Tag: NWS

NWS Forecast Update, 1/7/17

And lastly, this from NOAA tonight:

img_1756

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey California

Updated Rainfall Totals: Significant rainfall is still forecast to occur through Monday afternoon. Here is our current thinking of how much rainfall will fall over the next 48 hours or so. 2-4″ will be likely for most urban areas across the SF/Monterey Bay Areas. Be extra cautious when driving this weekend. Ponding and flooding of roads will be a big threat. Do not try to drive through flooded roads. Stay safe.

img_1751

Rain and Road Reports, 1/7/17

9 pm – and yet another one:

Incident: 00348 Type: Roadway Flooding Location: 47200 Sr1 Loc Desc: FERNWOOD RIVER AREA Lat/Lon: 36.303039 -121.880112
Detail Information
NO DETAILS

Incident: 00168 Type: Roadway Flooding Location: Sr1 / Andrew Molera State Park Loc Desc: Lat/Lon: 36.288901 -121.846554
Detail Information
12:31 PM 1 [2] 1039 CALTRANS

Noon – Three Peaks and Chalk Peak up to almost 2″

11:15 – Elkhorn Slough Rd. Expected to be closed for a month due to sink hole.

11 am – Paul’s slide puked again:

Incident: 00125 Type: Road/Weather Conditions Location: X Loc Desc: Lat/Lon: 0:0
Detail Information
10:56 AM 1 [1] SLIDE JSO LUCIA BACK AGAIN / CT 1097 / WORKING TO CLR THE RD

9:30 – So, I have posted the 20″ in 2 days model of the NAM, the 40″ in 10 days NCEP and now here is the third model, GFS. They all seem to be in agreement that we are due to be hammered. This was originally an animated GIF, but I can’t post those here, and haven’t figured out how to post to FB so here are a couple of screen shots. BTW, at 9 am, over an inch at Big Sur Station, Chalk Peak, and Three Peaks. Black Cone was at 1 and 1/2″

img_1746img_1747

5:30 am – Big Sur starts out the day with:

“As of 5 am about 0.50 inches of rain in Big Sur, 0.12 in downtown San Francisco and 0.25 around Santa Rosa. #CAStorm” per NWS. Per automatic gauges, Mining Ridge has .47″, Three Peaks has .51″ and Chalk Peak is missing its data. The heaviest rain is expected tonight into Sunday morning.

High Wind Advisories in effect through tomorrow. Howling pretty good up here.

NWS Weekend Forecast update

This is by far the worst prediction 20-24″ in TWO days?? *(Insert favorite swear word here)

img_1743

img_1742

…Strong storm still on track to impact our region… (I’ve edited this to make it more specific for our area, but deleting SF Info.) NOTE: Remember, watch is to signify that the even is likely, but WARNING MEANS IT IS EMINENT.

UPDATE
· In general the forecast is generally the same as yesterday.
· Flash flood watch has been posted.
· Wind advisory and high wind watch is now in effect.

IMPACTS

*Impact 1 (Rain and Flooding) :
· Widespread rainfall through the weekend.
· 2 1/2″ to 4 1/2″ for most urban areas.
· 5-10″ for higher elevation spots. Locally higher amounts possible.
· Urban and small stream flooding is likely with the potential for stream and river flooding.
· Please see attached image for locations for the Flash Flood Watch and the rain forecast.

*Impact 2 (Wind):
· Southerly winds of 20 to 35 mph can be expected with local gusts over 50 mph possible. Higher elevation locations could see gusts over 60 mph.
· Drought stressed trees and weaken roots due to wet soil may fall down as a result of these wind speeds.
· Please see the attached images for wind speed forecasts.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories as of 3 pm Friday:
WFO San Francisco/Monterey – MTR (Back to Top)
Outlook
Jan 07 1:00pm PST
Monterey
County

High Wind Warning
· Santa Lucia Mountains
Expires in: 22h 2m
Jan 07 1:00pm PST

Flash Flood Watch
· Santa Lucia Mountains
Expires in: 61h 2m
Jan 09 4:00am PST

Small Craft Advisory
· Pigeon Pt to Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
· Monterey Bay
Expires in: 42h 2m
Jan 08 9:00am PST

Wind Advisory
· Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast
· Northern Salinas Hollister & Carmel Vlys
Expires in: 22h 2m

High Wind Warning
· Santa Cruz Mountains
Expires in: 37h 2m
Jan 08 4:00am PST

Flash Flood Watch
· San Francisco Bay Shore
· Santa Cruz Mountains
· San Francisco Penn Coast

High Wind Warning
· Santa Cruz Mountains
Expires in: 37h 2m
Jan 08 4:00am PST

Flash Flood Watch
· Santa Clara Valley
· Santa Cruz Mountains
· Northern Monterey Bay
· San Francisco Penn Coast
Expires in: 56h 2m
Jan 08 11:00pm PST

Small Craft Advisory
· Monterey Bay
Expires in: 42h 2m
Jan 08 9:00am PST

Wind Advisory
· Northern Monterey Bay
· San Francisco Penn Coast
· Santa Clara Valley
Expires in: 22h 2m

· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW

FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Precipitation: Moderate to High
· Wind: Moderate to High

TIMING
· Through the weekend for both rainfall and winds.
· Flooding concern will continue into Monday.

LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region.