooding concern will continue into Monday.

LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region.

Urgent Fire Weather Message

URGENT – FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
206 PM PST THU JAN 23 2014

CAZ511-512-517-518-241015-
/O.EXA.KMTR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140124T2100Z/
EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK-
206 PM PST THU JAN 23 2014

…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR ALL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 1000 FEET…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 511 EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO
RANGE…FIRE ZONE 512 SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS…FIRE ZONE 517
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST…FIRE
ZONE 518 MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY
INCLUDING PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK.

* TIMING: UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* WIND: EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER
THE RIDGES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* HUMIDITY: STEADY FROM 12 TO 25 PERCENT DURING THE DURATION OF
THE WARNING.

* IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS…GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE
ANY NEW IGNITIONS WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW…OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS…LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

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It is gusting up to 35 mph on a regular basis up here.

Fire Weather

.FIRE WEATHER…AS OF 1:32 PM WEDNESDAY…WATCHES HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS. WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
HILLS GOES INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM AND RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WARNING FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS…MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO HILLS
STARTS THURSDAY AT 1 PM AND ALSO CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WARNING IS TIMED TO START WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE NAPA HILLS AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY HILLS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RH VALUES WILL
START OUT MOIST/HIGH INITIALLY BUT SOME CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD
BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IN FAVORABLE SINKING REGION OF COLD
ADVECTION. FREQUENT WINDS GUSTS 30-45 MPH WITH A NORTHEAST AND DRY
DIRECTION. RH VALUES WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WILL WINDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT
WONT BE AS STRONG WHILE RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR. WARM TO HOT AND
DRY FRIDAY WITH EASING OFFSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON.