3:45 pm – I just came across an excellent article by John Lindsey, a meterologist in SLO on several possible reasons why the storm door is now open. It is worth your time to read.
https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/weather/weather-watch/article223980785.html
10:45 – From NWS – Radar indicates a strong cell near the Point Sur lighthouse. Heavy rain may cause localized flooding. Strong winds to 40 mph possible as well.
The storm forecast has changed and gone up significantly with heavy rain predicted Sunday evening and overnight, Jan. 6th into Jan. 7th. Crews will assess tomorrow morning (Sunday, Jan. 6) and continue to monitor the forecast.
There is a high likelihood Hwy. 1 at Mud Creek (PM 8.9) and Paul’s Slide (PM 21.6) will each close by 5 pm tomorrow, Sunday, Jan. 6.
An update will be provided by noon tomorrow after staff assessment is made.
2 pm –
9:30 am – still a bit windy, but also a steady rain for the last hour or so. Loving the sound. Due to the generosity of a teacher at Pacific Valley School and her husband, I now have a truckload of firewood to see me through these storms. I am feeling rich, so splurging with a little fire during the day, which I normally don’t do. Thank you Ellen & Bill. And thank you to Rock Knocker who delivered it and stacked it, much inside in my fireplace room so I don’t have to brave the cold, windy, rain.
5:45 am – from the NWS: “Those along the northern and central California coastlines, including the Bay Area, should keep their eyes open for strong to briefly severe thunderstorms, especially, later today. Severe thunderstorms may contain damaging winds, waterspouts, and tornadoes.”
I will add to this post as necessary throughout the day, but weather forecasters are saying “the storm door is open” and expect rain for much of this next week.
Off to stock up on supplies, but wanted to post this first:
Friday will be a transitional day with increasing clouds, warmer overnight lows and southerly winds as an intense storm develops off the Northern California coastline.
The models are indicating that a 975 millibar low-pressure system will be centered about 100 miles west of Cape Mendocino on Friday with the associated cold front moving through the Central Coast on Saturday with moderate gale-force to strong gale-force (32 to 46 mph) southerly winds along the coastline and moderate to heavy rain. Rain showers are expected on Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. Total rainfall amounts are forecast to range between 1.00 and 1.75 inches. This storm will also produce snow across the Sierra Nevada above 5,000 feet with more than a foot of snow possible over the higher terrain.
Partly cloudy and dry weather is expected on Monday, before another low-pressure system brings additional wet and unsettled weather next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
(Graphic by NoCal NWS. Prediction by John Lindsey of PGE, SLO)
I will be interested in seeing how the predicted storm waves of today will impact the sea wall at Mud Creek.
The water you see above (shiny spot) is from waves pounding OVER the sea wall. The sea wall has taken a beating, even before this storm and today’s monster waves! Love to see it tomorrow.
From NOAA Forecast Discussion - button up!
(new editing format by WP is resulting in formatting issues.
I hate when wp decides to change what works for something that doesn’t)
”Unlike previous storm system this one will have plenty of moisture to work with.
Latest TPW imagery puts values of 1-1.5" or 150-200% percent of normal.
Simply put there is moisture to work with.
Atmospheric River guidance has been rather consistent
for several days now indicating IVT over 500 kg/m/s,
which would fall into the moderate category
and be one of the stronger ARs of the 2018 season.
Once the upper level TROUGH arrives Sunday afternoon it will
help to push the FRONT through the region.
Additionally, the upper level TROUGH will increase upper level support and increase overall INSTABILITY.
Model guidance shows rather decent surface and mid- level INSTABILITY Sunday afternoon through early Monday.
Decided to add a 15-20% CHC of thunderstorms with the FROPA.
It should be noted that the Storm Prediction Center
has a large portion of CA in a general mention
of thunder Sunday into Monday.
Given the landfalling AR and convective potential
there could be a brief period of moderate to heavy rainfall
leading to minor flooding/ponding on roads and urban areas.
A more showery regime will set up late Sunday night over northern areas behind the FRONT and then slowly spread S and E Monday afternoon.
Rainfall totals tonight through Monday will be greatest over the North Bay and coastal mountains 1-3" - locally 3+" North Bay Peaks and Santa Lucias.”
Repeat: Locally, over 3” in the Santa Lucias.
This is a commissioned piece by Phoebe Palmer. It was about 10′ long and about 1500 pounds with over 10,000 3 color glazed and shaped ceramic tiles. We delivered it to the client in Cayucos. (From Peter Fels)
Welcome to December! Here is John Lindsay’s weather forecast from yesterday:
“A low-pressure system and cold front will produce increasing southerly winds and will spread rain across the Central Coast later on Tuesday into Wednesday with rain showers on Thursday. Total rainfall amounts with this system should range between 1.00 and 2.50 inches. Snow elevations are expected to raise to 5,000 feet.
The long-range models are indicating wet and unsettled weather continuing through the first part of December. In fact, the long-range models are advertising a potentially stronger system moving into the Central Coast next weekend.”
From this morning’s NOAA forecast discussion:
“The last few GFS and Canadian runs have given up on rain chances for next weekend but the latest ECMWF still shows a chance of rain. Longer range guidance still honing in on additional systems around Dec 10-11th. The active and wet start to rainy season looks to continue.”
**TRAFFIC ADVISORY**
CALTRANS RE-OPENS TEMPORARY CLOSURE OF HWY. 1 AT MUD CREEK AND PAUL’S SLIDE
MONTEREY COUNTY —After two days of significant storm activity, Caltrans’ Geotechnical Design, Construction and Maintenance staff investigated site conditions this morning. Although crews are still working, the plan is to reopen the road in the areas of Mud Creek (PM 8.9) and Paul’s Slide (PM 21.6) on State Route 1 in the Big Sur area by 12 noon today, Friday, Nov. 30.
Caltrans’ Geotech, Maintenance and Construction units will continue to be on call and prepared to inspect/clean up during the daylight hours following each storm when it is safe to be onsite again. Caltrans’ intent is to open the roadway as quickly and safely as possible and our staff remains on-call 24/7.
Reminder: When significant storms are forecasted by NOAA, the continuing protocol will be to send a 48-hour traffic advisory for the public to be ready in case the roadway needs to close due to an expected significant storm. This will allow time for the public to prepare for the closure, stock up on necessary supplies and make plans. At the 24-hour mark, we will send a traffic advisory either confirming the full closure or providing additional information. These 48 and 24-hour notices apply only to Paul’s Slide and Mud Creek—each closure will be treated separately (two separate closures, one may open, the other may not, depending on assessment).
From Monterey County Public Works:
Big Sur residents and those living between the Paul’s Slide and Mud Creek closures: please be aware that there is a tree down on Nacimiento Fergusson Rd near Coast Ridge road. County Public Works crews stationed in San Ardo are mobilizing tonight to clear the road and will make every effort as long as it is safe to do so.
Thanks Kate – Maia
