Day: March 22, 2011

Evening updates, 3/22/11

9 pm – it has been a long, interesting day. I am signing off for the evening, and will be back as soon as I have my coffee, get the gennie started, and get my day started in the am. Not going to be early, I don’t think. I’m getting a little tired. I’ve lost track, but I think it has been a week tomorrow. It started raining about an hour ago, but so far, relatively gentle, but now the wind is picking up. Great. Good night.

First, Pacific Valley School schedule for Weds. 3/23:

I’m forwarding the weather advisory that was emailed to us by Ron Eastwood at the Monterey County Office of Education. As a result of his email Raeanna at Pacific Valley School has decided to start school at
10:00 a.m. and be dismissed at 3:00 p.m. This is a safety measure to insure students and staff can arrive safely. If you feel as though the weather conditions are not safe we will certainly understand if you do not send your child to school. Some students have been sent home with home study packets so they should be continuing ahead on them. Since we’ll be starting at 10:00 we will not be serving breakfast but will serve lunch at 12:15 – 12:30 p.m.

Bus Times are: Morning Glory pick up at 9:15 a.m
Lucia pick up at 9:20ish a.m.
Cal Trans pick up at 9:50ish a.m.

Please adjust the afternoon drop off time with the bus leaving PV at 3:00 p.m. and heading south first then going to Lucia/Morning Glory.
Thank you for bearing with us during these winter storms.

Lisa Gering
**********************************************************************
Second, a flash flood watch has been issued. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH .. LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST.

THIS IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
*********************************************************************
And here is the “good” news (kate being facetious)
SATL IMAGERY IS INDC THAT THE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST (NEAR 37/129) IS MOVING ENE AT THIS TIME…AND IS INTENSIFYING.

MODELS BEGIN THE RAIN THIS EVENING…WITH THE RAIN BECOMING MODERATE…OR EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN THROUGH THE TPW`S ARE LESS THAN ONE INCH…THERE IS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT…WHICH IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE…RAINFALL RATES COULD BECOME EXCESSIVE. THEREFORE…A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY (ALSO INCLUDING THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY). WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TONIGHT…BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS…DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES… ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE SATURATED SOILS ARE VERY POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 IS INDC A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WED AFTN AND EVENING…SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT.

RIGHT ON THIS SYSTEMS HEELS WILL BE THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION RAINS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD EVEN BE STRONGER THAN THE SYSTEM TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL COULD BE EXCESSIVE AT TIMES…SO IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ONCE AGAIN.

bigsurkate is up and running again

Okay, wordpress decided to go into cardiac arrest or something in the middle of the rumors and facts of a new slide on the south coast. I was unable to post for over 3 or 4 hours – and went into withdrawals. How could I keep people posted? Phone calls increased, and if CBs were still in fashion, I would have used that. There are lots of ways to get the word out, but the phone and email seems to be the primary.

My current advice about the south end of highway one is that it is moving in several places. Willow Creek Maintenance Crew is doing their usual stellar job, for which they have our undying gratitude. However, they do not work after dark, so try to get through before then. Secondly, Nacimiento-Fergusson Rd. is in great shape, but is not advised for travelers as it is quite dangerous and unforgiving.

Lastly, be aware, be informed, and be prepared. I carry in my Commander a sleeping bag, an emergency first aid kit I bought for the Amazon (away from pharmacies, except Mother Nature’s), water, a battery operated lantern, snacks, and miscellaneous articles I would want with me if I were stranded. I suggest you get your own kit ready for the duration.

I have an article I wrote today that I will put up later tonight or tomorrow.

Now, I will update road conditions, weather reports, and the like before I get dinner ready.

March 22, 2011 Road and Weather Status Reports

Big Sur River and the little waterfall, which is now a good=sized one!

Big Sur River, 3/22/11 by Debbie Reed

Remember that sweet, hidden little waterfall I post photos of every so often? Well, look at it now.
Hidden waterfall, 3/22/11 by Debbie Reed

10:00 am – below is a google map of the area of the slide.

Google Map sent by Sterling Doughty

Some of us are wondering (and some of us doing more than wondering, but investigating) whether or not a work around might be possible as a temporary solution until one lane can be opened for local traffic only. However, a vehicular road would require at least one stream crossing (I’ve heard as many as 3) – definitely something presenting a myriad of obstacles. Overcoming all the anticipated problems mike take longer than the estimate for the repair of Highway One.

9:30 am – just spoke with Collin Jones of Cal-Trans about the current status. He wants everyone to know, particularly our businesses and tourists, that they are doing everything they can to get this road opened as soon as possible, but that April 16th is still the best current estimate. They are concerned about getting the site secured, and will have that accomplished soon, he believes. Cal-Trans understands the desire to have a foot path open, but there are three reasons that is not feasible at the moment. The first is the instability of the road itself; second, are the heavy rains expected later today, Thursday, and Saturday; lastly, the contract has been awarded and large heavy equipment, including two very large tractor-trailers are on their way to the site shortly. It will be crucial for us to stay out of their way in order to get this problem fixed.

From NOAA: AS OF 9:10 AM PDT TUESDAY…RADAR IS INDC SHOWERS OFF THE COAST…A COUPLE OF THEM LOOK TO BE MODERATE OR BRIEFLY HEAVY…. MODELS BRING QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY…AS THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE SLOW MOVING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY…BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE SATURATED SOILS THERE WILL BE THE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN DURING THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM12 IS INDC PRETTY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WED AFTN ACROSS THE DISTRICT…SO WILL PROBABLY EXPAND THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN…CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE ALSO HYDRO CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM…WILL CONSIDER WHETHER TO UPGRADE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THE AFTN PACKAGE…AFTER THE 12Z ECMWF COMES IN.

9:00 am – Back on for the day, busy gathering information. A mixture of blue sky and high and low clouds. Expecting rain later. If the clouds ever lift from Cone Peak, I will take a photo.

Still sifting through emails, reports, etc. but will bring everyone up-to-date when I am.