Tag: floods

NWS Weekend Forecast update

This is by far the worst prediction 20-24″ in TWO days?? *(Insert favorite swear word here)

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…Strong storm still on track to impact our region… (I’ve edited this to make it more specific for our area, but deleting SF Info.) NOTE: Remember, watch is to signify that the even is likely, but WARNING MEANS IT IS EMINENT.

UPDATE
· In general the forecast is generally the same as yesterday.
· Flash flood watch has been posted.
· Wind advisory and high wind watch is now in effect.

IMPACTS

*Impact 1 (Rain and Flooding) :
· Widespread rainfall through the weekend.
· 2 1/2″ to 4 1/2″ for most urban areas.
· 5-10″ for higher elevation spots. Locally higher amounts possible.
· Urban and small stream flooding is likely with the potential for stream and river flooding.
· Please see attached image for locations for the Flash Flood Watch and the rain forecast.

*Impact 2 (Wind):
· Southerly winds of 20 to 35 mph can be expected with local gusts over 50 mph possible. Higher elevation locations could see gusts over 60 mph.
· Drought stressed trees and weaken roots due to wet soil may fall down as a result of these wind speeds.
· Please see the attached images for wind speed forecasts.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories as of 3 pm Friday:
WFO San Francisco/Monterey – MTR (Back to Top)
Outlook
Jan 07 1:00pm PST
Monterey
County

High Wind Warning
· Santa Lucia Mountains
Expires in: 22h 2m
Jan 07 1:00pm PST

Flash Flood Watch
· Santa Lucia Mountains
Expires in: 61h 2m
Jan 09 4:00am PST

Small Craft Advisory
· Pigeon Pt to Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
· Monterey Bay
Expires in: 42h 2m
Jan 08 9:00am PST

Wind Advisory
· Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast
· Northern Salinas Hollister & Carmel Vlys
Expires in: 22h 2m

High Wind Warning
· Santa Cruz Mountains
Expires in: 37h 2m
Jan 08 4:00am PST

Flash Flood Watch
· San Francisco Bay Shore
· Santa Cruz Mountains
· San Francisco Penn Coast

High Wind Warning
· Santa Cruz Mountains
Expires in: 37h 2m
Jan 08 4:00am PST

Flash Flood Watch
· Santa Clara Valley
· Santa Cruz Mountains
· Northern Monterey Bay
· San Francisco Penn Coast
Expires in: 56h 2m
Jan 08 11:00pm PST

Small Craft Advisory
· Monterey Bay
Expires in: 42h 2m
Jan 08 9:00am PST

Wind Advisory
· Northern Monterey Bay
· San Francisco Penn Coast
· Santa Clara Valley
Expires in: 22h 2m

· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW

FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Precipitation: Moderate to High
· Wind: Moderate to High

TIMING
· Through the weekend for both rainfall and winds.
· Flooding concern will continue into Monday.

LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region.

Flooding Photos

TODAY”S FORECAST: NOAA is predicting .38 inch of rain between 4 pm and 10 pm today for the Big Sur area. See 2008 Winter Conditions to the right for the new NOAA forecast map, just sent by Charles Bell of NWS in Monterey.

These photos of the Grange and Debbie’s house and yard were sent to me this morning. What a mess, huh?

Read Debbie’s Story under Storm Watch, 11/2/08, below, or click on post to the right.

The Grange and Parking Lot

Debbie’s Yard. This was a garden that was on the Hidden Valley Garden Tour. Under all that mud is a lawn, now buried.

Debbie’s Porch and Front Door

This is what Debbie came home to, after fleeing to Glen Oaks Saturday night. Sunday morning, Don Case brought her the Sunday paper, and offered his help. This, the man in the photo with Buddha, who lost everything in the Basin Fire. Don, if you read this, you epitomize the Big Sur Spirit!

Oh, Debbie! Thank you so much for sharing your story and your photographs. They are both just so heart-wrenching. I look at these, and remember all the wonderful 4th of July parties we had out here in this garden, in the sun belt! I’ll have to locate one of my photos from then (on the other computer?) and post so people can see how beautiful it is, when not covered in mud!

And here is later in the day: “Blaze to the Rescue!”

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Storm Watch, 11/1/08

HEADS UP, EVERYONE!

jack is reporting: Posted by Jack

Mud is flowing onto Hwy 1 between Fernwood and Pfeiffer Big Sur State Park.
Redwood Creek is flowing over the culvert bridge/driveway inside the park.

9 PM Highway One reported closed 4 miles south of Lucia. Cal-Trans reports:   [IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA] 

    IS CLOSED FROM 7.9 MI NORTH OF GORDA TO 6.2 MI NORTH OF PFEIFFER BURNS
STATE PARK (MONTEREY CO) AT 2053 HRS ON 11/1/08 – DUE TO ROCKS IN THE ROADWAY – 
MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE 

 I am on back-up power, so won’t be reporting until tomorrow am, but Dave Allen reports that the rains are significant in Carmel, about an hour ago, which means it will be arriving here shortly. PLEASE, stay safe, everyone!

6:30 PM – we are just over 1/2 an inch at the moment, around .6. So far, so good. However, I note roadway flooding is being reported in the NB lane of Highway 17 up in Santa Cruz County at the moment. Hope that is not indicative of what is coming our way. According to the NOAA precipitation map (see 2008 Winter Conditions link) Ben Lomand has received 3.4 inches in the last 24 hours. Mining Ridge (closest to me of the permanent reporting gauges) is showing .67, consistent with what I am reporting.

1/2 inch by 4:30 PM

Only 1/4 inch by 2 PM.

11:15 AM – Rain has begun, a little early. What better way to spend a Saturday than watching the rain gauge? Oh, and you might note, I added a new link category, “2008 Winter Conditions” to the blog roll, and turned off some of the fire-related ones. Here you will find links to Cal-Trans, CHP, Weather, and surfire2008. While I will post important information from all sites here, you may also want to check yourself. The fire-related links be back next fire season. For the next four months or so, 2008 Winter Conditions will be much more important for us to stay abreast. I will add more helpful links, as I find them.

9:30 AM – Winds picking up. Everything is either covered, closed, and/or battened down. Rain gauge emptied. I am ready. Here’s the national weather report:

DAY ONE...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT 
A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WITH 1-3 INCHES
OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WETTER LOCATIONS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS OF MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS IMMINENT.

7:30 AM – No rain overnight. Season total = .50 inches. Will report throughout the day.