Rain Totals & Dirt Road Report

First, so none of you panic, I have had no reports of any problems on Highway One, thus the “dirt” in my title. A couple of yahoos showed up at my place a bit ago, on foot. They had gotten themselves stuck in a “ditch” in the middle of the road. I sent an email to Sherry Tune about this. I have been literally begging the USFS to grade this road for YEARS! Last time it was graded was the Plaskett II fire of 2000. These yahoos are really lucky that Rock Knocker just happened to stop by my place today, or they would be outta luck. My neighbor’s car is in the shop, and Rock Knocker is giving him a ride on Monday to go pick it up, and I won’t go out when conditions on Plaskett are this bad, so I would have lent them my phone to call 805-927-HELP, Cambria AAA, who is the only one who will come up here, and it is damn expensive!

On to rain totals, my gauge read .9 this morning, which is all that I recorded for yesterday’s downpour. I have doubts about the accuracy of that reading, however. Debbie, in Big Sur Valley, reports just under 1.5 inches for that neck of our neighborhood.

Warmer, drier weather supposedly on the way for this next week.

Two storm fronts colliding

Late this afternoon, my neighbor and I got to view what probably few people see. Souh of Plaskett, winds were blowing to the north. One could see it on the ocean. North of Plaskett, the winds were blowing to the south, with a maelstrom on the ocean where they met. I can only guess that it was two fronts meeting. What a strange phenomena! Neither my neighbor or I had ever seen anything like it!

Veterans Day

This ex WAC is taking the day off, trying to stay warm and dry. (except for filing the Gennie during a certainty lived break in the rain. The rest if the day is fir movies and books, and I have a new one of each!

Rain started here about 11, and it was quite heavy until about 2. Now it is gentle. I suspect a leak in my rain gauge, so I doubt my reading is accurate. Currently, it reads 6/10ths of an inch. Last rain, there was 1/2 an inch in the gauge, next reading, there was nada. Thus, my conclusion about the leak. I have received no notices re the road, but would check the CHP site, if you are traveling Highway Ine today. Taking the day off, I hope.

Upcoming weather

Okay, so NOAA is confused about what is going to happen with the weather. This is what they had to say as of this afternoon

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT…AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE MORE BULLISH WITH THE SPEED AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR THE DISTRICT…BRINGING RAIN INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND MOVING THE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE GFS/NAM/WRF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER OFF THE COAST AND BASICALLY KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN OFFSHORE…AS WELL AS HOLDING OFF TIL FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN AFFECTS THE DISTRICT. THESE MODELS ALSO KEEP A MORE SE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS…WHICH IS DOWNSLOPE FOR MONTEREY AND SALINAS…AND IS NOT A FAVORED OROGRAPHIC SOLUTION. ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT.

BTW, as of 4 pm – there is nothing on the NEXRAD radar!

Sudden Oak Death

Kerri sent me this memo. I reproduce only a part of it, as it is quite long. Also, I want to note, that I was one of the landowners who volunteered for this study, however, I found out from Kerri, they are not following through, or didn’t this last time anyway, on my property.

The University of California, Davis, has active and ongoing research in the Big Sur region to understand the interactions between Sudden Oak Death (SOD) and local ecosystems. In collaboration with more than 40 landowners, we established 280 ecological monitoring plots throughout Big Sur in 2006-07, and continue to survey these areas each year since. We seek to document the range of Phytophthora ramorum (the pathogen responsible for SOD), what forest characteristics encourage its establishment and spread, and the impacts the disease has on all aspects of the ecology of our local forests. P. ramorum is a non-native pathogen that is causing widespread tree mortality throughout coastal California forests, and the Big Sur study is important and unique for its wide geographic scope.
To address these research questions, we collect a variety of ecological data including the size, health, growth and survival of trees and shrubs, the presence of P. ramorum and other pathogens or pests, and environmental characteristics like canopy openness or soil chemistry. Following the 2008 Basin and Chalk fires, we have also directed a lot of research effort towards understanding how SOD and wildfire may interact in impacting the forests. The major data collection efforts in this study have included:
2006-07: establishment of plots in the forest monitoring network and collection of baseline data
2008: survey of burn severity indicators in a subset of plots that burned in the Basin Complex
2009: widespread survey of tree mortality in plots affected by the fire, by SOD, by both or neither.
2010-11: detailed surveys in redwood and mixed-evergreen habitats of tree growth, and fuel accumulation to compare separate and joint impacts of SOD and fire and forest recovery from disturbance.
Many results from this study are making important contributions to management efforts and to our scientific understanding of the ecology of Big Sur’s forest. Some of the major results include:
• SOD is selective in the trees it kills: Coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia), Shreve Oak (Quercus parvula), and tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus) die from the disease. Tanoak dies in the highest numbers, and large tanoak stems dying faster than small stems.1 These results document a forest composition shift as we lose susceptible oaks and tanoaks leaving non-susceptible species like California bay laurel (Umbellularia californica) and coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens).
• Diversity is important: plots that have a higher diversity of tree species seem to be at a lower risk of disease.2
• The relationship between SOD and fire is complex: Fuels are much greater in infested plots than uninfested plots, but burn severity depends on the progression of the disease and the ways the fuels change through time. Especially problematic are the brief windows where there are many standing, newly dead trees or areas where logs have accumulated a deep fuelbed.3 Firefighters reported difficulty fighting the Basin Fire because of these fuel accumulations,4 and elsewhere in CA, SOD fuels have been linked to how firefighting resources may need to be allocated differently than in areas without SOD.5 Although the disease does not directly affect coast redwoods, fewer redwoods survived the fires in areas where the disease was present, perhaps because increased fuels caused the fire to burn longer.6
• The 2008 fires suppressed, but did not eliminate, P. ramorum: Immediately following the fires, we found the pathogen in only about 20% of the burned areas it had previously been known to occupy. Since then, two wet years with late spring rains have helped the pathogen spread through its former range and expand into new areas. Sites were more likely to contain the pathogen after the fire if they’d had a higher prevalence of SOD pre-fire and if there were surviving bay laurel trees, the main source of P. ramorum inoculum.7 The most recent expansions of the pathogen are surprisingly in hotter, drier areas and include parts of the Stone Ridge Trail below Cone Peak, upper Dolan Ridge just north of Big Creek Reserve, the South Coast Ridge road just below Chalk Peak, the south side of the Prewitt loop and high up on the ridges of Plaskett ridge and Los Burros road.

What’s next? The Rizzo Plant Pathology lab at UC Davis was recently awarded a National Science Foundation grant that will allow us to continue our research on the effects of disturbance by Phytophthora ramorum and interactions with wildfire, the natural background disturbance in Big Sur. We will continue to work with landowners and managers to collect these valuable data and to apply our findings to forest management problems so that we may provide scientific support for informed management decisions. We are grateful to the many residents of Big Sur and managers at various agencies that have given us permission to work on their land and make this important research possible.

Servants of the Sur

I was reading through the comments to my blog for the last few months, looking for a specific one, and came across one that honored Montgomery London as a “servant of the Sur.” It stopped me in my quest, and I realized, we are all “servants of the Sur” — residents and visitors, alike. Each of us, in our own way, serves Her. Her spirit, Her wildness, Her depth – She demands service from us. Each of us has shared experiences, but there are also those very private ones that are ours alone.

A week ago, I again spotted an illusive mountain lion. I have been fortunate to see her on a number of occasions, and each has its own magic. One of my favorites was when my mother was with me and we saw her together.

I serve the Sur. But she takes care of me in ways that another person, being, entity could not. She nurtures me, my soul, my creativity, and gives me the love of a Great Mother.

For me, two of the seasons are always challenges – winter storms, cold, road closures, and all the challenges surrounding winter events

– summer heat, bugs, clueless campers, fires and all the challenges surrounding summer events.

But in the end, my soul soars in Big Sur, and I am her willing servant.

Just a note, nice weather on the way, work has piled up to such an extent is screaming for my attention, so I might not be around for a few days, unless there is an emergency.

More Rain?

What the heck? I thought the .50 inches of rain I got last night/early morning were it. There was even some sun, but what is this? At 3 pm, I have a dog who wants to come in, and her black coat is sprinkled with the “diamonds” that are the tell-tale signs of rain, so I went outside to check that the gennie was covered, and sure enough — rain!

I’ve been working hard at work, staying warm, and taking care of a household of 4 dogs, who sometimes all want out and in at different times. Some days, I think my only exercise is getting out from under the computer to let in/out four dogs. What’s a mother to do?

“AS OF 2:39 PM PDT SUNDAY…LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO SANTA CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD…WITH THE HEAVIEST ECHOES OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.”

Of course! Enjoy the rest of your Sunday.

Temperatures & Weather Conditions

Here it comes:


At almost 9 am – it is 40 degrees. Mother Nature looks as if she is not willing to wait until late tonight or early tomorrow morning to wait to rain down on us, but then, I worked until late last night, and didn’t see the weather report. So, this morning I go to the NOAA forcast discussion.

“LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL ON THE BOTH THE TIMING AND PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ONE THAT MOVED THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM…GFS…AND ECMWF ALL FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE TENTH TO A HALF INCH RANGE FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN A HALF INCH IN SOME OF THE WETTER LOCATIONS GIVEN THAT AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA CURRENTLY SHOWS A NARROW PLUME OF NEARLY ONE INCH PWS FLOWING ALONG 40N AND INTO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR IN THE COLD AND UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT.”

Okay, I’ve a full day of work ahead, a pot of 15 bean soup already set to simmering all day, and the rain coming so need to make sure all prior preparations are still in effect. That’s my Saturday. Hope yours is great, wherever you are.

4 am Weather Watchers

Oh, what a racket I woke to! I have a metal roof, so the sound of rain, if gentle is refreshing. If pounding – it is amplified! This morning, I was awakened from a sound sleep. Shortly after, hail – significant hail – join the din assaulting my ears. Then thunder and lightning join in. By 5 am, all is quiet. Little did I know (or frankly care, at 5 am!) that the quiet was attributable to snow. In November! I woke to a nice blanket. Closer inspection revealed it to be a combination of snow and hail. At almost 11 am, it is only 42 degrees. Nothing a pair of silk long johns, long socks and a sweater won’t handle. I received .75 inches, for a total of 6.65 for the season. Big Sur Station and the Grange both report .50 for the storm.

Snow on Cone Peak, of course, but I can’t get a shot of it, due to the clouds, so this one taken about 10:30 am out my back door.

It is not the best shot, and I really should have gotten out of my warm, down-comforted bed at the crack of dawn for a good shot – but what can I say? I can be lazy that way. 😉

Rain & Weather

I had a light rain around 2:30 pm. It has been on and off since then. This is what NOAA has to say about what we can expect.

“AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY…COLD FRONT IS HEADING THROUGH OUR CWA AT THIS HOUR WITH KMUX RADAR CLEARING SHOWING AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SF BAY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS FRONT TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND IT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BASED OFF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PLUS RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS CURRENTLY FEEL A BIT LESS BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS WE WILL SEE IN THIS SCENARIO. THEREFORE…POPS WERE DROPPED A BIT. DEFINITELY FEEL THAT OUTSIDE OF A STRAY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER…WE WILL SEE PRECIP TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW SO ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW/SMALL HAIL MIX DOWN TO AROUND 3000 FEET.”