11 pm – in the last hour I received two reports from Chew’s Ridge, Jessie wrote me re lots going on out there, After that, Tom Little Bear Nason posted this to his FB page: “The Fire jumped the Dozer lines over at Cahoon Ranch and is headed up Anastasia Canyon right up towards Tassajara RD and our Ranch and its raging out of control right now🔥⚠️🔥
It’s Burning fast and hit with winds up 40 mph!!!” Prayers for all.

From a comment on my FB page: “I just called the Cal fire hotline/ and they said “it did jump tassajara in one place up there and there’s a “small” (?) spotfire that they are monitoring -and sending in more resources. they ARE going to do a mandatory EVAC- but it will be up the road farther. chews Ridge to Bruce ranch-and a couple other ranches that I am not familiar with-(tosh ranch?) he didn’t seem to think that lion Springs would be evacuated and certainly not down at Jamesburg or me… at least not tonight anyway. 😁
and- that they will be doing a reverse 911 for the affected areas within the hour.”

Here are three maps Luke did up for me when I sent out a desperate cry for help (I used to be able to do these, a few fires ago, but lost that knowledge somewhere) which he most promptly offered. We don’t have the landmarks on it due to lack of time, but those in the area will recognize anything of concern to them.

7:30 pm – just spoke to a PIO at operations about some concerns I have. Strike Team from Santa Cruz and Santa Clara was toned out around 5:30 pm and there are some MODIS spots outside containment lines – but remember, MODIS is notorious for picking up heat in the columns, so we will have to wait on this for confirmation. He had not heard from operations, so was unaware of any problems out in the field. Seems communication with their own PIOs cannot be updated on conditions as fast as we would like. He will be recommending another community meeting for the Cachagua/Carmel Valley folks, but in the mean time, he encourages all of you to call the information line anytime with any concerns you have.

12:45 pm – Huge plume visible from the Eastern side of the fire. Must be more firing off operations.

Here is the VETS IR flight from this morning: (BTW, VETS is an acronym for a private company that does day-time Helicopter IR flights – usually two a day.)

 

From John Chesnut:

10:30 am – from the USFS:

Incident: The Soberanes Fire is burning in the Los Padres National Forest, Ventana Wilderness, in Monterey County, CA. The fire was started by an illegal campfire on July 22, 2016, in Garrapata State Park.
Agency Jurisdiction: CAL FIRE San Benito-Monterey Unit/Los Padres National Forest.
Incident Command: California Incident Management Team 4, Rocky Opliger, Incident Commander.

Current Size: 117,656 acres (80,462 acres CA-LPF; 37,194 acres CAL FIRE)

Containment: 67% Personnel: 2,021 Cause: Illegal campfire Injuries: 1 fatality, 7 injuries

Structures Destroyed:
57 homes, 11 outbuildings
Structures Threatened: 410
Crews: 45
Engines: 116
Helicopters: 7
Dozers: 12
Masticators: 2
Water Tenders: 11

Current Situation:

Firefighters have made strong progress on the Soberanes Fire, as evidenced by the increase in the containment level to 67%. That is an increase of 15 percent since September 13. The increase is largely due to weather conditions that contributed to favorable burnout* operations. Activity is predominantly in the south-southeast areas of the Soberanes Fire. The burnouts are key to the firefighters’ success over the past days in widening and strengthening the indirect* containment line.

The fire continues to burn in remote, rugged terrain, including in the Ventana Wilderness. Firefighter and public safety remain the priority in every situation.

Heavy smoke in the area on Sunday was the result of an atmospheric inversion that held smoke from the burnouts in the valleys. Area residents will continue to see smoke columns and atmospheric smoke today.

Winds in the region changed today, with flows now from the south and southwest. The change may mean more erratic winds affecting the fire and pushing smoke toward the east side of the fire. Continual monitoring of weather and evaluation of forecasts will be used to determine when conditions allow for burnouts.

All evacuation orders and warnings remain in effect on the southeastern side of the fire.
For more information, visit: http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/ or follow us on social media at http://www.facebook.com/LosPadresNationalForest or http://www.twitter.com/LosPadresNF.

*Burnout is intentionally burning vegetation from the indirect fire line.
**Indirect line: a fire line constructed away from the hot edge of the fire.

###

Forest Service Shield
Jennifer Gray
Visitor Information Assistant
Forest Service
Los Padres National Forest
p: 805-961-5795
f: 805-961-5729
jsgray@fs.fed.us
6750 Navigator Way, Ste 150
Goleta, CA 93117
http://www.fs.usda.gov/lpnf
Twitterhttp://wwwstatic.fs.usda.gov/images/facebook.png
Caring for the land and serving people

 

Here is John Chesnut’s map:

4:30 am – Day 60. *Sigh* Today we tied the previous record for the longest running fire in the Los Padres National Forest held by the 2007 Zaca Fire in Santa Barbara County…a dubious distinction, at best. Almost 4,400 additional acres were scorched yesterday, bringing the total to 117,656. Here are the maps:

IR Topo Map in PDF

Briefing Map in PDF

Here is the Branch III map that covers the Chew’s Ridge burning operation:

Chew’s Ridge Operations Map in PDF

And here are the weather and fire behavior predictions for both sides of the fire:

 

 

 

 

 

3:00 pm – Rana Creek Staging Area this am by Howard Jones

11:30 am – I’ve never paid quite such close attention to the winds forecasts as I have been the last two months. Here is John Lindsey of SLOs predictions: “Moderate to fresh (13 to 24 mph) northwesterly winds will develop along the coastline this afternoon, decreasing tonight. Gentle to moderate (8 to 18 mph) west to southwesterly winds are forecast on Monday into Tuesday. Fresh to strong (19 to 31 mph) northwesterly winds are forecast on Wednesday, increasing to strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) levels Thursday into Friday, decreasing over the weekend.”

So,  for me, that explains the extensive back burn while winds were favorable, because very soon, they could have really threatened Cachagua, Jamesburg, and Carmel Valley.

10:05 am – from the USFS:

**Update Soberanes Fire**
Current Size: 113,259
Containment: 61%
Personnel: 1,921
Burn out operations were successful on Saturday on the eastern edge of the Soberanes Fire. Burning occurred in the area of Chews Ridge north towards Los Padres Dam. They strategically put fire on the indirect line to prepare the area for any future fire activity. Smoke will be heavy in all areas near Carmel Valley, because of the wind directions.
Evacuation orders have been lifted for Coast Ridge Road from 1.5 miles to the Ventana Inn to the end of Coast Ridge Road at Marble Park, and roads that leave from Coast Ridge Road. Also for Big Sur South Coast Center area and Big Sur Partington Ridge area. All other evacuations orders and warnings remain in effect.
As the fire continues, operations names the number one priority as the safety of our firefighters and public.
Photos are from yesterday taken by, Hugo Patino – Public Information Officer

10:00 am – from John Chesnut: “The Sunday AM (3:50 AM) VIIRS overflight has been posted. Shows some further expansion west and south.
The fire front along the burnout is 12 miles long. Will be interesting to watch how quickly it climbs the shaded north slopes in Miller Canyon.”

8:00 am – here is John Chesnut’s google map of the burn out area:

6:45 am – Here is today’s IR flight map. It was taken at 8 pm last night, and shows an increase of almost 5,000 … Most, if not all, of it on the east side from the ambitious burnout operation undertaken this week. I will add the rest of the maps after I’ve taken care of the doggies.

IR flight map in PDF

Briefing Map in PDF

Now, I’d like to zoom in on Div SS,  as a new “fire line” has been drawn between Rodeo Flats and DP-110. What does a “fire line” mean? Take a look at the topography. I might be missing something, but there doesn’t appear to be any dozer line or hand line,  or any way of putting in either one. How can one stop or start a fire line here? I think I will be making a phone call later this am to see if I can get an explanation.

Div. SS Fire Line in PDF

Here are today’s fire behavior and weather prediction discussions for both sides of the fire:

There will be a community meeting on Monday, September 19th at the Big Sur Station (MAF) at 6:00PM. The meeting will present updated information on the Soberanes Fire from the new California Incident Management Team 4, the USFS and the Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade and will answer any questions you may have.

I think this is the longest post with the most maps, information, and photos that I have published thus far, but that’s it for tonight. Time to put this (and me) to bed. Good night, Gracie.

From 8:30 pm a new satellite pass MODIS map. This one provided by John Chesnut, again:

From Ana (Alva) Sargenti taken at 7:45 from her driveway on East Carmel Valley Road. This has got to be spooky. I think some of you on Partington Ridge, Apple Pie Ridge, etc. can relate to this, right?

From Iris McWilliams who says this is above the dam.

7:15 pm – and here is what I see from my perch south of Nacimiento. That peak in the bottom left is Cone Peak. Below the column is the drift smoke.

7 pm – I am seeing a huge plume down here, which I usually don’t see from this far away and in that direction. I’m sure my CV friends are nervous. Here is a photo just taken by Sandy O’Keefe Bellany. Don’t think my shot came out, but will see if I can fix it.

6:00 pm – from Tularcitos, taken by Emily Miller, just now.

5:45 pm – photos taken by Matthew Millea from the Galante Vineyard. What’s interesting about this photo is one can see a very small spot fire on the east side of Hennicksons Ridge in this first photo – slightly right of center on the ridge line. Keep an eye on that one.

3:30 pm – Burning Operation of the east side of the Soberanes Fire, photo by (Mike? Richard? or? – didn’t identify himself in the email) who says this: “Just shot this one of the backfire on hennicksens, looking over little bear trap Miller mountain in the background.”

At around 2 pm, by Kevin Gillman who says: “Looking south east from my deck in Trampa canyon. Henickson’s ridge burning toward the dam. Chews ridge off to the left, los Padres dam off to the right. Taken about 2 pm today.”

Now these tell a story, don’t  they?  Make sure and read all the comments on this one, as people are sharing their first hand experiences of this operation. Yesterday, after 2 days of this operation there was 2 and 1/2 miles of line burned. This morning, there was 4 miles burned. Thank  you Richard and Kevin for sharing will all of us who can’t actually see this bad boy.

One of the things I paid close attention to on my way up the mountain was the direction the wind was gently blowing, which was NW, the exact direction they would want to make this line as strong as possible. I am just amazed at what they can predict and therefore do these days. That is a positive side of technology.

(FWIW, my Nat Geo topo trail map spells that ridge “Hennicksons” (I am informed by a decendent that historically it is actually Henningsen, after his great grandparents who homesteader this ridge.)

Noon

Soberanes Fire

Los Padres National Forest

Daily Update: September 17, 2016

CONTACT: Fire Information Line: (831) 204-0446 – Email:soberanesfire2016@gmail.com

Incident: The Soberanes Fire is burning in the Los Padres National Forest, Ventana Wilderness, in Monterey County, CA. The fire was started by an illegal campfire on July 22, 2016, in Garrapata State Park.
Agency Jurisdiction: CAL FIRE San Benito-Monterey Unit/Los Padres National Forest.
Incident Command: California Incident Management Team 4, Rocky Opliger, Incident Commander.

Current Size: 108,441 acres (71,247 acres CA-LPF; 37,194 acres CAL FIRE)

Containment: 59% Personnel: 1,942 Cause: Illegal campfire Injuries: 1 fatality, 7 injuries

Structures Destroyed:
57 homes, 11 outbuildings
Structures Threatened: 410
Crews: 20
Engines: 133
Helicopters: 19
Dozers: 9
Masticators: 2
Water Tenders: 11

Current Situation:

Favorable weather continues to support the planned burnout operations on the east side of the Soberanes Fire. Crews on Friday burned out areas on the east side of Chews Ridge to extend the indirect fire line* toward the Los Padres Dam. Burnout operations** have completed approximately 4 miles of line.

Today, operations will continue north from Bear Trap towards Los Padres Dam. Structure protection is in place within the immediate area.

The incident strategy is personnel and public safety, while protecting values at risk in the remote, rugged terrain of the Soberanes Fire area. Additional resources are in place to support the current operations.

As temperatures continues to rise and the relative humidity decreases, fire activity will increase. With increased fire activity the public can expect to see additional smoke in the fire area.

The fire is 59% contained. As the burnout operations progress and the indirect line is strengthened, the containment percentage will continue to rise.

Laurel Springs Road continues to have heavy use of fire equipment traffic. The public is advised to avoid the road.

All evacuation orders and warnings remain in effect.

For more information, visit: http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/ or follow us on social media at http://www.facebook.com/LosPadresNationalForest or http://www.twitter.com/LosPadresNF.

*Indirect fire line is a fire line constructed away from the hot edge of the fire.
**Burnout is intentionally burning vegetation from the indirect fire line.

7:30 am – from John Chesnut:

“No overnight IR flight (there is a read me explicitly stating this). [reproduced below]
There is a IR helicopter flight from 3:40 Friday in the VETS folder.

VIIRS satellite shown substantial expansion of the Chews Ridge Burn”

7 am – another smoke-free day on the west side of this monster. Could not locate an IR flight map from last night, but found this:

“Soberanes, CA Wildfire Overview – 17 September 2016
c. XXXX UTC
Weather Conditions –
No data was available for analysis.

Details –
No data was received for this wildfire. No products were produced or provided.

Acreage –
Estimated Acreage: 108,031 (As of 16 September 2016)
Acreage Change (if any): +N/A”

This is what the “read me text” for the IR flight says, so it would appear that no flight was done last night, or if one was, the data for it was unavailable for interpretation.

I do, however have some of the other maps I usually provide. I will be gone this morning, and probably unavailable until afternoon sometime.

Briefing Map in PDF

 

Operations Map in PDF

Div UU VETS Map in PDF

Div. L Map in PDF

And here are the fire behavior and weather prediction discussions for both sides of the fire: