Very strong El Niño + record warm Pacific = wild California winter

Daniel Swain of Weather West has an excellent discussion of what is ahead for California this winter, including graphs and visuals of all sorts.

He says, among other things that this “top-tier” El Niño is no longer a prediction, but an organizational reality.

“In the lead-up to this pattern shift, Californians should probably expect highly variable conditions (and rather unreliable weather forecasts in the short term), as these kinds of transitions are notoriously hard to capture. But there is now pretty high confidence that a fairly dramatic change in the weather is on the horizon—most likely days or weeks, rather than months, in the future.”

Fascinating reading here:

Weather West

Rain, Road Conditions, and other Sunday Musings

5:00 pm – final rain tally: .55″ nice

This is just north of the construction zone at Cow Cliffs by Big Creek, although CHP puts it north of Lucia. Yes, it is north of Lucia, but so is Nepnthe. I’ve been seeing the cow cliffs area referred to this way for a while. CORRECTION IT IS SOUTH OF LUCIA NEAR DIFFERENT CONSTRUCTION.

2 [5] 1039 27-S3
10:24 AM 1 [2] LARGE BOULDER / BLOCKING NB LANE
Unit Information
10:32 AM 1 Unit Assigned

10:30 am – I wrote a post an hour ago and thought it was published, but I see no indication of same. Strange. I’ll try again. I was awake at 5:00 am, so when the rain started at 5:45, I was ready. Once it startd, it poured. My gauge measured .20″ in 15 minutes. I was without power, but not completely without Internet, and  couldn’t post, until I started the genie at 9:30 am. I had received .48″ by 8:30 am. There were some road problems, 10 flooded at Harnell, for sample. Lots of traffic accidents, though.

Welcome, El Niño. Nice to have you pay us a visit. Be safe, everyone!

Culvert Repair, Carmel Highlands, Thursday, 11/12

MONTEREY COUNTY – An emergency culvert repair project will take place on Highway 1
at Highland Drive in Carmel Highlands for one day only on Thursday, Nov. 12, Caltrans
officials have announced.

Motorists will encounter one-way reversing traffic control with flagging on northbound Hwy.
1 at Highland Dr. from 9 am to 12 noon on Thursday, Nov. 12 only.

Motorists can expect a delay not to exceed 15 minutes.

This project will repair a deteriorated culvert to improve drainage in preparation for winter
rains.

Foto Friday, Yosemite, 11/6/15

So gorgeous up here … Too bad I am in classes all day. Still managed a few shots. Maybe more tomorrow.

image image image image

Wildfire, LPF, Santa Barbara County – Gilbraltar Fire

From CAL FIRE at 0919 hrs.

• 60-70 acres, brush, 0% contained
• Moderate Rate of Spread
• 69 degrees, 55% RH, wind NNW @ 15 mph, increase with gusts to 40-50 mph
• Structures are threatened
• 12 Tankers assigned including VLAT
• CAL FIRE air and ground resources assigned

8:00 am – A wildfire broke out at 5:30 this morning on the Los Padr s National Forest above Montecito Hills. An evacuation warning has been issued, per KSBY. This is what has posted on WildCAD:

10/29/2015 05:30 LPF-3471
P5 J4XB (0507)
GIBRALTER Wildfire Camino Cielo . AA07LPF BC51LPF BR802CHU CRW3LPF CRW4LPF DOZ3LPF DOZ4LPF E335LPF E342LPF 4X E343LPF E352LPF E41LPF E44LPF E46LPF E47LPF 4X4 E55LPF E801CHU E803CHU PAT38LPF PAT44ALPF WT3LPF WT4LPF Capt342 w/ SBC BC510 Effective 25 (acres)

West Cuesta Rd. Temporarily Closed on Los Padres

NEWS RELEASE

Los Padres National Forest
For Immediate Release
Contact: Andrew Madsen (805) 895-0841
Twitter: @LosPadresNF

West Cuesta Ridge Road Temporarily Closed on Los Padres

GOLETA, CA, October 28, 2015…Los Padres National Forest officials announced that West Cuesta Ridge Road (a.k.a. TV Tower Road) will be temporarily closed to motorized vehicles until road repairs are completed. Forest Order 15-12 is effective from November 1, 2015, through October 31, 2016, unless rescinded earlier upon completion of road repairs.

The order prohibits public motor vehicle use on West Cuesta Ridge Road (Forest Road No. 29S28). The road begins at the junction of U.S. Highway 101 at Cuesta Grade Summit and West Cuesta Ridge Road, and continues 7.1 miles northwest to Tassajara Peak.

Non-motorized recreation access, such as hiking and mountain biking, is unaffected by the order. Private residents and communication site lease holders will be allowed motorized access to their homes or business sites.

The closure order for public motorized vehicle use is needed until repairs to the road are completed and the area is safe for vehicle use. Forest officials are working with communication site lease holders to conduct environmental planning and a road repair plan to reestablish safe motorized access along this popular road in San Luis Obispo County.

“We are taking the necessary steps to responsibly develop road repair options for safe motorized access into this important area for both recreation and natural resources,” said Santa Lucia District Ranger Nathan Rezeau. “We greatly appreciate our community’s patience and understanding as we work through the repair process as quickly as possible.”

The road closure order and map of the closure area can be found on the Los Padres website at http://fs.usda.gov/lpnf. Forest visitors are encouraged to contact the Santa Lucia Ranger District at (805) 925-9538 for more detailed information about this area and for the latest conditions.

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Big Sur Road Conditions, 10/21/15

***HWY 1 TRAFFIC ADVISORY***
October 21, beginning at 9:00am from Sycamore Canyon to 1/4 mile south of Lucia, California Highway Patrol will be escorting three modular home haulers down Highway 1. Trucks may be in caravan formation or escorted separately. Please use caution as these trucks will be very slow moving and will be unescorted from Carmel to Big Sur.

Must be going to the Hermitage. I know they are replacing three of their retreat units. I postponed my town trip yesterday due to the Ride2Recovery bicycle event. Glad I decided on south tomorrow! Next week, north, so PLEASE highway goddess, no events.