(Salmon Creek on Monday)

Sorry I haven’t gotten around to posting the notes from the BSMAAC meeting nor updated the Cal-Trans project. I’m a busy lady. Will try to get to that tomorrow.

Two storms headed our way. The first, Sunday afternoon through Monday is not expected to bring as much rain as the Tuesday through Wednesday system.

The predictions for the Tuesday through Friday system coming through have changed, somewhat, and the Tuesday system is expected to come through relatively fast. It is still possible that it will cause some locally heavy rain, but not for the extended period previously predicted. Caution is still advised for those near the burn areas, and it is advisable to keep an eye on the forecasts, as the system gets closer, and predictions.

 

DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST SATURDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS 
ARE IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 
20S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATL IMAGERY INDC THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE DISTRICT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A 
GREAT DEAL OF DIFFICULTY WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN. THE 06Z GFS 
IS NOW MUCH DRIER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE SHORTWAVES 
MORE OF AN INSIDE SLIDER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER WITH THE 
SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINING OFF THE COAST...
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE OCEAN. WITH SUCH A LARGE 
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AS WELL AS LITTLE RUN TO RUN 
CONSISTENCY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
 FORECAST. PER THE HPC DISCUSSION HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF.

Sometimes, I feel like the NWS — only with photos!

Today, Friday, 12/19/08: A Hazardous Weather statement has been issued for next week. It reads pretty much the same as yesterday’s statement, which is reproduced below. 

Thursday, 12/18/08 – This out this afternoon about a system shaping up for next week. Pay close attention. Floods, mud, and debris flow could be in the making.

AND BIG SUR COAST-
 123 PM PST THU DEC 18 2008

 ...STORMY WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE 
FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY 
FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN 
APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 
THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH...TAPPING 
INTO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO OVER 
6000 FEET AS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SLAMS 
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY CONTINUE AT 
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS.

AS THE START OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL FIVE DAYS AWAY
...THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH 
AND TIMING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE IS INCREASING 
CONFIDENCE THAT A PERIOD OF WARMER...VERY WET AND WINDY 
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS THERE WOULD BE A 
THREAT OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...AS WELL AS 
MUD SLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER BURN SCARRED AREAS FROM 
THIS PAST SUMMER`S FIRES. PERSONS IN MONTEREY AND SANTA 
CRUZ COUNTIES WHO ARE NEAR THE BURN AREAS SHOULD PAY VERY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION SINCE IT 
APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS. 
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...VERY WINDY 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY 
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONLOCATIONS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST...STATEMENTS AND 
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS WE APPROACH 
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.

As promised, here is today’s view. A white Christmas all over California. You realize that the only way to get to SoCal is the 101, right? Everything is snowed in and freezing temperatures are expected in much of California. Naturally, the 101 freeway is packed!

Only two months ago, I was photographing fire on this mountain. Thus, the title of this post – Fire and Ice.

Hey, did anyone notice the Big Sur River webcam is offline due to a power outage? Is this the same outage that started yesterday afternoon around 1? Or is this a new one? Nepenthe’s webcam seems to be working. Hmmm…too late (11:30 pm) to get any additional. Hopefully, everything will be up by morning.

Remember, be safe, extremely cold temperatures are expected tonight and it is only 24 degrees on Chew’s Ridge, right now.

3:00 pm – Revision. I do have a good shot of the snow-covered slopes of Cone Peak taken today that I will upload sometime this afternoon or evening.

NOON – Crisp, clear, and clean describes this morning. Even though the sun is out, the snow is slow to melt in some areas. My dog ate the internal antenna for my cellular booster, making internet very slow. A replacement should be here tomorrow or Friday. In the meantime, I am a little behind on work. Enjoy the beautiful (but short-term) sun, with the snow on the mtns. and I will be back tomorrow.

6 am – Cold, it is really cold this morning. Quick report before I snuggle back under the down comforter. I still have considerable snow on the ground. Chew’s Ridge is reporting 24 degrees while Nepenthe is 44. What a difference altitude makes, huh? No more snow expected today, per forecast discussion. Have a great day, everyone.

4:30 pm – the sun came out around 3 pm, and has been busy turning everything to mud and slush. Still quite a bit of snow in the shadier portions of the property, and amazingly, the garden is still covered, but the road is completely devoid of snow, and very muddy. Before I sign off for the evening, just to remind people, it is expected to be EXTREMELY cold tonight, and there could be black ice on the roads. All forecasts models are consistent on that. What is not consistent is the amount of moisture, or exactly how low the snow levels were go. So be careful tonight, and tomorrow morning.

1:30 pm – Snowed for 45 minutes, but now the sun is trying to come out. Power out in entire “town” of Big Sur as of 15 minutes ago. PG&E has been notified.

12:30 – OMG the snow is REALLY coming down, again! NWS, I guess you were right to want to check this every 1/2 hour. Busy day up here, but not 1/2 as busy as you guys are! Last time it snowed like this, I got about an inch in less than an hour! What a winter sleigh ride!! Big flakes. BIG flakes!!

Noon – here is a shot of Cal-Trans plowing the hail in Big Sur taken around 11 am. WOOHOO!! Is this fun, or what?

And here is one of Mt. Manuel (I think – let me know if I am wrong, Debbie). Both these pic were taken by Debbie Reed of Blaze Engineering. Ain’t technology grand?

BTW, Debbie, this is an absolutely GORGEOUS shot!! You are giving some some serious competition here, girlfriend!

11 am – Cal-Trans reportedly plowing hail in Big Sur proper, per Blaze Engineering.

As of 9:30 am, the NWS extended the winter weather warning throug this afternoon. From the NWS forecast discussion:

“HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH

 THE AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO."

As promised, here is Cone Peak. If I get a better opportunity later, I will replace this, as you can see the clouds are settling down on top of it.

9:00 am and here is a photo of my road and the back of my Jeep. You see it?? Huh, huh? Trust me, it is there. I just called the Court of Appeal and let them know I was snowed in!

8:00 am – thunder, lightning, hail, and snow! What an exciting morning it is! Bear-dog has to bark at the thunder to let it know who is on guard duty. He’s going to be very busy today!

7:45 am – nice snow flurries comin’ down! I mean considerable snow. Will really add to that which is already on the ground! WOW! It is really coming down!

2-3 inches of snow being reported by CHP in the Santa Cruz Mtns. – specifically Highway 17 at county line, and Highway 35 at Bear Creek. CT plowing snow!

More snow expected tonight. White Christmas this year!

These shots were taken at 7 pm last night, while the snow was 
falling. I got additional snow during the night, but at least 
the road appears clear. If I can get a good shot of Cone Peak, 
I will post that later.
And now, this is a part of what was posted on the NWS forecast
discussion. Snow levels reported down to 1600 ft. in some areas.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:50 AM PST TUESDAY...VERY BUSY...SORRY TO
BE RUNNING LATE. SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL THE 
ZONES ABOVE 1000 FEET IN ELEVATION. (Ed note: this was added
for the morning commute, as snow reported at 1600 ft on Highway
17, and icy on San Rafael bridge in Sonoma)

OMG, it is HEAVILY snowing!! My deck is already covered with 1/2 an inch or more!! Photos by morning!! 

The snow is still on the ground, but the snow did not continue, and  my footprints still show. Tonight, KCOY out of Santa Maria is reporting snow levels down to 3K ft. tonight. (Duh) but down to 1K feet tomorrow night. I did check our local forecast discussion, and they have not changed earlier reports by much.

So, it is definitely an interesting storm. Keep it in perspective, though. When I think I am cold, I hear reports of minus 27 on the East Coast. THAT is cold!!

11 am – this is what was left over from last night’s storm, still around at 11, but only on the north side.

9:15 am – part of the forecast discussion:

SPOTTER REPORTS...CHP...AS WELL AS THE BODEGA BAY AND
 PT SUR PROFILERS ARE INDC A LOWERING SNOW LEVEL...DOWN TO 
2000 FEET. BASED ON SPOTTER REPORTS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER 
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO 
AND MONTEREY BAY AREA MOUNTAINS. THE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 
10 PM THIS EVENING.

9 am – a total of 2.0 inches of rain received yesterday and last night, bring the seasonal total to 6 inches. Check out the Big Sur River discharge rates. Quite a surge yesterday!

5 am – no snow. I checked. Lots of rain and around 3 am significant hail. Scared the dogs!

Sunday, 12/14 – NOTE: as per my usual, the most recent entries are here at the top, morning entries start at the bottom, if interested.

11 pm – Total rain today thus far, is 1 and 1/2 inches, bringing the season total to 5.5 inches. No snow, but steady heavy rain all night. I’ll check in in the morning.

7:30 pm. Dave Allen from Carmel is reporting that all hell is breaking loose. Rain, hail, thunder, lightning. I’m often up to an hour behind town reports, but I’ll let you know if “hell” comes to my mountain side! I just went out and checked my gauge, and I have received another 1/2 inch since it got dark. That brings the year’s total to 4.75 inches.

Dark, thirty. By dark, I received 1/4 inch of precipitation for the day, which was snowing, on and off. dark, it turned to rain and slush, which seems to have continued for the last hour. I will report again as necessary.

WOW!! 9:35 am BIG snowflakes!! WOW BIG snowflakes!! It rarely sticks during the day up here, unless there is a “base” from the night before, but we’ll see. 

The precipitation forecast map predicts we will get 3/4 of an inch in the next 24 hours. Temps at 9:30 am are: Chew’s Ridge, 29; Highland’s Peak, 38; Nepenthe, 46. Nepenthe is clearly the place to be this morning! And here is a portion of today’s  (12/14) forecast discussion:

INDICATIONS ARE
 THAT THE INCOMING MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE STEERED MAINLY 
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOWER 
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE MOST 
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD. PRIMARY 
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SNOW LEVELS AND QPF. 
MODEL FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE SNOW LEVELS OF BETWEEN 
2500 AND 3500 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF COOLING THAT 
HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND THE DRY AIR
STILL IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD RESULT
IN SNOW LEVELS BEING MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED...PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET TODAY IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO 
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TODAY BELOW 2000 FEET. IF SO...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEEDED. CURRENT 
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR 
SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WOULD IMPACT HIGHER ELEVATION ROADWAYS 
IN THE SF BAY AREA...EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. 
LATEST GFS...AND ESPECIALLY NAM...DIRECT MOST MOISTURE 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY
(Ed. note: That's us, boys and girls!)

I will be adding and updating this post throughout the day as I track the weather and gather my notes from the car below in two separate sections.

8 pm – nothing here but severe cold. If you go to the Chew’s Ridge weather station, at 5K ft. you will see that it is 25 degrees right now!! Brrr. bundle up, everyone! The weather station at Highland Peak (Big Creek), at 1900 ft., I believe, is showing 34 degrees and Nepenthe is recording 44 degrees.

4 pm – No snow or precipitation here, but I have a complete calm, falling temperatures, and increasing clouds with the approaching darkness. Here’s part of the latest forecast discussion. Scroll down for the earlier discussion from this morning. (I admit I had to look graupel up. From wikpedia: Graupel (also called snow pellets) refers to precipitation that forms when supercooled droplets of water condense on a snowflake, forming a 2–5 mm ball of rime; the snowflake acts as a nucleus of condensation in this process.  Graupel does not include other frozen precipitation such as snow, hail, ice pellets or diamond dust. See what an educational site this is? LOL

DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
 COLD AIR CUMULUS FILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST CONTINUE TO MOVE
 ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING HAS INCREASED ACTIVITY OF THESE
 CELLS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE SPOTTERS REPORTED GRAUPEL IN
 CORTE MADERA ASSOCIATED WITH A ISOLATED CELL THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
 EASTERN PORTION OF MARIN COUNTY. A SHORT TIME LATER LIGHT SNOW WAS
 REPORTED OVER MOUNT HAMILTON. SINCE THEN A FEW CALLS HAVE COME IN
 WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 3000 FEET. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
 THROUGH TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE
 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP.

BSMAAC Notes:

Yesterday’s meeting was interesting because much of the discussed information came up during the “non-agenda” portion of the meeting. For example, the new Monterey County Building Code Enforcement Ordinance will be coming up for a vote either Tuesday or next month. I have gone through a draft of that ordinance, and it has some serious legal flaws, which I have pointed out to a few parties to the drafting process. Second, Sam Farr is pushing for the “mapping” of all properties on the coast from just south of the Carmel Highlands to the SLO/MoCo line. The purpose of this is for firefighting protection. I expressed concern over proposed “mapping” and the code enforcement ramifications, although Kathleen Lee assured me that that was not the intent of the mapping. Intent or not, it could be an unintended consequence. I suggested “use immunity” but I’m relatively certain no one understood my point.

There will be some reports on Cal-Trans projects that I will post to that page as an update, particularly those that affect the South Coast.

WEATHER:

I have added a new link in the 2008-2008 Weather Conditions websites. Nepenthe now has an automated weather station installed as of yesterday. With the one at Chew’s Ridge and at Big Creek, both also linked to the right, we have most of the coast covered, now.

NOAA is predicting 50% rain possibilities for today and tomorrow, and rain likely for Monday and Tuesday. I will post when rains and/or snows start up here. Here is part of this morning’s forecast from 9:53 AM:

 

MODELS FORECAST COLD AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PARKS 
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST CUTTING OFF AND DROPPING SOUTH 
INTO OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING 
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 1500 
FT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A HALF OF INCH OR LESS WITH THE HILLS 
BEING THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE HIGHER ACCUMULATION DUE TO OROGRAPHICS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW SLIDES SOUTH AND
THEN ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DRAMATICALLY AS THICKNESS VALUES DROP TO 522 
DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -6 DEGREES C. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER 
ACCORDINGLY TO AROUND 1500-2000 FT. LOWER SNOW LEVEL ARE 
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE COLD POOL MOVES INTO OUR 
AREA. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS 
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY PICKING UP WHERE THE OTHER ONE LEFT 
OFF AND MAINTAINING SHOWERY AND COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE END 
OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED 
THEY MAINTAIN A WET FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Our own local USFS fire captain, Michael Boone is retiring at the end of the year!! Wow. He’s been here forever, supporting locals and our values, and providing insight and cooperation between the USFS and local inholders. Michael you have been invaluable, and will be sorely missed. Please stop by the PV Station and wish Michael well as he leaves us. Goodbye Michael. I wish you the best in your retirement!!

I’v e only missed a handful of BSMAAC meetings in the 23 years I’ve lived here, but today’s meeting was truly fascinating! It was not very well attended. I will report the “facts” tomorrow. So … until tomorrow, bigsurkate, taking the night off.

Oh, and keep an eye on weather reports. At the moment, 1/2 inch expected on Sunday.