Coming El Niño?

There are a lot of articles beginning to circulate about a possible very strong El Niño winter. Comparisons are being made to the El Niño of 1997-1998.

From a listing of historical floods in Monterey County going back to 1911 compiled by the MCWRA:

February 1998
In February 1998, a series of “El Niño” winter storms hit various parts of California, and particularly Monterey County. Close timing of the rainfall events contributed to intense flooding, in that heavy rain would continually hit ground that was still saturated from the previous rain. An estimated 50 roads and highways were closed or restricted, in most cases due to washouts, landslides, and mudslides. Several communities were evacuated, particularly the entire town of Pajaro near Watsonville, all residents of the Sherwood Lake Mobile Home Park near Carr Lake in Salinas, and portions of Bolsa Knolls and Toro Estates. Drinking water quality warnings remained in effect for certain areas for some time afterward. By the end of the first week of February, at least 6,600 homes and businesses had been without power for varying periods of time. The State Governor declared Monterey County, amongst others, a disaster area.

The most significant type of damage involved land and mudslides. In particular, the Las Lomas area experienced severe damage of eight residential parcels which Monterey County acquired, through the Federal Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, removing all property improvements. Each parcel was subsequently rezoned to “open space” in perpetuity.

County-wide, losses resulting from the February 1998 events are estimated at over $38 million, with specifically agriculture-related losses totaling over $7 million and involving approximately 29,000 damaged acres.
historical Floods in Monterey County

And here are the most recent ENSCO reports from NWA/NOAA

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Historically, Spring predictions are often inaccurate on these, but the May 8th report promises to be more enlightening.

Big Sur Ski Report (that got your attention)

I tried to post this when it happened, or the day after, or the day after that … But …

Here is a photo

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Storm #1, 3/31/14

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9:30 pm – rain picked up considerably. It’s from that lower storm on radar shot tweeted by NWS. Currently .83″

Another two hours, i.e. 6:15 pm, and my rain gauge informs me that I have gotten .72″ for the storm, thus far. Currently 36 degrees and the snow forecast symbol is showing! Be interesting to see if that is accurate!

With 5 dogs going out to pee several times a day, in the rain, that’s 20 muddy paws each time, one can only imagine what my hardwood floor looks like. I’m going to build them their own mud room with mud-colored painted plywood floors. All sealed nice and proper.

Wow, the sun is trying to peek through, and we might just get a glimpse for sunset.

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Two hours later, my gauge says it is raining cats ‘n dogs. 2.47″/hour in lay terms. In two hours we actually received .63″ – I had to go out in it to get one of my dogs to come in. He was hiding underneath the deck. Silly dog. Didn’t want to come out into the rain.

2:15 – the barometer is dropping rapidly, the rain has begun, and the temp, which started at 42 at dawn, and got up to a whopping 43, is now dropping, and with the wind chill is at 37. I started my fire also at dawn, and thus, have kept it into the 70’s inside. Looking forward to hunkering down in front of the fire for the rest of the afternoon with a nice, brainless mystery. Enjoy, Nd keep us posted about what is going on in your neck of the Central Coast.

This was last night’s radar.

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Upcoming Stormy Weather, 3/31/14

We’ve got another nice storm coming in tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. This is what the NWS is predicting for Monday – Wednesday

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They are also predicting thunder and lightning on Tuesday, as well as possible snow down to about 3,000 ft. Tomorrow night.

Got the 3rd part of the Don Harlan series coming up first thing tomorrow morning, so, will start storm coverage and road conditions late afternoon or evening. >

Rain, 3/29/14

Final rain total for storm – .73″ – not bad. Hopefully, even more from the next storm.

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9:00 pm – .36″ thus far for the storm; a dismal 3.99″ for March, and 13.24 for the season. Horrible totals. The only good news is that the barometer is slowly falling, so maybe we can expect more tonight, AND, there are 2 more storms on tap for this upcoming week.

7:00 pm – up to 1/4″ from the last two hours, let’s hope it continues! But save some for Cambria, which needs it for more than I do!

5:00 pm – I have been watching FB reports from friends from the Peninsula on down through the Big Sur Valley area to the Hermitage reporting on rain start times. I kept wondering when it would get to me. It usually only takes 1-2 hours after hitting Monterey, depending on how fast moving it is. Tonight, it got to my mountain just at 5 pm, or almost 4 hours after Big Sur saw her first drops. Slow moving storm, clearly. It is just a light rain at this point, but all is wet, and I fed the cats on the wood box under the eves so they and their food could stay dry. I’ll keep an eye on the road and other conditions. If you hear thunder, add a comment with time and place, if you can.

BTW, the last storm I received .78″ of rain, nice. A lot more than most, even my neighbors on Alms Ridge, who only saw .5″. Let’s hope we get a similar amount from this one.